Shutdown quarterbacks: receivers who are hindered by conservative offenses
Drafter beware: while the passing game is in vogue around the NFL, some talented receivers have their upsides capped by the offenses they play in or the risk-averse QB throwing them the ball. Here are some players you should be wary of expecting great things from in 2016:
TE Travis Kelce, Chiefs
The 6-foot-5 Kelce is often compared to Rob Gronkowski because of their similar sizes, skill sets and fun-loving personalities. Gronk, however, plays for one of the NFL's most pass-happy offenses, while the Chiefs have ranked 29th and 30th, respectively, in total passing yards over Kelce's first two full campaigns.
Not including a 2013 that was wiped out after one game due to a knee injury, Kelce's production over both of his full seasons has been remarkably similar:
| Games | Rec | Tgts | Yds | TDs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 16 | 67 | 87 | 862 | 5 |
| 2015 | 16 | 72 | 100 | 875 | 5 |
Other than seeing nearly one additional target per game in 2015, Kelce's across-the-board production was nearly identical to the year before. Kansas City QB Alex Smith's 20 touchdown passes in 2015 were the second-most he had ever thrown in a season, and his 3,486 passing yards were a career best.
Considering 12 QBs topped 4,000 yards and another 11 threw for 31 or more scores in 2015, Smith's strides still leave much to be desired fantasy-wise.
Kelce's output has been perfectly adequate, but it goes without saying that he could explode if he played for, say, the Saints, rather than a team content to lean on its defense and running game. It may seem natural to portend a breakout from a 26-year-old entering his third full season, but judging from 2014 and 2015, more of the same can be expected.
WR Laquon Treadwell, Vikings
Treadwell, Minnesota's first-round pick in 2016, is a 6-foot-2 receiver out of Ole Miss. Not known for having great speed, he averaged 14.1 yards per catch in his final year in college, and should provide a solid possession option for QB Teddy Bridgewater.
While Treadwell may be a welcome real-life addition to the Minnesota offense, whether he'll have major fantasy relevance is another matter. Bridgewater has averaged 212 passing yards per game over 29 career contests, and only threw 14 touchdown passes in 16 games in 2015. He's accurate, but doesn't look to take chances downfield.
Mike Wallace was brought in to provide a deep threat last season, but averaged a career-low 12.1 yards on his 39 receptions. Fifth-round pick Stefon Diggs was unexpectedly Bridgewater's favorite target, compiling a 52-720-4 receiving line in 13 games.
Aside from Diggs' first four games, in which he recorded at least six receptions and 87 yards in each, he wasn't a consistent fantasy asset. Over his final nine games, he scored just twice and failed to top 66 yards in any contest.
The trio of Diggs, Treadwell and TE Kyle Rudolph (49-495-5 receiving line in 2015) may end up cannibalizing each other's production. While the majority of offenses have room for three fantasy-relevant pass-catchers, the defense-and-running-game-oriented Vikings aren't most teams.
New Charger Travis Benjamin has an average draft position of just below Treadwell's, and he recorded nearly 1,000 receiving yards in Cleveland last season. Now in a pass-heavy offense, he's a solid bet to surpass Treadwell's production at a later draft spot.
WR Jordan Matthews, Eagles
There's a lot to like about Matthews' first two years as a pro. He scored a respectable eight touchdowns in each season, and increased his catches (85 from 67), targets (127 from 105) and yards (997 from 872) from 2014 to 2015, all while never missing a game.
Through no real fault of his own, he may struggle to improve on last year's success. Chip Kelly is no longer the head coach in Philadelphia, and his favored fast-paced approach saw the Eagles have the fifth-most and sixth-most pass attempts, respectively, in 2014 and 2015.
New coach Doug Pederson served as the Chiefs' offensive coordinator from 2013 through 2015, overseeing a unit that, as mentioned in Kelce's section, doesn't look to throw the ball with regularity. That's not to say that Pederson will immediately look to play as conservatively as the Chiefs did, but it may mean that Matthews is in tough to record his first 1,000-yard campaign.
The quarterback situation in Philadelphia looks to be in flux, and it seems a distinct possibility that three different signal-callers will have started games by season's end.
Injury-prone Sam Bradford will play early on, but well-compensated backup Chase Daniel, who spent the last three seasons in Kansas City with Pederson, could well get a shot. And then there's second overall pick Carson Wentz, who may draw into the lineup once the Eagles begin looking toward 2017.
All that uncertainty under center can't be good for Matthews' production. TE Zach Ertz, who recorded a 75-853-2 receiving line last season and has an ADP of well after Matthews', could offer a less risky route into the offense.