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To beat the other, Hornets and Heat must emulate each other

Steve Mitchell / USA TODAY Sports

EAST: IND vs. TOR I DET vs. CLE I BOS vs. ATL
WEST: POR vs. LAC I MEM vs. SA I HOU vs. GS I OKC vs. DAL

In what's perhaps the most evenly matched first-round series on paper, the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat will try to best one another using dramatically different approaches. Different from each other, but also perhaps a departure from what each is accustomed to.

These yin-yanged division rivals present a stylistic disparity, but each is highly qualified to neutralize the other's greatest strength: Long-range prowess for Charlotte, and interior scoring for Miami.

The Hinterland

After more than a decade of wheezy, congested offenses, the Hornets have morphed into a 3-point bombing brigade, attempting more triples than all but three teams and shooting it from deep at the league's eighth-best rate. With that union of abundance and efficiency, only the Warriors got a higher percentage of points from beyond the arc.

Some of that's the result of the evolution of Kemba Walker, and some the addition of the rangy Nic Batum, but the biggest change has come in the frontcourt. Through a combination of the draft, the trade market, and internal development, Charlotte added a glut of big-man shooting and playmaking, with Frank Kaminsky, Spencer Hawes, and a resurgent Marvin Williams.

The Heat, though, have done a really good job at running opponents off the 3-point line. And, much in the way the Hornets' offense marries bounty with efficiency, the Heat defense creates both scarcity and inefficiency.

3PT D profile Opp. 3PA Opp. 3PA freq. Opp. 3P%
Heat (lg. rank) 21.2 (3) 25% (3) 34.7 (T-11)

In four meetings this season, the Hornets averaged nearly four fewer 3-point attempts than they did in all other games.

Crucially, the Heat have mobility and flexibility in the frontcourt. They can play Luol Deng or Justise Winslow as small-ball power forwards - guys who are quick and long enough to help deter drives or hedge on pick-and-rolls, and still recover out to Charlotte's army of frontcourt shooters. That does, however, leave them a bit mushier in the middle.

The Heartland

The Heat are a comparatively old-school outfit, preferring to operate in the in-between spaces. They were one of just four teams to score a higher percentage of points on mid-range jumpers than 3-pointers. They also ranked fourth in the NBA in points in the paint, eighth in two-point percentage, and tops in field-goal percentage in the restricted area.

That's partially reflective of Hassan Whiteside's impact as a pick-and-roll dive man and putback scavenger, but it's also the product of their lead guards' attacking and finishing ability. Led by Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic, the Heat ranked seventh in the league in drives per game, with the third-highest field-goal percentage on such plays.

The Hornets may have the antidote in their interior defense, which has been remarkably strong considering they lack a single viable rim protector. They compensate for it by making crisp rotations, defending diligently without fouling, walling off the paint, cleaning the defensive glass, and getting by on sheer effort in the restricted area.

Interior D Profile Opp. PITP Opp. FG% RA Opp. FG% Paint (Non-RA) Opp. FT/FG DREB%
Hornets (lg. rank) 40 (3) 59.2 (13) 38.4 (7) .249 (4) 79.8 (1)

That proficiency says as much about the Hornets' guards and wings as it does their bigs, and it says even more about the wisdom of their scheme. Walker, Batum, Courtney Lee, and Jeremy Lamb make Charlotte one of the league's best at containing dribble-penetration and diverting drivers away from the middle of the floor. Length and athleticism on the perimeter, coupled with ultra-conservative pick-and-roll coverages, means the Hornets allowed fewer attempts in the restricted area than all but five teams.

As a concession, they allow opponents to shoot a ton of threes. But that won't matter in this series if the range-averse Heat can't (or won't) take advantage of those looks from deep.

In sum ...

This has all been a roundabout way of saying that in order to beat one another, the Heat and Hornets may have to become one another.

Trippy.

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