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Where to draft Le'Veon Bell - and why I'm still taking him in Round 1

Jason Bridge / USA TODAY Sports

Before receiving a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's drug-testing policy, Le'Veon Bell was a legitimate candidate for top spot in fantasy drafts, along with WRs Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. More often than not he was taken ahead of fellow RBs Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson.

Bell finished as the second-highest scoring non-QB in 2014, behind DeMarco Murray. In 2015, he shone when healthy, but missed 10 games; two due to suspension and eight after he tore his MCL on Nov. 1 against the Bengals.

In spite of the impending four-game suspension, I'm still taking Bell at the end of the first round in drafts. Here's why:

His suspension might be reduced or terminated

It's important to remember that Bell never actually tested positive for a banned substance, he just failed to actually take part in the drug test. Obviously that is completely suspicious and irresponsible, but if anything, it increases the likelihood of the suspension being reduced or even possibly overturned, though the latter is very unlikely.

That said, the odds are against him. It doesn't help that he is now a repeat offender. Nonetheless, it is still worth taking Bell at the end of the first round assuming the suspension holds up. If it does get reduced, you will be laughing. Again, it's unlikely this happens, but did anyone see Tom Brady winning his appeal last season for Deflategate?

He'll help you punch your ticket to the playoffs

If you're truly confident in your ability to assemble a strong fantasy football team, you shouldn't need Bell through the first four weeks in order to make the playoffs. As long as you can put together a team that can survive the first four weeks of the season with a 2-2 record, Bell is the type of player that can carry your team the rest of the way.

Fantasy football isn't about winning the No. 1 seed in the regular season, it's about having the best possible team in the fantasy playoffs - while still being able to make the postseason. Just get your ticket to the dance. More often than not, the team with best roster for those crucial three weeks will be the one to take home the championship.

Handcuffing DeAngelo Williams is easy

This is a pretty obvious piece of advice, but one that needs to be stated. Despite his age, Williams was still very productive in the running game and in the receiving game last season. Don't hesitate to take him in the middle rounds - even before taking a quarterback if necessary. Even once Bell returns, keep Williams on your bench the rest of the season.

There aren't many comparable options

In many leagues, RBs such as David Johnson, Lamar Miller and Jamaal Charles are being taken ahead of Bell. All three players have question marks about their game.

Johnson's talent is undeniable, but he only has five career regular season starts under his belt, and backup Chris Johnson did nothing to lose his job a season ago except get hurt.

Miller also is an exceptional talent, but has never received a full, RB1-caliber workload. The most touches he has received in a season was 254 back in 2014. Everyone seems to assume he wills surpass that number in Houston, but there is still plenty of uncertainty involved for a potential first-round pick. The offense as a whole in Houston has a lot of question marks, starting at QB.

Charles on the other hand, will turn 30 in December. He is coming off his second torn ACL in his left knee. He has also dealt with multiple high ankle sprains to his left ankle. For a player who relies so much on his speed (he was a former track star) do you really want to invest a a high draft pick in an ageing back with a long history of knee and ankle injuries?

Here is a list of players I would take before Bell:

Position Name Team
WR Antonio Brown PIT
WR Julio Jones ATL
WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG
RB Ezekiel Elliot DAL
RB Todd Gurley LA
RB Adrian Peterson MIN
WR A.J. Green CIN
TE Rob Gronkowski NE
WR Dez Bryant DAL

Obviously not everyone's draft board will look the same, but if these nine players are gone within the first nine picks (which is very unlikely) I wouldn't hesitate to take Bell 10th overall in 10- and 12-team leagues.

Other notable emissions from my top 10 board include DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson. Both should have fine seasons, but will have a tough time matching their 2015 numbers in my opinion.

Talent and versatility outweigh risk

Bell has a rare combination of power and grace in his running game. He is 6-foot-2, 230 pounds, but might run with more patience and vision than any running back in all of football. At times it almost seems like he is running on the spot waiting for a hole to open up, and once it does, he is explosive enough to pick up a big gain and isn't afraid to run through a defender.

What makes Bell so great from a fantasy perspective is that regardless of game flow, he will be used heavily in the offense. Obviously Pittsburgh will use him to a run out the clock when they have a lead, but when the team is down in a game he will be a very important piece to their passing game. He finished second on the team with 105 targets, 83 catches and 854 yards in 2014.

The same can't be said for many of the other running backs. Adrian Peterson often get's phased out of the offense when the team is trailing, as his receiving skills aren't up to par with his running ability. Todd Gurley also made very little impact in the receiving game last season. Bell's ability to dominate both aspects give him a very high floor week in and week out.

This type of expected production from Week 5 and onward outweighs any risk in my opinion. Here is the Steelers schedule from Weeks 5-16 (FPA = fantasy points allowed per game against running backs from 2015):

Week Opponent FPA
5 vs. Jets 13.35 (31)
6 at Dolphins 24.02 (1)
7 vs. Patriots 15.41 (27)
8 BYE
9 at Ravens 15.57 (25)
10 vs. Cowboys 21.44 (7)
11 at Browns 18.39 (13)
12 at Indianapolis 18.9 (10)
13 vs. Giants 21.07 (8)
14 at Bills 17.82 (17)
15 at Bengals 16.68 (20)
16 vs. Ravens 15.57 (25)

While he doesn't necessarily have the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for a running back, there is clearly a stretch of soft matchups in the regular season. Even against tough defenses, Bell can still produce. He averaged 93 rushing yards per game last season in his six games, and five of those games came at Rams, vs. Ravens, vs. Cardinals, at Chiefs, vs. Bengals.

Overall, if you're confident enough in your ability to win the draft after you pick Bell, you should reap the benefits. Do your research, make a draft board and come prepared. It's rare that someone picked in the first or second round can be considered a "steal", but Bell can be just that.

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