Fantasy Fallout: Drew Pomeranz looks set to emerge victorius at Fenway Park
Here are the fantasy implications of the Boston Red Sox reportedly agreeing to acquire LHP Drew Pomeranz from the San Diego Padres in exchange for pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza:
Season-long fantasy leagues
Pomeranz, the holder of a 2.47 ERA and a 10.15 K/9 rate, was essentially found money for both the Padres and fantasy owners in 2016. In his first season with 38-51 San Diego, the 27-year-old lefty has a 8-7 record and is fresh off making his first career All-Star appearance at his (former) home ballpark.
While the move from spacious Petco Park in San Diego to hitter-friendly Fenway Park in Boston should ultimately cause some regression in his career-best peripheral stats, the increased win probability that comes in playing for the 49-38 Red Sox, baseball's highest-scoring offense, should be a net positive for Pomeranz's fantasy value.
Even if his ERA creeps toward his career mark of 3.66, Pomeranz's propensity to strike out batters and induce a respectable amount of ground balls should allow him to limit the damage at Fenway. For his MLB career, Pomeranz has allowed nearly one home run per nine innings; his mark of 0.71 this season with San Diego should rise in Boston.
It's worth noting that Pomeranz is set to blow past his previous professional high of 147 1/3 innings pitched, set in 2012. He's already thrown 102 innings in 17 starts as a Padre, so it remains to be seen if the Red Sox will attempt to limit his workload somewhat as the season heads into the stretch run.
For AL-only leagues, Pomeranz will nevertheless be a hotly-contested waiver claim. Owners in formats that use free agent acquisition budgets (FAAB) should feel confident in allotting nearly half of their remaining funds, especially if in urgent need of pitching help.
For mixed league owners, Pomeranz can be looked at as an inexpensive facsimile of fellow Red Sox left-hander David Price. Despite allowing over a home run per nine innings and struggling to his worst ERA (4.34) and FIP (3.42) since 2009, Price still has nine wins and is striking out over 10 batters per nine innings.
The prospect acquired by the Padres, 18-year-old RHP Espinoza, likely won't sniff the major leagues this season. He's made 17 starts for Boston's Single-A affiliate, managing a 4.38 ERA and a 3.09 FIP.