Where do the Rockets go from here?
The name "Damian Lillard" will probably be anathema in H-Town for decades and centuries to come after he snatched a chance to go home for a potential Game 7 series clincher from the hands of the Rockets. His buzzer-beating three will haunt Houston for as long as there are NBA highlight montages.
Now, instead of talking about what chances they have of upsetting the San Antonio Spurs in the second round, we're talking about what the Rockets can do in the off-season to not find themselves in this position again next year.
The Rockets are certainly no strangers to losing in the first round - 2009 was the only time this century in six tries that they'd gotten to the semis, with a victory over the Blazers - but this year was supposed to be different. With last year's mega-trade acquisition in his second year of leading-man status with Houston and the biggest fish in free agency landed to pair with him as a satellite star, this Rockets squad was supposed to take that next step, creeping past "playoff contender" honors and working towards "title contender" viability.
It was a disappointing end to the season for the Rockets, but it isn't the end of the world for them - they should have a number of chances to achieve the kind of postseason lift-off they're looking for. Here's how they're doing now and how they might eventually get there.
The Good
Well, James Harden and Dwight Howard is a two-man core that any team would gladly start with. Harden still has four years remaining on his Rockets deal, which should cover Houston through the majority of his basketball prime, while Howard has another two years and a player option, taking him likely to the end of his most effective basketball years.
Both players have their failings - Harden needs to work on his defensive discipline, while Howard's offensive game could use an extra spark of creativity, as ever - but both are regular All-NBA finishers that should get the team into the 40s in wins yearly.
Around those two, the team has a decent amount of flexibility. They won't have a ton of cap room this offseason, but they should have the mid-level exception to add a piece, and they have a number of expiring contracts - including the gargantuan final years of those backloaded deals signed by Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin - with which to potentially pull off a megatrade. They also have the final year of Chandler Parsons' contract--assuming they don't lock him up long-term this year--which makes him a fascinating cheap trade piece, especially to a team that might be interested in locking him up long term next summer.
Aside from Parsons, the team also has some cheap, young, improving core pieces in forward Terrence Jones, point guard Patrick Beverley, and possibly even shooting guard Troy Daniels. Jones, who locked down the team's power forward spot partway through last season, has two years left on his rookie deal, while Beverley and Daniels are under a minimum contract as the team's primary backcourt defender and bench bomber, respectively, for one more season before the team has to decide if they're long-term pieces.
The Rockets don't have any extra picks in this or future first rounds of the draft, but they have all their own picks, as well as an upcoming surfeit of extra second-rounders in 2015 and beyond.
The Bad
Outside of Harden and Howard, it's hard to tell who on this team, if anyone, is a true core player going forward. The closest is probably Parsons, who's just 25 and has improved his numbers in each of his three pro seasons, but whose upside might fall short of true star status, potentially handicapping this team's ceiling if he gets paid like a third star. If the Rockets don't lock up Parsons this summer, next year he becomes an unrestricted free agent, meaning the Rockets could ultimately lose him for nothing if he finds bigger money or a better fit elsewhere.
Meanwhile, the Rockets will be shelling out nearly $30 million (in actual cash, if not cap space) next season to two players who likely won't even be starting for them. Jeremy Lin has been something of a tease for Houston since signing two summers ago, giving it flashes of that old Linsanity explosiveness amidst long stretches of offensive inconsistency and defensive indifference - this off-season, he says he wants to remake his game in the mold of super-sub Manu Ginobili, which would probably be a good look for Jeremy with this Houston team. And Omer Asik, made somewhat redundant last summer with the Dwight signing, continues to struggle as a backup or starting power forward, posting a single-digit PER this postseason.
In addition to ongoing roster construction, Houston has another bubbling question in the job security of head coach Kevin McHale. Reports say that McHale's job is safe for the summer, but after a playoff series that too often devolved into thoughtless isolation plays in key moments for Houston, the Celtic Hall-of-Famer's abilities as an Xs-and-Os guy have come into question. The fact that Lillard got a wide-open look at that series-winning three isn't helping his case much either. If the team doesn't show improvement next season, McHale will probably the first name on the chopping block.
So here's what they can do this summer to put them in a position for better results next postseason:
The Draft
The Rockets will be picking 25th in the draft, which doesn't put them in a great position to nab a long-term piece, but the Rockets have certainly had great draft success picking even later than that. You can bet GM Daryl Morey will be doing extensive draft homework in the hopes of getting a cheap future rotation guy. ESPN's latest mock has them getting Duke small forward Rodney Hood, and the Rockets could always use more wing shooting, which would also likely put NC State's sweet-shooting T.J. Wilcox on their radar as well, and perhaps Michigan's upside-heavy Glenn Robinson III as well.
Personally, I might be more interested in seeing Houston take a shot at Tennessee power forward Jarnell Stokes. The Rockets are a team lacking in frontcourt toughness, especially off the bench, and Stokes - who averaged more rebounds than even Julius Randle - certainly has the strength and the grit to be that kind of addition for Morey's bunch. He doesn't quite have the size and athleticism to be a high-ceiling prospect like Randle, but he could be a helpful bench guy a la DeJuan Blair for years to come, and at No. 25, that's not bad value for Houston.
Free Agency
The Rockets won't have a ton of room to add big-ticket free agents this summer, but they could add at least one mid-level piece. For a team that's essentially a player away as constructed, that's no small asset. Luol Deng wouldn't be a bad get for them, as wing defense and versatility will be at a premium for Houston, but he might be a little outside for Houston's budget. Shawn Marion at age 36 (happy birthday today Shawn!!) might be more in its price range, though he says he wants to retire a Maverick and might not be up for doing the Texas Two-Step down to H-Town.
The two best fits might be for guys who have done a tour of duty in Houston already. Trevor Ariza was badly miscast as a go-to scorer for the Rockets when he signed there in 2009, but as a wing-defending, floor-stretching complement to Harden and Howard, he could be as valuable a contributor as he is currently for the still playoff-entrenched Wizards. And while Houston 2010 first-rounder Patrick Patterson was jettisoned in the in-itself abortive Thomas Robinson deal towards the end of last season, as a versatile forward who can shoot a little, he might not be a bad fit for the Rockets now if they can poach him away from Toronto.
Trade
The trade market might end up being where the Rockets do most of their damage this offseason, as they have plenty of options and maneuverability to make some big things happen. The contracts of Parsons, Lin and Asik can all be combined in interesting packages - potentially with Beverley, Jones and even a future first-rounder if need be - to intrigue some teams into potentially giving away some really big names. I liked ESPN's idea of Houston sending Asik to Atlanta in a deal for Paul Millsap, solving positional congestion issues on both sides, though I think Atlanta would also ask for at least one more additional asset - Jones, maybe, or that future first - to facilitate a deal for the first-time All-Star.
It also might not be a bad time to revisit those rumored talks from earlier in the season that talked about the possibility of Lin and Asik being sent to Brooklyn for Deron Williams. The Nets will need Asik's defense and shot-blocking if Kevin Garnett retires (and especially if Brook Lopez remains injury-prone), Lin isn't a bad stopgap PG replacement for Williams, and getting out of Williams' max deal would undoubtedly be appealing to the historically tax-deep Nets. The question is whether Deron is still close enough to being worth a max deal to the Rockets to make him worth buying low on, since his production was in considerable decline this season and he has up to three years left on his big-money deal.
And of course, the Rockets will be one of the 25 or so teams keeping an eye on Kevin Love's situation in Minnesota. The Rockets really couldn't ask for a better frontcourt partner for Dwight Howard than Love, and his rebounding, outside scoring and secondary playmaking would give Houston a Big Three to easily rival any in the league.
The Rockets would certainly need to expend all available assets to have a chance of getting Love - it'd probably take a combination of Jones, Parsons, Lin and/or Asik,and one if not multiple future-first-rounders, and Houston would probably have to take back Corey Brewer or its old friend Kevin Martin in the deal as well (and even then, Houston would likely have to fight off 24 other team packages for the privilege), but Morey would still probably do all that in a heartbeat to add a third superstar to the franchise fold. It might not be Plan A for Houston next season, but it's still planning for it just in case, guaranteed.
The Big Picture:
The Rockets are set up to at least contend for the postseason for the foreseeable future, but as much work as it took to get them to this point after the dissolution of the Yao Ming / T-Mac-era Rock Boys, it's going to take just as much effort and ingenuity (and probably a little luck as well) to get them to the level they want to be at as regular finals contenders. They have the pieces, the assets, and the front-office smarts to potentially get there, but the next couple moves will be critical for Houston, and one false play at this point - a misguided extension, a bum free agent signing, a trade that backfires - could end up capping this team's ceiling and making all Morey and company's work to build a true title team essentially for nought.
And in the shorter-term, the Rockets are going to have to figure out relatively quickly whether they think Kevin McHale is the coach to elevate Houston to that championship level. His offenses this postseason were not necessarily fireable ones, but they were alarming, and as Oklahoma City has been finding out with Scott Brooks the last few postseasons, if you have a coach with a limited playbook and questionable rotation tendencies, it can really limit your potential come playoff time. McHale will have to do some growing on the job to prove himself worthy of coaching the team long-term.
Still, though the Rockets have plenty of questions for the next year and beyond, they are questions that at least two-thirds of the league would love the responsibility of having to answer. We'll see them again in the playoffs in 2015, it's just a matter of if we're writing this column a couple rounds later or not.