Canadian Open betting preview: Target elite drivers at TPC Toronto

The PGA TOUR heads north of the border this week for the RBC Canadian Open - the second-oldest non-major tournament on the calendar.

The event will be held at a new venue, moving away from the classic city courses to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley's North Course. A field of 156 golfers will take on the monstrous 7,389-yard, par-70 layout.

The course

• 7,389 yards, par 70
• Doug Carrick design
• Bentgrass greens
• Six par 4s are over 480 yards, and four are over 500 yards
• The course's main defense is its length
• Comparable venues: TPC San Antonio (Valero Texas Open), TPC Craig Ranch (CJ Cup Byron Nelson)

Outside of majors, new courses are rare on the PGA TOUR. But from a betting perspective, it presents an opportunity with a little extra research to gain an edge on the rest of the market.

From firsthand experience, "big" is the best way to describe this golf course. The fairways are wide, the greens are large, and the bunkers are deep. It's a driver-heavy layout that evokes minimal strategy off the tee. Players who gain strokes off the tee and are hitting their long irons well will have a huge advantage.

The greens are relatively simple and should be easy to putt on if a player hits it in the correct section of the green. That also means scrambling should be easier than usual, as the absence of wild undulations allows chip shots to settle more consistently near the hole.

Previous winners

2024: Robert MacIntyre (-16)
2023: Nick Taylor (-17)
2022: Rory McIlroy (-19)
2021: No tournament
2020: No tournament
2019: Rory McIlroy (-22)
2018: Dustin Johnson (-23)
2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21)

The favorites

Rory McIlroy is a heavy +450 favorite at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. The course is a perfect fit for the two-time Canadian Open winner since it's bombs away, and no one on the PGA TOUR is better with their driver than McIlroy. However, his price is very short, and he's coming off an uninspiring performance at the PGA Championship. There's a good chance he spends the week fine-tuning his game for Oakmont, and that's too big of a risk to take at his short odds.

Ludvig Aberg is the name that pops off the page in this section. He's long and straight off the tee - the reason he won earlier this year at Torrey Pines - and is coming off one of the best rounds of his career when he gained 6.7 strokes to the field in Round 4 of the Memorial Tournament.

Corey Conners and Taylor Pendrith will have a ton of local support and have a good opportunity to follow in fellow Canadian Nick Taylor's footsteps after his historic win in 2023. Conners is playing about as consistently as anyone on the PGA TOUR with nine top-25s in his last 10 starts. Meanwhile, Pendrith came T5 at the PGA Championship and T12 last week at the Memorial Tournament.

The next tier

Luke Clanton is making his professional debut, but he may be a recognizable name due to his success on the PGA TOUR as an amateur. He hits it a mile and is really good on long par 4s. In a statistical model created specifically for TPC Toronto, Clanton ranks second in the field over the past 36 rounds behind McIlroy and ahead of Conners, Keith Mitchell, Shane Lowry, and Aberg, to name a few.

Jake Knapp is another bomber who should have little issue navigating the new layout. He finished third at this course in 2019, before the renovation that added length.

Mitchell, Thorbjorn Olesen, Kurt Kitayama, Alex Smalley, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Thomas Detry are all viable options in this range due to their distance off the tee.

Picks

Ludvig Aberg: To win (+1400)

Aberg has struggled to find his form over the past month, but a 66 on Sunday at Muirfield Village should do wonders for his confidence heading to Canada.

The young Swede is an elite driver of the ball and can use his world-class long-iron play to separate from the field on lengthy par 4s. The North Course at TPC Toronto is tailor-made for Aberg's game, and a win this week would not be a surprise.

Luke Clanton: To win (+3300), top-10 finish (+400)

Clanton possesses a lot of the same tools as Aberg. In his 13 PGA TOUR starts, he's gained strokes off the tee 12 times. Though he hasn't competed on the TOUR since March, he's won twice at the collegiate level since, suggesting that the form that once made him the betting favorite in a PGA TOUR event as an amateur is still there.

Despite just 13 counting events, the 21-year-old is already ranked 115th in the Official World Golf Ranking, a number that'll surely skyrocket as the summer progresses. Clanton could replicate exactly what Aberg did two years ago and make the Ryder Cup team only a few months after debuting professionally in Canada.

Ricky Castillo: To win (+12500), top-20 finish (+375)

We're venturing well down the board for this one, but Castillo is a steal at +12500.

The PGA TOUR rookie came T5 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson two starts ago, a course that compares similarly to TPC Toronto. Castillo also came T12 at the Valspar Championship, a layout that demands precision off the tee and rewards strong long-iron play. He's 24th in strokes gained: off the tee, 46th in strokes gained: approach, and 32nd in driving distance on the PGA TOUR this season.

Antoine Rozner: To win (+25000), top-20 finish (+475)

Rozner is one of the best long-iron players in this field and enters the week off three quality starts on the PGA TOUR, with no finish outside of the top 35. Two of the tournaments - the Valero Texas Open and CJ Cup Byron Nelson - were held on courses with similar characteristics to TPC Toronto.

The Frenchman is +25000 for a reason, but he's a three-time winner on the DP World Tour and has the required tools to contend at this week's venue.