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Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: 3 things you need to know

Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports / Reuters

EAST
(1) IND vs. (5) WAS | (2) MIA vs. (6) BKN
WEST
(1) SAS vs. (5) POR | (2) OKC vs. (3) LAC

Both the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs and the fifth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers survived gruelling first-round series to advance to the Western Conference semifinals.

Portland dispatched of the Rockets behind clutch performances from All-Stars LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. Aldridge buoyed the Trail Blazers' offense in Games 1 and 2 in round one, scoring 46 and 43 points respectively to steal home-court advantage. Lillard sent the Rockets packing for good with his clutch buzzer-beating triple in Game 6.

The Spurs needed seven games to topple the pesky Dallas Mavericks. Dallas' defense proved to be surprisingly robust in the early-going, but the Spurs' offense found its footing as the series went on, culminating in a resounding 119-96 victory in Game 7. 

Based on the regular season, San Antonio appears to be the prohibitive favorites, but the series could hinge on the following three factors:

Can anyone stop LaMarcus Aldridge?

Despite boasting the four-time Defensive Player of the Year in Dwight Howard, the Houston Rockets simply had no answer for Aldridge, who averaged a whopping 29.8 points and 11.2 rebounds per game.

Aldrige's dominance from the mid-range is well-documented. Gifted with size, quickness and a deft shooting touch, Aldridge is a matchup nightmare for just about every player in the NBA. 

Due to an injured back, Aldridge only suited up for three of four matchups against the Spurs this season, including one stint where he came off the bench. San Antonio easily captured two victories in his absence, but dropped both contests when Aldridge was fully healthy, and he averaged 25 points and 10 rebounds in those games.

The Spurs will likely throw different looks at Aldridge between their frontcourt rotation of Boris Diaw, Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter. Each player offers a different look. Diaw is strong, and won't concede any ground, but will offer little by way of shot-blocking. Splitter is taller, and an excellent rim-defender, but is a step slower than Aldridge. Finally, Duncan is strong, mobile and smart, but at the age of 38, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich might think twice about playing his franchise forward for long stretches at a time.

Point guards, point gods

For all his tremendous offensive talents, Damian Lillard remains a minus defender in his second season, and will struggle to contain Spurs point guard Tony Parker, who is a maestro in the pick-and-roll. To equalize this matchup, Blazers head coach Terry Stotts will likely shift Wesley Matthews or Nic Batum onto Parker, and opt to hide Lillard's weaknesses elsewhere.

For the Spurs, Popovich may opt for a similar strategy in dealing with Lillard by pressing Danny Green or Kawhi Leonard into duty. Lillard is a deadly three-point shooter, so in theory, a lengthy defender with the ability to fight over screens should in theory deter Lillard's output. Then again, the Rockets employed the same strategy and it failed miserably for them.

During the regular season, Lillard held the upper hand, posting per-game averages of 25 points and 6.3 assists, which bested Parker's 12.7 and 6. The winner of the matchup between the two point guards will likely decide the fate of the respective teams.

Reliable reserves?

During the regular season, the Spurs boasted the highest-scoring bench unit at 44.5 points per game, while Portland's reserves ranked last, netting just 24.0 per contest. The matchup, on paper, looks to favor the Spurs.

But, with a closer look: Portland's bench is indeed weak, which forces Stotts' hand in taxing his starters. Consequently, reduced floor-time stunts the ability for their bench to boost their counting stats.

The Spurs sit on the opposite end of the spectrum, and the bench is pivotal to their success. During the regular season, Popovich often extended his roster 15-deep, which helped serve two functions - spare extra miles on their aging starters, and foster cohesion with the bench. The strategy worked wonders, as the Spurs finished the season with the best record in the NBA while also managing to keep every starter's minutes below 30 per game.

So in order for the Spurs to win, they will need help from the bench. Shooting guard Manu Ginobili is a playoff-hardened competitor, and his output can be relied on, but what about players like Marco Belinelli and Patty Mills, who were both less than impressive against the Mavericks? Bellinelli averaged 3.1 points per game on 37.5 percent shooting, while Mills chipped in with 5.9 points on 35 percent shooting. 

Luckily for the Spurs, the Blazers' bench fared no better in Round 1. Stotts had little faith in his bench, and shortened his rotation to just eight players against the Rockets. Point guard Mo Williams led the way with 8.2 points, but he did so in 25.2 minutes per game, and on an unsightly 37.8 percent shooting. In the event of a Blazers starter landing in foul trouble, they will need Williams and others to step up. 

Schedule

GAME DATE MATCHUP TIME (EST)
1 Tue., May 6 POR at SAS 9:30 p.m. (TNT)
2 Thu., May 8 POR at SAS 9:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
3 Sat., May 10 SAS at POR 10:30 p.m. (ESPN)
4 Mon., May 12 SAS at POR 10:30 p.m. (TNT)
5* Wed., May 14 POR at SAS TBD (TNT)
6* Fri., May 16 SAS at POR TBD (ESPN)
7* Mon., May 19 POR at SAS TBD (TNT)

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