PGA TOUR betting: Kicking off 2024 in the Aloha State

Aloha, 2024!

A new year and PGA TOUR season kicks off this week from the beautiful island of Maui, Hawaii. The Plantation Course at Kapalua will host a 59-man field for The Sentry, a tournament that's dropped the moniker "Tournament of Champions," as the field has expanded beyond last year's winners.

The field remains stout despite the absence of Jon Rahm, who jumped ship to LIV Golf in December. Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland headline the group. The two notable absentees are Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas.

The course

• Plantation Course at Kapalua
• 7,596 yards, par 73
• Bermuda-grass greens
• Only three par 3s
• Short par 5s except 677-yard 18th hole
• Wide, forgiving fairways
• Wind is the course's main defense
• Severe elevation changes throughout the course

Past winners

2023: Jon Rahm (-27) over Collin Morikawa
2022: Cameron Smith (-34) over Jon Rahm
2021: Harris English (-25) in a playoff over Joaquin Niemann
2020: Justin Thomas (-14) in a playoff over Patrick Reed, Xander Schauffele
2019: Xander Schauffele (-23) over Gary Woodland
2018: Dustin Johnson (-24) over Jon Rahm
2017: Justin Thomas (-22) over Hideki Matsuyama
2016: Jordan Spieth (-30) over Patrick Reed
2015: Patrick Reed (-21) in a playoff over Jimmy Walker
2014: Zach Johnson (-19) over Jordan Spieth
2013: Dustin Johnson (-16) over Steve Stricker

The favorites

Odds via theScore Bet

Scheffler enters as the clear favorite at +550. He won the Hero World Challenge, which marks the last time we saw this collection of golfers compete. And, if tournament history tells us anything, winners at Kapalua have also found plenty of success at Augusta National. Bettors fading the former Masters champ should be worried.

However, Scheffler's price still feels too short, especially when we can only judge his recent form based on an event that was played a month ago.

Collin Morikawa is worth a look too. He played very well late last season and found a win at the Zozo Championship in Japan. Morikawa was also in the driver's seat in Kapalua last year before his short game disappointed down the stretch.

That said, it's Xander Schauffele who deserves the most attention at his price among the favorites. He's a former winner and lost in a playoff the following year, so he's proven he can stay in form during golf's short offseasons and be ready to go for the year's opening event.

The next tier

This range is where the depth of the field shines compared to previous years, as a lot of these names wouldn't have been in the tournament if the format remained limited to winners.

Tony Finau jumps off the page at +2800. Not only is the price palatable, but his skills suit Kapalua: He has the length to take advantage of the course's short par 5s and the firepower to rack up enough birdies to win. Finau also tied for fourth at the Hero World Challenge.

Jordan Spieth may get a lot of love around the golf betting world this week, but that feels like it's based more on the hope he's in for a big year rather than his recent body of work.

Despite a solid crop of players to choose from in this range, prices on the majority are too short to get excited about. It's a long golf season and there's no reason to force outright wagers, especially with limited recent information on performance.

Picks

Xander Schauffele: To Win (+1600)

We'll stick with our love for Schauffele from the favorites section. This price is as long as you will find in the market, and though it's not much different than +1400, which is widely available, these small discrepancies can make large differences if the bet hits.

It's reasonable to expect Schauffele to be extra motivated this season. He was held out of the winner's circle in 2023 despite playing well and faced criticism following the Ryder Cup for his father's comments about player compensation. There's no better way to flip the narrative than winning out of the gate.

Schauffele seems to love Kapalua given his past results and, although it's a long time ago, he played great to finish the 2023 season.

Tony Finau: Top 5 (+450)

We'll pass on Finau at +2800 in the outright market and go with the slightly safer top-five option at +450, a price you could likely shop around for to find better odds.

Finau has played Kapalua three times and improved on his previous finish each time. That shows his comfort level is growing at a course that does take some time to get used to. He tied for seventh in Maui last year.

Sahith Theegala: Top 10 (+500)

Expectations for Theegala are high going into 2024 after he picked up his first career win in September. And there's no reason to believe he can't get off to a hot start at The Sentry.

The wide fairways at Kapalua will help Theegala play from the short grass, as he's not the most accurate driver. This will allow his iron play and wicked short game to do the work. He's also one of the better putters in the field.

Few players with odds as long as Theegala can claim similar upside. Now is the time to bet him before the market realizes his ceiling.

J.T. Poston: Top 20 (+175)

We'll wrap it up with Poston in the top-20 market at +175. It's obviously a lot easier to get into the top 20 in a 59-man field than in a standard field of 156, and this price does not reflect how well Poston ended the 2023 season.

Poston finished inside the top 10 in five of his last nine events and just outside of the top 20 in two more. His approach play improved dramatically over that stretch, and if it can continue into 2024 - in combination with his always hot flatstick - Poston will be in the mix much more than his odds indicate.