3 reasons why the Raptors will finally win a 7-game playoff series
EAST: BOS vs. ATL I DET vs. CLE I CHA vs. MIA
WEST: DAL vs. OKC I POR vs. LAC I MEM vs. SA I HOU vs. GS
This year's Toronto Raptors are hell-bent on changing the narrative.
Having shattered the franchise wins record by seven games, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are determined to change perceptions of the team from up north.
But if history is any indicator, the odds are against them. Namely, in 21 years of existence, the Raptors have made the playoffs just eight times, and never won a seven-game playoff series. Their only success came in 2001, when they won a five-game series over the New York Knicks.
So why would this year's matchup with the Indiana Pacers be any different?
The Raptors can defend Paul George
Small forwards have given the Raptors fits over the past two playoff runs. First it was Joe Johnson carving up the defense with a crafty pick-and-roll game. Then it was Paul Pierce playing mind games and raining threes.
The bulky wing types have proven to be the Raptors' kryptonite over the years and as it happens, the Pacers have George, a hyperathletic 6-foot-9 wing that can shoot the lights out. He fits the mold.
Except, George struggled in the season series against the Raptors, averaging just 16 points while shooting 31 percent from the floor.
Some of George's struggles are attributable to bad luck, but it also speaks to a change in personnel. The Raptors got a bonafide rim protector in Bismack Biyombo, while also signing one of the league's best 3-and-D wings in DeMarre Carroll. For once, they have enough muscle to stand up to bigger wing types.
Granted, there's no way to fully stop a superstar from getting his points, and George is liable to catch fire from deep. But with Carroll bodying him up, along with plenty of help at the basket, George will struggle.
The Pacers can't stop fouling
Dwane Casey's offense is predicated on the Raptors' guards driving to the hoop, causing the defense to collapse, and either drawing contact, or kicking it out for open threes. Lowry, DeRozan, and backup guard Cory Joseph combined for more drives per game by themselves than all but 21 NBA teams.
On paper, the Pacers have two of the league's best defenders in George and George Hill to stop the Raptors' guards, but that wasn't the case in the regular season.
Toronto attempted 141 free throws in four meetings against the Pacers, which averages out to 35.3 attempts per game.
Aside from coughing up freebies, the Pacers also had several key players in foul trouble, and couldn't spark their vaunted fast-break attack.
Size advantage favors Toronto
Indiana's weakness is in the frontcourt, where they lack starting-caliber bigs. Ian Mahimni has stepped up his game, Lavoy Allen is a backup, and rookie Myles Turner has potential, but none of that really matches up to the Raptors' bigs.
Hand injuries limited Jonas Valanciunas to just two appearances against the Pacers, but in those two games, he averaged 15.5 points and 9.5 rebounds while shooting 72.2 percent from the field.
As for Biyombo, he set a franchise record against the Pacers in March with 25 rebounds, and has the NBA's second-highest block percentage this season.
Look for the Raptors to dominate the Pacers down low.