Orioles, Royals overpay just to keep pace

It isn't easy trying to win a playoff spot. It certainly isn't cheap, either.

The Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals learned that the hard way Saturday, when they spent a combined $231 million just to keep their heads above water.

The big contracts handed out to Chris Davis (seven years, $161 million) and Ian Kennedy (five years, $70 million) don't really upgrade either club from last season; rather, they just make them less worse than they were projecting to be.

If Davis has another one of his good years, and Mark Trumbo and Hyun Soo Kim prove helpful, perhaps the Orioles will even improve their already strong offense. What Davis won't do is help a mediocre pitching staff that lost its most valuable starter to free agency.

Kansas City, meanwhile, is looking especially vulnerable heading into 2016 after losing several key members of its championship team. The departures of Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto have left the Royals with a decidedly worse team than a year ago - even if their bullpen and young standouts still make them a sleeper yet again.

Kennedy doesn't come close to replacing Cueto, whose 2015 off-year was still leaps and bounds better than the Petco Park-aided right-hander. FanGraphs recently projected the defending champion Royals to win just 79 games next season, and it's hard to see how Kennedy will do much to change that after serving up a career-high 31 homers last year.

Baltimore's projected win total prior to re-signing Davis was an AL East-worst 78.

These deals probably have more cons than pros, beginning with the decisions to make long-term commitments to both players just as their production is expected to decline. Kennedy was worth just 1.4 WAR the last two years, and prior to signing in a more hitter-friendly environment, Baseball Prospectus projected him to offer replacement-level value during his next five years.

Despite his incredible power, Davis still strikes out more often than anyone in baseball, and his good on-base skills are tempered by his league-worst contact rate. His contract is already drawing comparisons to another slugger who posted remarkably similar numbers during his age 27-29 seasons before his production quickly declined.

(Courtesy: FanGraphs)

For now, Davis remains a legitimate 40-homer threat, and his deferred payments mean that if he does repeat last year's big campaign, he might even be a bargain at the $17 million he'll take up on the Orioles' payroll for the next seven seasons. Never mind that Baltimore will be paying him through 2037, the Orioles probably just added as many as four more wins to their total next season.

As for Kennedy, who will cost the Royals their first-round pick this year, he might even save Kansas City from the late years of the deal if he has a good first two seasons and opts out of the contract. Even if he doesn't, the ridiculous price of WAR could be close to $10 million per win by the fourth and fifth years of his contract. In a best-case scenario, Kennedy could be a two WAR player in his age-31 season, and that might be enough to make the Royals an 80-something win team.

Which makes Saturday's deals all the more necessary, exorbitant cost notwithstanding. The Red Sox added wins this offseason; so too have the Yankees. One could argue that everyone in the AL Central other than the Royals have improved their rosters from a season ago.

In spite of the projections, the payrolls, and pundit opinion, the Orioles and Royals were forced to ante up just to keep pace with the competition. It's a high price to pay, but the alternative probably would have been much more costly.