5 things you need to know about Wimbledon

Clay season is officially over, we've traded crushed red brick for hewn green lawns, and the world's oldest tennis tournament is about to begin. Prepare for two weeks of iconic imagery: flashy tennis whites, royal patronage, dainty English celebs, and yes, strawberries and cream. 

The traditionalism of London's All England Lawn Tennis Club is polarizing; some consider it a charming and sentimental call-back to a more elegant time, while others take issue with its self-serious, buttoned-down pretensions. 

Regardless of where you fall on that spectrum, it's tough to argue that the last remaining grass-court major isn't a damn sight to behold; an event steeped in history, prestige, and aesthetic splendour. 

On the eve of Wimbledon, here are five things to know about the tournament:

Can Andy Murray rediscover his mojo and defend his title?

The short answer: probably not.

Murray hasn’t made a tournament final since he famously became the first Brit in 77 years to win Wimbledon 12 months ago. By comparison, in the 12 months leading up to his victory, he played in seven finals and won five of them, including the Olympics and the U.S. Open.

The Andy Murray of the moment is not the same guy who came swaggering into the All England Club last year on the heels of three straight Grand Slam finals appearances. Today’s Andy Murray is a weary soul; lost, rudderless, and wracked by self-doubt.

The good news for Murray is that he’ll get a boost in seeding, thanks to Wimbledon’s surfaced-based rewards system. His past success on grass means he’ll be seeded third, rather than his world ranking of fifth, so he'll hypothetically avoid Novak Djokovic until the semis and Rafael Nadal until the final. Plus he hired a coach, something he’s been sorely missing since he parted ways with Ivan Lendl, his nominal Yoda, back in March.

But Murray's been a mess ever since undergoing back surgery in the fall. Rust was to be expected, but he’s been back on the court for seven months now and still doesn't look right. He’s lost 11 matches in 2014 - after losing eight all of last year - and he'll wind up with his lowest season winning percentage since 2006 if his current pace continues.

It isn’t just that he’s losing; it’s how. Look, Murray’s court demeanor was never going to win him any sportsmanship awards, but his outbursts used to carry some fire. These days he mostly just winces, sulks, and feels sorry for himself. Optics are rarely as instructive as we'd like to believe, but we'll say it anyway: this typically isn't how somebody who’s about to win Wimbledon looks. 

The fans will do their best to lift Murray up again, and it’s possible the memory of last year will awaken something in him. It’s not likely to matter. Crowd support can only carry you so far. And nostalgia can be a bitch.

How healthy is Rafael Nadal?   

It's hard to know with Rafa, who can look indestructible one week and debilitated the next. Vague injuries sometimes seem to crop up out of nowhere, usually after he loses. 

What to make of it? Is he simply constantly playing through pain? Is he above throwing up the occasional smokescreen? Nobody outside his camp ever seems quite sure what to believe.

Here’s what we know: Nadal has played one match since winning the French Open, and it was a 4-6, 1-6 waxing at the hands of 78th-ranked journeyman Dustin Brown on the grass in Germany. Afterwards, Nadal spoke about his latest ailment, fluid build-up and swelling in his back, similar to what ultimately railroaded him in the Australian Open final. 

Another thing we know: Nadal is feeling his age. If not physically, at least mentally. After suffering some uncharacteristic clay-season defeats this year, Nadal told everyone to get used to it:

[W]ith the years it is the normal thing and in the end everybody suffers. It’s part of the sport. It’s part of the careers of everybody … I am almost 28. At this age, [Bjorn] Borg was doing other things. It’s not possible to win for 10 years a lot of matches with easy results, easy scores.

For all that, he’s still played in four of the past five Slam finals and won three of them. But following up a French Open title with another one at Wimbledon is a huge ask. The quick turnaround and dramatic switch in surfaces can both junk up your game and exacerbate any lingering ailments. Nadal’s one of only four guys in the Open Era to manage the back-to-back, and the last time he pulled it off he was 24.

Those long clay-court seasons have been taking their toll. At Wimbledon, he got bounced in the second round in 2012 and the first round last year, marking his worst year-over-year results at any Grand Slam in his career. The resurfacing of the injury that effectively immobilized him at the Aussie won't help, and probably means Rafa sits on 14 Slams for at least another two months.

Serena, or the field?

With surprise 2013 winner Marion Bartoli now retired, we're guaranteed to have a new champion this season. Not surprisingly, Serena Williams, who's won three of the past five Wimbledons, is anointed the favorite. 

But she's had a pair of disappointing Grand Slam results in 2014, first being knocked off in the fourth round of the Australian Open, and then falling in the second at the French, where she was the defending champ. She hasn’t played a match since. It would be tempting, given her advancing age, to wonder whether this is a sign of things to come.

That would be premature. Serena’s still won three huge tournaments this year - in Brisbane, Miami, and Rome - and lost just four matches. She's not going anywhere yet. Remember, there were rumblings about her slipping in 2012, when she was similarly unable to parlay early-season success into Grand Slam titles.

All she did to finish that season was win Wimbledon, demolish everything in sight at the Olympics, win her fourth U.S. Open, and run roughshod over every other top-8 player to capture the end-of-season WTA Championship.

Serena will turn 33 in September, but she’s shown no real signs of slowing down physically. She's not the most agile player on tour but she never was. Her blunt-force power-baseline stuff is as good as ever, and that's never more daunting than on Wimbledon's slick grass surface. 

The last time Serena went Slamless in a season when she played all four of them was 2001. That’ll happen again eventually, but not this year. Expect her to justify her top billing and take home her sixth Wimbledon trophy. 

Are there any dark horses in the men’s draw?

Let’s be honest, men’s tennis isn’t really the place for bold predictions.

Eager as we are to jump on any sign of the field being leveled, the sport remains extremely top-heavy, very much in the palm of the ruling class. 

But let’s give another nod to Grigor Dimitrov. Why not? It seems like we’ve been predicting his breakout for so long, we might as well keep doing it until it finally happens. That way we can say we saw it coming all along.

It's surprising that Dimitrov has never made it past the second round here because the grass court should be conducive to his creative, angular, flat-hitting game. He proved as much by winning the tuneup tournament in London, trouncing world No. 3 Stan Wawrinka in straights along the way.

Despite an ugly first-round showing at Roland Garros, he's played the best tennis of his life this season, compiling a 30-9 record and winning three tournaments. He made his first Slam quarter in Australia this January, and could finally be poised to bust loose at Wimbledon.

Can Victoria Azarenka be a factor?

A recurring foot injury has limited Azarenka to four tournaments this season, and forced her to pull out of the French Open, ending a run of 33 straight Grand Slam appearances. Until her comeback tournament in Eastbourne this week (where she lost in the first round), she hadn’t played a match since Indian Wells in early March. She's subsequently dropped out of the top four for the first time in over three years.

While there's a precedent for players having immediate success after long layoffs (see: Nadal, R.) it’s rare, and for Azarenka, who thrives on consistency and momentum, very unlikely. There’s no reason she can’t get back to the level she was at; just don’t expect it to happen right away.

But you hope it doesn't take long, because Azarenka is one of the few players capable of matching the swiftness, power, and punishing baseline attack of Serena. Serena has still had the better of her over the years, but Azarenka was closing the gap before she went down, and at full strength is still as close to a foil as Serena has. 

Azarenka’s never been beloved of fans or her peers, but the women's tour is far less interesting without her, and if nothing else, it will be heartening to see her playing again, especially on this stage.