The 10 most fascinating fantasy baseball stats through April 24
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0: Home runs by Houston Astros 3B Alex Bregman
Bregman is one of just 29 qualified hitters who has yet to hit a home run this season. While some of the 29 names won't surprise most baseball fans, Bregman was expected to hit close to 25 homers in a full season of 500-plus plate appearances, after hitting eight in 217 PAs as a rookie. Unlike the other names on the list, Bregman is still faring well at the plate.
His .258 batting average is the new league norm and not drastically lower than his rookie average. His .372 on-base percentage can be considered elite. He is walking in 11.4 percent of his PAs and striking out in a reasonable 17.7 percent. He is making as much hard contact as last season and pulling the ball just as often. The key difference has been his 28.8 percent fly-ball rate, which is just 67.0 percent of last season's rate.
383: Pitches thrown by Toronto Blue Jays RHP Marcus Stroman
Stroman is the only pitcher in the major leagues to have thrown two complete games so far this season. Only two pitchers have thrown more than his 29 innings, while Texas Rangers RHP Yu Darvish has required five starts to Stroman's four. Still, Stroman ranks 42nd with just 383 pitches thrown on the season and 46 pitchers have thrown more balls.
Stroman has been elite ground-ball pitcher in his career, operating at a career rate of 58.1 percent. He is at 57.8 percent for the season to date, after being above 60 percent in each of the past two seasons. He stands to improve once 3B Josh Donaldson returns from a hamstring injury and bolsters Toronto's infield defense.
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
2: Stolen base attempts by Washington Nationals OF Bryce Harper
While Harper slumped at the plate in 2016 to the tune of a .243/.373/.441 slash line, he surprised fantasy owners by stealing 21 bases, albeit at an inefficient 67.7-percent success rate. The man rumored to land a $400 million contract in 2018 is vastly improved at the plate with a .394/.518/.803 slash line, but he has been caught on both of his stolen base attempts.
Few would have expected Harper to replicate last season's success on the bases but even the most pessimistic drafter would have liked to see 10-12 SBs by season's end. The success of Washington's lineup as a whole is likely to temper his eagerness, while World Series aspirations in Washington could throw up the red light in order to prevent unnecessary injury risk.
32.9: New York Yankees RHP Luis Severino's K-BB%
Severino is striking out 12.15 batters per nine innings and walking just 0.90. Of 16 total baserunners through 20 innings pitched, he has stranded just nine. He is allowing 1.80 home runs per nine innings, up from his career rate of 1.41, with most of these homers plating multiple runs.
Hitters aren't swinging on any more pitches than they had previously in his career, and they're making much less contact outside of the zone. Severino is allowing a nearly negligible amount of more hard contact with similarly few extra fly balls. His 1.72 xFIP is a much truer expectation of what's to come than his 4.05 ERA or 3.10 FIP.
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
1.4: Base running score for Arizona Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt is tied with San Francisco Giants OF Hunter Pence for eighth in the statistic with the trio of anomalies in Mark Trumbo, Joey Gallo and Jose Abreu temporarily ranked above. Goldschmidt, who stole 32 bases in 2016 is already a perfect 4-for-4 this year. His batting average is down 40 points from last season, but his OBP is nearly identical. He is well on his way to another 20-20 season with 30-30 potential.
3.32: HR/9 allowed by Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Kenta Maeda
Maeda is allowing more home runs per nine innings than walks. In fact, he has allowed a total of just 29 baserunners through 19.0 innings, but he has surrendered seven home runs, inflating his ERA to 8.05. The majority of the damage came in a game at Chase Field in Arizona, when he gave up four dingers in just five innings. He has allowed just two homers in two starts at the more spacious Dodger Stadium.
Maeda's 53.4 percent fly-ball rate is cause for concern, though a hard-hit rate of 29.5 percent shouldn't result in as many homers as it has. His strikeout rate remains at a batter per inning. Fantasy owners need to be patient and wait for more starts in pitcher-friendly parks.
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
20.8: San Diego 2B/3B Ryan Schimpf's walk rate
Schimpf is either walking or striking out in a grand total of 51.4 percent of his plate appearances. Of the remaining 48.6 percent of balls being put in play, he is putting 65.7 percent of them in the air. He is, however, making hard contact on just 17.1 percent of those balls. His 31.4 percent soft-contact rate is nearly 50 percent more than last season. He is swinging less than last season, but he is making more contact, particularly outside the strike zone.
Schimpf is the only qualified batter with a BABIP below .100, translating to his .109 batting average. The high walk rate should allow him to see some hittable pitches eventually. He needs to be kept on your radar as a potential source for 30-40 home runs.
5.6: Strikeout rate for San Francisco Giants 3B/SS Eduardo Nunez
Nunez, who hit 16 home runs and stole 40 bases last season while playing for the Minnesota Twins and San Francisco Giants, has converted all six of his SB tries this season, but he hasn't hit a homer. His walk rate is down slightly from his 5.2 percent career rate, but he is striking out in just 5.6 percent of his PAs.
Couple Nunez's quality plate appearances with a 89.8 percent contact rate and a 68.5 percent swing rate on pitches in the zone. He'll make up for a lackluster OBP in the sheer volume of times he'll make contact.
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
99.0: Percent of runners left on base by Houston Astros LHP Dallas Keuchel
In his follow up to his Cy Young winning season, Keuchel posted a 4.55 ERA In 2016. His K/9 is down for the second consecutive season in 2017, but he is walking just 1.93 batters per nine, allowing just 0.64 home runs per nine and has stranded all but one of 20 base runners. Keuchel's 0.96 ERA balloons to a staggering 2.89 xFIP.
.630:Cincinnati Reds SS Zack Cozart's SLG%
Cozart ranks 11th with a slugging percentage of .630 and 35th with a ISO of .259. He plays his home games within the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, yet he remains with just one home run on the season. Cozart's fly-ball percentage is up and his hard-contact rate is down from last season, during which he hit 16 homers.
Both changes have been marginal, and there's little reason to think he can't finish with 20 homers, especially with an increased pull rate.