Why you shouldn't draft Le'Veon Bell
While our own Josh Wegman argued for Pittsburgh Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell maintaining his status as a first-round pick despite an impending four-game suspension for skipping a drug test, I disagree. Rather strongly. Here's why:
Bell's four-game suspension, and it won't be reduced
Sure, the suspension was for a missed drug test and not a failed drug test - which would've been Bell's second in consecutive seasons - but lets be serious, it's the same thing.
As a repeat offender, the NFL won't take it easy on Bell; just ask Cleveland Browns WR Josh Gordon. The suspension will be upheld and Bell will miss at least the first four games of the season, which are made up of some of Pittsburgh's most appealing matchups for running backs when look at 2015's average fantasy points against (FPA) ratings for the opposing defenses:
Bell is/will be guaranteed to miss Pittsburgh's second-best RB matchup of the season, as well as two more quality games against the Redskins and Bengals. These will be matchups owners can't afford to lose when spending the pick necessary in order to acquire Bell.
Week 8 bye is yet another missed week for owners
While a bye week doesn't count toward a missed game for Bell, it does for fantasy owners. After having to wait until the fifth week of the fantasy season to insert Bell into lineups, owners will only have his services for three matchups before having to bench him again. Included in those three weeks are Pittsburgh's toughest and third-most difficult RB matchups of the season.
The schedule looks good for Bell and the Steelers beyond the bye week but a second favorable matchup against the Browns comes in Week 17, when the majority of fantasy playoffs have already been wrapped up:
| Week | Opponent | FPA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NYJ | 13.85 | 30 |
| 6 | MIA | 24.02 | 1 |
| 7 | NE | 15.78 | 24 |
| 8 | BYE | ||
| 9 | BAL | 15.57 | 27 |
| 10 | DAL | 21.44 | 7 |
| 11 | CLE | 18.45 | 13 |
| 12 | IND | 18.90 | 11 |
| 13 | NYG | 21.07 | 8 |
| 14 | BUF | 17.82 | 17 |
| 15 | CIN | 16.68 | 21 |
| 16 | BAL | 15.57 | 27 |
| 17 | CLE | 18.45 | 13 |
Injuries are still a thing
A common belief for drafting Bell relies on the theory he'll be well rested upon his return and will be ready for a full workload for his remaining 12 games. This was also the belief in 2015, when Bell lasted just six games upon his return. Bell has had just a single 16-game season in his three-year career.
Of 2015's top 10 fantasy running backs in standard-scoring leagues, just six played a full season. With Bell already a lock to miss four games (and five fantasy weeks) owners would need him to be active for the remaining 12 games (but most likely only 11 fantasy weeks). This seems as unlikely for Bell as any other running back.
The DeAngelo Dilemma
Drafting Steelers RB DeAngelo Williams presents many issues for fantasy owners, with most of the ideal situations and most popular drafting strategies directly contradicting each other. Williams' ADP has been on a rapid rise over the past 14 days, according to Fantasy Football Calculator.
An original ADP of 8.10 sits at 5.10 as of Wednesday, just 12 days since the news of Bell's suspension first broke. Originally a top handcuff for Bell, Williams is now being drafted as a starter, a position he's guaranteed to hold for only four weeks.
Here are the main issues with drafting either, or both, Steelers running backs:
- Williams is no longer a handcuff: In an ideal world for fantasy owners, Bell will play all 12 remaining games upon his return and demote Williams to his typical backup role. This is a nightmare for anyone spending the required fifth-round pick on Williams.
- Paying for two RB1s and getting only one: Taking both Bell and Williams requires the use of two of the first five picks in drafts, on two players who will combine for the production just one elite running back. Owners will be foregoing a second, legitimate RB1 and/or an elite receiver.
- Timeshare when both are healthy: With Williams having proven his abilities last season he will remain a part of the Steelers' offense once Bell returns. Any type of timeshare limits the return on value of both players; especially at RB1 price tags.
- Steelers offense is more pass-happy with Williams: Even though Williams excelled in place of Bell in 2015, QB Ben Roethlisberger relied on much more in those games. He racked up at least 39 pass attempts in four of six games with Williams as the lead RB, while doing so just once in his other five starts last season.
Just stay away
The respective abilities of both Bell and Williams caps each other's upside. Anything more than the five missed fantasy weeks Bell's already facing will be a huge detriment to the chances of fantasy owners, while a full 12 (remaining) games will render Williams nearly irrelevant.