Game 5 Thunder comeback swung series win probability 63.4 percent

Just how unlikely was Oklahoma City's 13-point comeback in the final four minutes of Wednesday night's Game 5 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers?

Well, according to odds from Inpredictable.com relayed by ESPN's Kevin Pelton, the Thunder had anywhere from a 0.5 to 1.1 percent chance to win the game with 4:01 left on the clock, depending on the methodology. Rather, only once in roughly 100 to 200 games would a team make such a comeback. This, after the Clippers had a 16-point comeback in Game 4 that had just a 1.7 percent chance of being completed at one point.

Pelton also crunches the numbers based on historical series outcomes and finds that Oklahoma City's comeback didn't just swing Game 5, it swung the likely series outcome dramatically:

So if we combine that with the in-game win probability, the Clippers had a 71.8 percent chance of winning the series at their highest point in the fourth quarter. That dropped all the way to 8.4 percent with the loss.

That is, the Clippers were nearly a three-in-four bet to win the series when the clock read 4:01 in the fourth quarter on Wednesday, but they now have less than a one-in-10 chance of heading to the Western Conference Finals.

Of course, this is based only on historical comparisons, and the fact that the Clippers have already won in Oklahoma City, and vice versa, means the home-court edge may not be as large as in the sample used. Still, given the enormous swing in likely outcome, it's no surprise the Clippers are furious with the controversial call late in the game.