Hold the Door! 3 Starters Being Let Down by Their Bullpens
I talked Thursday about how the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen has exasperated the struggles of RHP Marcus Stroman this season, and how his ERA would be much better if he was receiving league-average help from his relievers.
While the overall change for the season wouldn't be a dramatic improvement for Stroman with improved bullpen play, it would make a difference in several weekly fantasy matchups.
Baseball Reference tracks runs inherited by bullpens and the amount of those inherited runners who eventually come around to score. The Blue Jays rank 27th in the category (as of Friday) with the Miami Marlins ranking last in baseball. The Detroit Tigers are 29th and the San Diego Padres fell to 28th with their Thursday implosion against the Seattle Mariners.
Here's a look at three starters suffering from the same letdowns as Stroman and who have disappointed fantasy owners on several occasions this year:
IR = Inherited Runners
IS = Inherited Score
PIS% = Personal percentage of inherited score
TIS% = Team percentage of inherited score
EIS = Estimated Inherited Score
League average IS% = 31 percent
Justin Verlander
| IR | IS | PIS% | TIS% | EIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | 85.7 | 42.0 | 3 |
ERA: 4.11
QS: 8
Times lifted mid-inning: 4
With league-average relief Verlander would have been charged with four fewer runs, dropping his ERA to 3.62. The half-run improvement is notable even in rotisserie scoring, and certainly enough to make a difference in head-to-head leagues during his two-start weeks.
Patrick Corbin
| IR | IS | PIS% | TIS% | EIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | 66.7 | 37.0 | 3 |
ERA: 4.96
QS: 5
Times lifted mid-inning: 7
Corbin's adjusted ERA drops by nearly a half-run as well. While still not enough to make him a rosterable starter in mixed leagues, it would improve his value in NL-only formats. Corbin's top value comes a streaming option, and improved play from his relievers could make those starts look better.
Wei-Yin Chen
| IR | IS | PIS% | TIS% | EIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | 85.7 | 45.0 | 3 |
ERA: 4.25
QS: 7
Times lifted mid-inning: 5
Chen's adjusted ERA of 3.73 with league-average relief would make him much more palatable for fantasy owners in his all formats. He has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his 11 starts this season, and has failed to pitch into the sixth inning just once.
No starter from the Padres was used in this example for obvious reasons:
Interesting, damning comments from #Padres executive chairman Ron Fowler to @mighty1090. Story:... https://t.co/lJhdjFaray
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 1, 2016
Each of these pitchers has truly struggled at times this season and in nearly every case deserved to be pulled from games at the times he was. Some of these struggles could have been mitigated by the respective bullpens performing even at an average rate for the season.
Projecting these three bullpens to improve toward the league average this season makes these three pitchers prime targets either on the waiver wire or via trade.