Fantasy Fallout: Mets' Reyes a must-add in deep leagues and NL-only formats
Here are the fantasy repercussions following the news that the New York Mets will sign SS Jose Reyes:
Season-Long Leagues
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and for a Mets lineup that came within three wins of a World Series title, having the second-worst team batting average, seventh-worst team OBP and fifth-highest team strikeout rate in the majors this season just wasn't going to cut it.
So the Mets now turn back to a familiar face, one that became a consensus first-round fantasy draft pick during his heyday with the team. Reyes played 1,050 games with the Kings of Queens from his debut in 2003 to 2011, making four All-Star games, leading the league in steals and triples a handful of times and capturing a batting title to boot.
While his Mets' tenure ended five seasons ago, it may as well be 50 seasons in fantasy baseball years. Players who rely heavily on their legs don't tend to age well and injuries have been a major factor in Reyes' performance for years; he has played more than 140 games just twice since the start of the 2009 season.
The Mets already have a credible, if uninspiring, option at shortstop in Asdrubal Cabrera, who is hitting a respectable .264 with a .737 OPS this season. With Cabrera on the books for 10.25 million dollars in 2017 (including a 2018 buyout), there's little chance Reyes will assume everyday SS-duties, barring injury.
David Wright's long-term injury has to be the main reason the Mets decided to take a chance on the former batting champ. Reyes has never played third base in the majors, but that position might best suit his skill-set at this point in his career. His range was nowhere to be found last year in Toronto and Colorado, but he still has a cannon for an arm.
Wilmer Flores has been seeing regular at-bats at the hot corner in Wright's absence. He has hit a respectable .269/.342/.433 since taking over everyday, but has just two-hits in his last 17 at-bats.
Expect Terry Collins to give Reyes a chance to take over the three-bag on an everyday basis. The Mets lack a true leadoff hitter, as Curtis Granderson has scuffled atop the order. There's a good chance Reyes, who has hit almost exclusively leadoff in his career, could fulfill that role. If that is the case, he has some fantasy value.
In standard 10-team leagues better options across the infield can be found. He's only worth an add in 12-team leagues if you're desperate for a shortstop who can swipe the occasional bag. In deep leagues and NL-only formats, pick up Reyes right away if you have an N/A or spot, or wait until he's almost finished his rehab assignment.
Daily Fantasy
Reyes' batting splits versus pitcher-handedness are nearly identical; he boasts a career .294 BA against lefties and a .288 BA vs. righties. At this point, expect his average to fall between .260 and .275; he'll no longer enjoy the park factors that Coors Field in Colorado and Rogers Centre in Toronto boast.
His career batted ball numbers -- 20.6 percent line drives, 44.1 ground balls and 35.3 fly balls -- are nearly identical to the league's 20.6 LD, 45.2 GB and 34.2 FB rates, so there's little advantage in targeting those attributes in specific opposing pitchers in DFS. Reyes' batted-ball data is as neutral as it comes.
If there's any advantage to be found, it's in targeting catchers and teams that have trouble throwing out baserunners. Within the NL East, games against Atlanta will be of interest; the Braves have thrown out just nine of 52 runners, a 14.75 percent success rate. In particular, when Tyler Flowers dons the tools of ignorance, the Braves have caught just two of 30 base-stealers.
Of course, all of this depends on whether Reyes is inserted into the starting lineup at all. It's hard to tell what his initial DFS pricing will look like but he's sure to be a very public player because of his notoriety. Leave him out of cash game lineups until his price adjusts to reflect role and ability. Under the right circumstances, he can be deployed in tournament lineups.