Martinez's season-opening DL stint dampens his draft day outlook
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Here are the fantasy implications following the news that Detroit Tigers OF J.D. Martinez will miss 3-to-4 weeks with an injured foot:
J.D.Martinez out 3-4 weeks with sprain of lisfranc ligament in right foot. He'll have foot in cast for 7-10 days.
— Jason Beck (@beckjason) March 24, 2017
The quick timeline projection of three weeks would see Martinez return having missed approximately 10 regular-season games, not exactly a deal-breaker. Pretty much every fantasy owner should have a DL slot or two available to start the season.
But if Martinez is out for the full month, he could potentially miss 17-plus games. It's not clear whether he'll jump right back to the majors when healthy or if he'll work his way back through extended Spring Training. That's enough of a reason to reconsider the order of outfielders at that point in the draft.
Martinez's consensus average draft position, per FantasyPros, is 47, making him the OF14 in standard mixed league drafts. Here's where that stacks up against the next five OFs off the board:
| NAME | TEAM | OF | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Martinez | DET | OF14 | 47.0 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | NYM | OF15 | 48.0 |
| Christian Yelich | MIA | OF16 | 55.3 |
| Wil Myers | SD | OF17 | 55.3 |
| Andrew McCutchen | PIT | OF18 | 57.5 |
| Gregory Polanco | PIT | OF19 | 60.8 |
Cespedes certainly deserves to be taken ahead of Martinez at this point. Yelich makes for a safer play than Martinez because even if his power regresses after a 22-homer breakout season, he can still fall back on excellent plate discipline; you'll still see some owners draft Martinez over Yelich because of the former's elite power potential, but expect the general consensus to favor Yelich.
Myers and McCutchen both have questions about their most recent seasons. Was Myers' breakout legitimate? Was McCutchen's down year an outlier or a sign of his impending decline? Martinez's ability to stay healthy -- he's played more than 125 games in just one of his six seasons -- is yet another concern that fits in nicely with this group of high-risk, high-reward options. Expect them all to go in the mid-50s.
As far as temporary replacements in the Tigers' lineup, Tyler Collins, JaCoby Jones and Steven Moya will each have a shot at right field. None has a chance to stick in an everyday role once Martinez returns, especially with Victor Martinez holding down DH duties, but there is one is capable of producing lightning in a bottle.
At 6-foot-6, Moya can leverage his massive frame for big extra-base hits -- just as long as he's not beating himself. He hit five HRs, four doubles and two triples in exactly 100 PAs with the big league club last year but also struck out in 38% of his PAs. A quick start in Martinez's absence could foreshadow a potential full-time role in the event of a mid-season injury at the major league level.
Don't draft Moya outside of the deepest keeper formats -- just make a note of his potential to contribute down the line. J.D. Martinez can be a league-winner when healthy but starting the season the DL isn't a great sign for his long-term fantasy value.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)