Skip to content

Recapping the good bets and bad beats of March Madness' 1st weekend

Icon Sportswire / Getty

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Four days and 48 games later, the blood, sweat, and tears have evaporated. Bettors have awakened from the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament looking to assimilate back into society.

For those who were hoping for sleep, the tournament's best games finished after midnight. Samford-Kansas, Drake-Washington State, Oregon-Creighton, and Texas A&M-Houston all featured intense finishes, and there was a trio of upsets Friday night.

Colorado beat Florida 102-100 as Auburn coughed up a 10-point lead to Yale. The Tigers' loss was even more egregious after San Diego State bullied the Bulldogs. First-round wins by Yale, James Madison, and Duquesne helped the favorites go 15-1 in the Round of 32. Oakland got another double-digit seed, North Carolina State, for a hotly contested matchup. And no one will likely have better words for what happened in Grand Canyon-Alabama than 21st-century philosopher Charles Barkley.

Let's look back at the best bets and worst beats for each region.

Midwest Region

Best bet: Gonzaga ATS

If you like winning bets without any second-half sweat, Gonzaga was for you. The Bulldogs (-6.5) never trailed McNeese, leading by 23 at the half. Then, a big Gonzaga (-3.5) run on Kansas at the start of the second half gave the Bulldogs back-to-back 21-point wins.

Bad beat: Oregon (+6) vs. Creighton

Rarely is a point spread for an NCAA Tournament game as wrong as it was for Oregon-Creighton. Oddsmakers ignored the Ducks' recent play and made them a 6.5-point underdog when the market opened late Friday night. Sharp bettors noticed, pummeling Oregon down to +3.5. That seemed like the right move through 45 minutes Saturday. A back-and-forth game saw the Ducks lead by two with less than 30 seconds to go.

But star big man N'Faly Dante missed the front end of a 1-and-1, allowing Creighton to tie the game. Oregon had a chance to win but Jermaine Couisnard took too long to drive and didn't get a great shot. Bluejays guard Trey Alexander had a good look with the game tied at the end of the first overtime but missed. Creighton then outlasted an exhausted Ducks team in double overtime, covering all numbers. With sportsbooks getting bailed out after bettors piled onto a bad line, this will be a tough beat to top.

South Region

Best bet / Bad beat: NC State (-5.5) vs. Oakland (+5.5)

Oakland-NC State separated good bettors from bad, resulting in either a skillfully played win or a clumsily bet loss.

Bettors who took Wolfpack -5 early - pushing the line to its 6.5-point close - salvaged a 79-73 overtime win. Our South Region preview assigned NC State a rating of 33 and Oakland a rating of 26.5, so a 6.5-point spread should've been the expectation. Those who liked the Grizzlies but believed they could get a better number than the opening won a wager that was a bad beat for bettors who didn't get the best of the number.

East Region

Best bet: Illinois and fading the steam

Morehead State moving from +13.5 down to +11 against Illinois was one of many daily instances where a line steamed in one direction, yet the other side won.

The Illini covered their game comfortably and were one of only two teams to do so in the East.

Bad beat: South Dakota State (+16.5) vs. Iowa State

Heaven help the poor bettors when the walk-ons come in. Several totals swung on late nonsense after the outcome was decided, but South Dakota State's loss was especially sour. With 14 seconds left and a meaningless layup away from a backdoor cover, Bubz Alvarez tried to shake a defender and stumbled into a game-ending turnover and a 17-point loss.

West Region

Best bet: Clemson moneyline

Bettors' Cinderella of the tournament? Clemson. Wait, what?

The Tigers are the only team to win twice as a moneyline 'dog. They were the only underdog to win outright this weekend, and they were in the unusual position of being the underdog 6-seed to No. 11 New Mexico (whoops!).

Bad beat: Nevada (-1.5) vs. Dayton

Thursday's moment of afternoon mayhem cut to Nevada bettors' souls. Down 17 with just over seven minutes to play, Dayton pulled off the biggest comeback of the tournament without even needing overtime.

Sweet 16 early lines

GAME (Side / Total)
WEST REGION
(6) Clemson vs. (2) Arizona (-7 / 152)
(4) Alabama vs. (1) North Carolina (-4 / 173.5)
EAST REGION
(5) San Diego State vs. (1) Connecticut (-11 / 136.0)
(3) Illinois vs. (2) Iowa State (-2 / 146)
SOUTH REGION
(11) NC State vs. (2) Marquette (-6.5 / 150.5)
(4) Duke vs. (1) Houston (-4 / 134)
MIDWEST REGION
(5) Gonzaga vs. (1) Purdue (-5 / 154.5)
(3) Creighton vs. (2) Tennessee (-3 / 143.5)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox