Scottish Open betting preview: Hatton primed for 1st win of 2023

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The PGA TOUR heads overseas this week for the Scottish Open - a co-sanctioned event with the DP World Tour - in what will be an opportunity for many of the game's top players to get acclimated to links golf ahead of next week's Open Championship.

The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland will host the national tournament for a fifth straight year as 156 players from around the world descend on the links-style course.

Xander Schauffele will look to defend his title over the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, and Rickie Fowler.

The course

• The Renaissance Club, North Berwick, Scotland
• 7,237 yards, par 70
• Traditional links-style venue
• All three par 5s under 600 yards

Past winners

2022: Xander Schauffele (-7) over Kurt Kitayama
2021: Min Woo Lee (-18) in a playoff over Thomas Detry, Matt Fitzpatrick
2020: Aaron Rai (-11) in a playoff over Tommy Fleetwood
2019: Bernd Wiesberger (-22) in a playoff over Benjamin Hebert

The following weren't played at The Renaissance Club:

2018: Brandon Stone (-20) over Eddie Pepperell
2017: Rafa Cabrera Bello (-13) in a playoff over Callum Shinkwin
2016: Alex Noren (-14) over Tyrrell Hatton
2015: Rickie Fowler (-12) over Matt Kuchar, Raphael Jacquelin
2014: Justin Rose (-16) over Kristoffer Broberg

The favorites

Scheffler tops the betting board at +700. There isn't a single negative thing to say about the World No. 1 other than in a 156-man field, his odds, while deserved, are short. Backing Scheffler as the only pick isn't the betting strategy being deployed this week.

For comparison, you can back both Cantlay and defending champion Schauffele for the same price as betting only Scheffler. While the former feels like a better deal than the latter, we'll be venturing further down the betting board to find value.

The next tier

This range presents a variety of betting options thanks to Scheffler and McIlroy soaking up a lot of the implied win probability at the top of the oddsboard.

Tommy Fleetwood has been playing some great golf lately. He lost in a playoff at the Canadian Open and followed that up with a tied-for-fifth showing at the U.S. Open. The Englishman lost in a playoff at the Renaissance Club in 2019 and came tied for fourth last year.

Shane Lowry is another European who will feel very comfortable being back on a links course. The Irishman is in the midst of a consistent stretch of golf, having placed inside the top 20 in four of his past five starts and gained strokes putter in all four of those solid results. If his putter can continue this form, the former Open champion should make some noise Sunday.

Min Woo Lee is a former Scottish Open winner at The Renaissance Club and is coming off back-to-back top 10s on the PGA TOUR (T5 at the U.S. Open, T9 at the Travelers Championship). His name isn't typically grouped with those he's surrounded by on the betting board, but it's warranted this week given Lee's course history and recent form.

Finally, Justin Thomas at +5000 has to be considered. His form hasn't been great, but he did gain 7.2 strokes with his approach shots two starts ago at the Travelers Championship, a key indicator that Thomas is starting to find his game. He also finished tied for eight at the Scottish Open in 2021.

Long shots

While it appears most of the preferred betting targets are located in the +2000 to +5000 range, there are still a few names further down the board worth considering.

Aaron Rai (+7000): The 2020 Scottish Open winner has two top-10 showings in his last three starts on the PGA TOUR and gained over 6.5 strokes with his approaches in each of those events. During his tied-for-third result at the Canadian Open, he gained a whopping 14 strokes tee to green to lead the field.

Alex Noren (+10000): The Swede is another former winner, albeit at a different course, worth considering. He finished in a tie for ninth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and tends to play well on links courses, especially in tough weather conditions.

Both of the above players are worth a top-20 wager at +260 and +400, respectively.

Picks to win

Tyrrell Hatton (+1800)

Hatton is trending toward a win, and you could argue he's playing the best golf in the world of anyone who hasn't hoisted a trophy in 2023. He has six top-six-or-better finishes on the PGA TOUR in 2023, including a runner-up at The Players, a third at the Wells Fargo Championship, and a third at the Canadian Open. Hatton is third in the field in strokes gained: total over his last 24 rounds, behind only McIlroy and Scheffler.

The Englishman loves links golf. He has won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship twice, finished second at the 2016 Scottish Open, and has two top-six finishes at the Open Championship in his career. If he were to end his 2023 winless drought, this week would be the time to do it.

Wyndham Clark (+4000)

Have oddsmakers already forgotten about the U.S. Open champion?

Clark is priced alongside players who aren't in nearly as good of form as he is. Clark has two wins in his past five starts and also fit in a 12th at the Memorial during that stretch. Sure, the American doesn't have the links-course experience as others priced around him, but he did finish in a tie for 16th at the Scottish Open last year. His game today is head and shoulders above his game from last season so there's absolutely no reason to believe he cannot contend - and win - for a third time in three months.

Tom Kim (+5000)

Kim's sophomore season on the PGA TOUR hasn't gone as well as last year when he broke onto the scene with two victories in 2022. However, there are signs the young Korean is turning his game around for a late-summer run.

In two of his past three starts, Kim has gained over five strokes through approach shots, the skill that led to his magnificent debut last season. This mini stretch through the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship was the first time he's recorded back-to-back performances of this quality with his irons since October 2022.

If Kim has indeed turned the corner, then the Renaissance Club is the perfect spot for him to contend once again. He placed tied for third at this event last season as it's a course that will allow his elite long-iron game to thrive.