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Qualification permutations, Group C: Germany looks to secure top spot

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As we head into the final round of group stage matches at Euro 2016, it's time to break out the calculator and start, well, calculating how your favourite team can secure progression into the knockout stages.

The final matchday in Group C sees Germany meet the proverbial plucky underdog of the section in the form of Northern Ireland, while Tuesday's concurrent contest sees Poland lock horns with already eliminated Ukraine.

Before we get into the situation for the four teams, an important reminder of the tiebreakers:

  1. Head-to-head points between the teams in question.
  2. Head-to-head goal difference between the teams in question.
  3. Head-to-head goals scored between the teams in question.
  4. Goal difference in all group games.
  5. Goals scored in all group games.
  6. If two teams are still level and play each other in the final group game, they will have a penalty shootout.
  7. Fair play record (Each team starts the tournament with 10 fair play points; three are deducted for a red card, one for a yellow).
  8. Drawing of lots.

Group C Standings

Team W D L GF GA GD Points
Germany 1 1 0 2 0 +2 4
Poland 1 1 0 1 0 +1 4
Northern Ireland 1 0 1 2 1 +1 3
Ukraine 0 0 2 0 4 -4 0

Germany: A point against Northern Ireland guarantees the Germans progression, though the race for top spot with Poland is still underway. Germany holds the tiebreaker at the moment by virtue of its superior goal difference, so matching Poland's result in the concurrent fixture would be enough for Jogi Low's men to lock up top spot (assuming, of course, the result being matched isn't a defeat).

A win will almost certainly be enough for Germany to top the section - only Poland winning by a wide-enough margin to overturn its inferior goal difference could see the Poles leapfrog the Germans if the latter win today.

A loss could see Germany potentially slip down to third place.

Poland: A point against Ukraine will guarantee Robert Lewandowski and company second place in the group, and automatic qualification into the knockout stages. Only a win is good enough for Poland to top the group, and even that would require Germany to falter in some way.

Even with a loss, Poland would finish second if Northern Ireland does not beat Germany. Should the worst-case scenario come to fruition for Adam Nawalka's men (a loss and third-place finish), four points should still be enough to earn a knockout round berth as one of the best third-place finishers.

Northern Ireland: Must defeat Germany to secure automatic qualification into the knockout rounds. A win, combined with a Poland loss or draw, would see Northern Ireland, incredibly, win the group. A point against Germany would only be good enough for third place - though four points could be enough to advance as one of the best third-place finishers.

Ukraine: Already eliminated.

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