Fantasy: Who will finish as the No. 1 WR in 2016?
Unlike the running back position, the receiver who finishes with the most fantasy points is almost always one of the first wideouts off the board in drafts.
The consistency of elite receivers is undeniable: We see the same names finish near the top year after year, including Antonio Brown, who captured the No. 1 spot each of the last two campaigns.
Any pass-catcher hoping to stop Brown's fantasy reign will need to be the alpha in his team's receiving corps, capable of eclipsing 1,500 yards and double-digit touchdowns. That means a few quality fantasy receivers like Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks don't make this list, since their upside is limited based on the roles they play.
As always, we'll provide the reminder that this table isn't a ranking of where players will finish in 2016. The odds here represent the likelihood that a player can end the year as the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver.
- Quarterbacks
- Running Backs
- Wide Receivers
- Tight Ends
Wide Receivers
Player | Odds of finishing 1st |
---|---|
Antonio Brown | 5-2 |
Julio Jones | 4-1 |
Odell Beckham Jr. | 9-2 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 8-1 |
A.J. Green | 10-1 |
Dez Bryant | 16-1 |
Jordy Nelson | 16-1 |
Brandon Marshall | 20-1 |
Allen Robinson | 24-1 |
Alshon Jeffery | 24-1 |
Mike Evans | 30-1 |
Demaryius Thomas | 40-1 |
Keenan Allen | 40-1 |
Amari Cooper | 45-1 |
Sammy Watkins | 50-1 |
Michael Floyd | 50-1 |
Kelvin Benjamin | 75-1 |
T.Y. Hilton | 75-1 |
Jeremy Maclin | 85-1 |
Doug Baldwin | 85-1 |
Golden Tate | 90-1 |
DeVante Parker | 100-1 |
Eric Decker | 100-1 |
Antonio Brown
Brown is the king of the fantasy receiver realm. His odds of finishing first are the best of any player at any position. With Martavis Bryant suspended for the year, Brown could see 200 targets this season.
Julio Jones
Jones actually had more yards than Brown last season, but came up with two fewer touchdowns, costing him the crown. He's more than capable of another historic year, if he can stay healthy.
Odell Beckham Jr.
Through two NFL seasons, the 23-year-old is averaging just under 94 receptions, 1,378 yards, and 13 touchdowns per season.
DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins has proven himself as one of the best receivers in the game - and he did it last year catching passes from Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett. The arrival of Brock Osweiler could bring his game to another level.
A.J. Green
The Bengals lost Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu in free agency and ankle surgery might sideline star tight end Tyler Eifert early in the year. Green is guaranteed to see more targets than ever before.
Dez Bryant
Bryant will be hungry coming off an injury-plagued season. With Tony Romo back under center, Bryant will retake a spot in the top five, and could challenge for No. 1 as long as rookie Ezekiel Elliott isn't stealing all the touchdowns.
Jordy Nelson
Nelson is another elite receiver returning from injury. If anyone didn't appreciate his ability before, they certainly do now after the Packers' offense struggled in his absence.
Brandon Marshall
Assuming Ryan Fitzpatrick eventually re-signs with the Jets, Marshall should pick up where he left off last season. However, if there's no Fitzmagic in New York, Marshall's chances will fall off considerably.
Allen Robinson
Robinson was a breakout star in 2015 and has staying power. The biggest threat to A-Rob's fantasy numbers will be the overall improvement of the Jaguars as a team. There may not be as much garbage time in Jacksonville this season.
Alshon Jeffery
Injuries have prevented the public from appreciating Jeffery as an elite talent. If he stays on the field in 2016, that won't be the case much longer.
Mike Evans
Evans is one of the most intriguing receivers on this list. Few players possess his natural abilities, yet drops and minor ailments have capped his upside. A monster season is lurking.
Demaryius Thomas
Thomas overcame subpar quarterback play last season, but the Broncos increased the degree of difficulty once again with Mark Sanchez, Trevor Simian, and rookie Paxton Lynch competing to start.
Keenan Allen
The always underrated Allen was on pace for 134 receptions, 1,450 yards, and eight touchdowns prior to having his season cut short at the midway mark due to a lacerated kidney.
Amari Cooper
Few rookies enter the league as polished as Cooper was last season. Now the question becomes: How high is his ceiling?
Sammy Watkins
Watkins posted the third-most fantasy points among receivers over the last seven games of 2015. Unfortunately, a foot injury could derail his ascendance.
Michael Floyd
Floyd might be the best long-shot bet on this list. After recovering from a gruesome finger injury early in the year, Floyd surpassed 100 yards in five of his last eight games in the regular season.
Kelvin Benjamin
After a strong rookie campaign, a torn ACL sidelined Benjamin for his entire sophomore season. While he's expected to be back for camp, the Panthers' offense may not be as dependent on him as it was two years ago.
T.Y. Hilton
Hilton has gone over the 1,000-yard mark in each of the last three seasons, including last year when he was largely without Andrew Luck. Luck is back, and some beat writers are predicting a career year for Hilton.
Jeremy Maclin
Maclin may not be the most exciting fantasy receiver, but he's the clear leader among Kansas City's pass-catchers. If Justin Houston misses time after ACL surgery, the Chiefs' defense could struggle, forcing the offense to throw more.
Doug Baldwin
Baldwin played out of his mind in the second half of 2015, scoring 12 touchdowns. Russell Wilson continues to improve as a passer, but it's possible Baldwin has turned a corner as well.
Golden Tate
Tate excelled when Calvin Johnson was out of the lineup. Now Megatron is retired and Tate will have a chance to prove himself as a No. 1 wideout.
DeVante Parker
Parker came on strong down the stretch during his rookie season, with 80 yards or more in four of his last six games. Jarvis Landry may still see a significant amount of targets, but Parker has more upside as a WR1.
Eric Decker
Decker definitely has a nose for the end zone, but any chance he has of finishing No. 1 overall would involve Brandon Marshall going down with an injury.