Fantasy: Who will finish as the No. 1 RB in 2016?
Over the last seven years, the first running back selected in fantasy drafts (based on ADP) hasn't once finished with the most points. It's a stat that shouldn't be surprising, given that running back is a volatile fantasy position, annually decimated by injuries.
Since 2009, only two backs selected in the first round of fantasy drafts have gone on to finish first overall, according to average draft position data from Fantasy Football Calculator. More often than not, a player from the second or third round emerges to snatch the crown. It's also possible for a long-shot pick from late in the draft to capture the hearts of the fantasy community and take the top spot, like Devonta Freeman (ninth round) did a year ago.
Let's see if we can get a more solid grasp on the players who have the best chance of being this year's No. 1 fantasy running back.
It's important to remember, the following table isn't a ranking of where players will finish in 2016. It's a look at the running backs who, if everything lines up right, could end the season with the most points at their position.
- Quarterbacks
- Running Backs
- Wide Receivers
- Tight Ends
Running Backs
| Player | Odds of finishing 1st |
|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 13-2 |
| Todd Gurley | 8-1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9-1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 14-2 |
| Devonta Freeman | 10-1 |
| David Johnson | 16-1 |
| Lamar Miller | 19-1 |
| Doug Martin | 24-1 |
| Mark Ingram | 30-1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 40-1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 40-1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 45-1 |
| Thomas Rawls | 50-1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 60-1 |
| Latavius Murray | 70-1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 75-1 |
| Matt Jones | 75-1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 80-1 |
| Jeremy Hill | 80-1 |
| Matt Forte | 90-1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 100-1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 100-1 |
Le'Veon Bell
The list of running backs with a chance to finish first is a much deeper group than the other positions, but Bell will remain the favorite if he's able to fully recover from surgeries on his MCL and PCL.
Todd Gurley
Unless his rookie quarterback learns the pro game at a "Matrix"-like speed, Gurley will be forced to power the entire Rams offense. He's the apex workhorse in the NFL today.
Ezekiel Elliott
This isn't just a bet on Elliott, since a rookie finishing No. 1 overall is a bit of a leap of faith. This is a bet the Cowboys offensive line and the young talented rusher behind them.
Adrian Peterson
At some point, the 31-year-old Peterson will decline, but this isn't the time to bet against him, following a season with over 1,700 combined yards and 11 touchdowns.
Devonta Freeman
Last year's breakout star might have a hard time repeating if the Falcons decide to give Tevin Coleman more run in the offense.
David Johnson
Will the Cardinals fully commit to Johnson by giving him 20-plus touches per game? He'll be an absolute fantasy stud if they do.
Lamar Miller
New team. New offense. New opportunity. The Texans like running the ball and Miller has been waiting to prove he can carry the load.
Doug Martin
Martin reminded everyone of his talent with a monster season during a contract year in 2015. Hopefully all the dollars filling his pockets don't slow him down moving forward.
Mark Ingram
Ingram was the fourth ranked fantasy back when a shoulder ended his season after 12 games. He proved he's a capable receiver during that time, hauling in 50 receptions.
Jamaal Charles
Charles appears on track to return from an ACL tear, but the Chiefs backfield might have a slightly different look in 2016. Expect Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware to vulture touches.
LeSean McCoy
McCoy may already be dealing with injuries and the season isn't even here yet. Buffalo will lean on him, but he might not be able to carry the running game for a full season.
C.J. Anderson
Two seasons is enough for us to label Anderson as a notorious slow-starter. Someone just needs to sing Christmas carols to him in September in order to coax that late-season surge out of him a little earlier.
Thomas Rawls
His ankle injury has created doubt after an outstanding rookie campaign, but Pete Carroll said he expects Rawls to be ready for the start of the season. Coaches never mislead us, right?
Eddie Lacy
Lacy is trying to revive his career by working out with P90X creator Tony Horton. The Packers don't seem convinced yet.
Latavius Murray
The physical tools are there. The upgraded offensive line is there. Now Murray just has to actually deliver.
Jay Ajayi
Ajayi will have an outside shot at an RB1 season, if he establishes himself as Adam Gase's feature back and the team avoids signing Arian Foster.
Matt Jones
Whatever you do, don't fumble. Please, just hold onto that ball. Your breakout season depends on it.
Carlos Hyde
Chip Kelly's high-octane offense should give Hyde plenty of touches. He's flashed his abilities before, but hasn't stayed healthy long enough to make good on them.
Jeremy Hill
The Bengals receiving corps took a hit in free agency and may be without Tyler Eifert at the start of the year. The offense may call on Hill and the running game to propel them.
Matt Forte
Forte could set out on a revenge campaign to prove the Bears made a mistake letting him go. Hopefully the 30-year-old still has enough left in the tank to complete that mission.
DeAngelo Williams
Williams proved he can still be a fantasy star when called upon. If Bell has a setback or goes down again early in the year, the top overall spot isn't out of the question for Williams.
Tevin Coleman
The sophomore is unlikely to wrestle the job away from Freeman this season, but an injury could open the door for him to shine in Kyle Shanahan's offense.