Scottish Open betting: Finding value heading into the weekend

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Rory McIlroy leads the Scottish Open by one shot heading into the weekend at The Renaissance Club.

The Northern Irishman sits ahead of Tyrrell Hatton, Tom Kim (both tipped as picks to win earlier this week), and first-round leader Byeong Hun An.

McIlroy is playing exceptionally tee-to-green, leading the tournament with 9.4 strokes gained prior to needing his putter. But the 34-year-old currently ranks 60th in the field on the green. If McIlroy's flatstick heats up, he's in line to earn a multi-shot victory.

But if it doesn't, combined with some regression in McIlroy's tee-to-green play, the Scottish Open remains wide open.

Odds to win

Staying focused on the outright market, it's hard to ignore Kim at +900. He's in the same spot on the leaderboard as Hatton, yet more than double the odds. Yes, Hatton's pedigree deservedly gives him an edge over Kim. However, suggesting the Englishman (20% implied probability) is twice as likely to win compared to the young Korean (10% implied probability) at this stage of the tournament presents a betting opportunity.

Pick: Tom Kim +900

We'll dive deeper on the betting board to find one more pick to win with Wyndham Clark at +5000. The reigning U.S. Open champion ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green. But his poor display on the greens - where he ranks 73rd in the field in strokes gained: putting - has him five off the pace in a tie for 17th.

Clark is known to be one of the better putters in the world. If anyone can post a 7- or 8-under in Round 3 to vault into contention for Sunday, it's him.

Pick: Wyndham Clark +5000

If the outright market is where you feel comfortable making a wager, here are a few third-round bets to consider.

Tom Kim vs. Sam Burns

We're targeting Kim again versus Sam Burns in a Round 3 matchup. Burns is fresh off a 5-under 65 in Round 2, gaining over three strokes on the green to rank second in the field. It's hard to expect that level of production with the putter for a second straight day from Burns. And Kim's ball-striking should consistently put him in a better scoring position over 18 holes Saturday.

Pick: Tom Kim (-115, playable to -120)

J. Thomas vs. M. Wallace vs. S. Valimaki

Justin Thomas is grouped with Matt Wallace and Sami Valimaki for Round 3 with a 2:44 a.m. ET tee time. The American is clearly the best player in this trio and the favorite at +105, but there's plenty to like, even at his short price for a three-ball.

Thomas ranks 14th in strokes gained: tee-to-green through two rounds but has lost a handful of shots on the greens to rank 72nd with the flatstick. The putter has been Thomas' weakness all season. However, there's reason to believe he can slowly turn things around with his new left-hand-low putting grip. Expect Thomas to make noise Saturday and easily handle his group.

Pick: Justin Thomas (+105, playable to -110)

(Odds via theScoreBet)