Going Down with the Ship; Is it Time to Set Francisco Liriano Adrift?

For the past three seasons, Pirates LHP Francisco Liriano was one of the best kept secrets in baseball: a crafty veteran that struck out a batter per inning, used the home field advantage of PNC Park to limit homers, could rely on the solid defense, and enjoyed good run support throughout.

Liriano was the prototypical mid- to late-round draft pick that punched well-above his weight class, blossoming into a quality SP3 option and helping numerous early adopters create strong fantasy rotations. Compared to his earlier seasons in Minnesota, Liriano resurrected himself from near obscurity.

Now, Liriano is on the verge of a real-life meltdown. His numbers have fallen off across the board, and for owners that are still holding onto him, it might be time to talk about some hard truths. Here are a few points to consider:

• He's getting less vertical movement on his sinker. Per Brooks Baseball, Liriano's sinker -- a pitch he has thrown 51 percent of the time in 2016 -- has seen a decrease in vertical movement for the fourth straight season.

• He's also getting more horizontal movement on his sinker, which is allowing the ball to drift in towards Liriano's glove side and right into the sweet spot for right-handed batters.

• The sinker is betraying the rest of his offerings. By not locating his sinker, Liriano's slider has been rendered ineffective. Liriano became adept at inducing weak contact by handcuffing batters who thought he was setting up for a sinker down and away only to find the ball arriving on the inside of the strikezone.

• Opposing batters are getting smarter. Liriano made his mark by inducing weak contact and striking batters out by getting them to chase pitches outside the zone. His O-swing percentage dropped from 33.3 last season to 27.2 this year. Batters have learned to stay patient and to wait for something they can hit, which is made easier by less movement.

• He's more susceptible to being hit hard. By keeping opposing batters guessing at where the pitch was going, Liriano avoided hard contact. With more of his offerings arriving in the zone, his hard contact rate jumped from 24.3 percent in 2015 to 36.2 percent this season. At 1.72, Liriano's home run per nine innings rate is the eighth-highest in the majors.

• His starts are short -- and getting shorter. Liriano has walked 13.7 percent of batters he's faced, the highest rate in the majors (which isn't great when you're getting taken deep so often). By issuing more free passes, he's running his pitch count up faster. He averaged close to six innings per start in 2015 but that's dropped to five and 2/3 innings in 2016.

• He doesn't provide a high volume of innings. Liriano has eclipsed 165 innings pitched in a season just twice in his career. The first time came in 2010 when he pitched a career high 191 and 2/3 innings; the second time was last year when he pitched 186 and 2/3 innings. He's not a workhorse by any means and it seems unlikely he surpasses 175 innings in 2016.

• The NL Central is better. The Cubs and Cardinals are the second and third-highest scoring teams in the majors, scoring 5.38 and 5.35 runs per game, respectively. His other division rivals play in extreme hitter's parks. Liriano will often find himself pitching in a caustic environment against elite hitting whenever he faces a team from the NL Central.

• Opportunity cost. Every day you continue to host Liriano on your roster is a missed opportunity to roster a better pitcher. Continuing to hold out hope for a rapidly declining veteran could cost you a rising talent, just like how holding out hope for then-Mets SP Johan Santana in 2012 might've cost you the chance to pick up Liriano in the first place.

There are still reasons to believe that Liriano could turn it around. He's still striking out a batter per inning. The bloated homer rate is due to regress. He pitches his home games in what is widely considered one of the best pitcher's park in baseball and he's supported by a top-10 offense.

And most importantly, he's had rough patches like this (though not quite this bad since joining Pittsburgh) even in his best seasons. Last year, he posted a 4.93 ERA in six starts from April 21 to May 19; he also posted a 4.33 ERA across his final 11 starts of 2015. He still finished that campaign with a 3.38 ERA across 186 and 2/3 innings.

The question becomes: is it worth suffering through the lean and nasty periods of ineptitude with the promise of strong stretches? Teams at the top of the standings should stay clear but Liriano still holds value for owners on the fringes of competition, looking for risky acquisition to propel them into contention.

That strategy has worked before; just ask the real-life Pirates, who ended a 20-year playoff drought the year the year they signed Liriano as a free agent and haven't missed the postseason since.

But Liriano is four years older than he was then and as he approaches his 33rd birthday, he's not going to be the same pitcher he was in his prime -- and the rest of the NL Central isn't going to take it easy on the middle-aged lefty.

Eventually, the captain goes down with his ship. Of course, the captain always has a choice of which ship he rides into battle in the first place. For all but the most desperate fantasy players, it's time to set Liriano adrift.