Sanderson Farms betting preview: Scheffler returns at perfect time
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New to golf betting? Check out theScore's PGA Tour wagering guide here. All odds listed are courtesy of theScore Bet.

The PGA Tour is in Jackson, Mississippi, this week for the Sanderson Farms Championship. The 144-man field is headlined by Scottie Scheffler and Sungjae Im as most of the top golfers continue to play a limited schedule during the fall.

One trend from past Sanderson Farms Championships to consider before placing any wagers is that the last six champions have all been first-time PGA Tour winners.

The course

  • 7,461 yards, par 72
  • Bermudagrass greens
  • Seven par 4s under 450 yards
  • Three of four par 5s under 600 yards
  • Greens are easier to hit in regulation compared to the average PGA Tour stop

Past winners

2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18) in a playoff over Sungjae Im
2018: Cameron Champ (-21) over Corey Conners
2017: Ryan Armour (-19) over Chesson Hadley
2016: Cody Gribble (-20) over Luke List, Chris Kirk, Greg Owen
2015: Peter Malnati (-18) over William McGirt, David Toms
2014: Nick Taylor (-16) over Jason Bohn, Boo Weekley

The favorites

Player Odds
Scottie Scheffler +1200
Sungjae Im +1600
Will Zalatoris +2200
Zach Johnson +2500
Sebastian Munoz +2800

Scheffler comes in as the favorite this week in his first start since testing positive for COVID-19. He was playing exceptionally well prior to withdrawing from the U.S. Open, at which many liked his chances to contend. He's clearly the best player in action and deserving of the +1200 price tag.

Im lost in a playoff to Munoz at last year's Sanderson Farms, so course fit isn't an issue. He's gained over four strokes through approach shots in his last two events and returns to Bermudagrass, on which he tends to putt well. No one should talk you out of backing the 22-year-old at a reasonable +1600.

The rest of this group isn't overly intriguing.

Zalatoris admitted he was exhausted last week at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Johnson at +2500 is easy to pass on, and it's tough to imagine Munoz - who's actually playing well - will defend his title.

The next tier

Player Odds
Corey Conners +3000
Brian Harman +3000
Sam Burns +3000
Adam Long +4000
Byeong Hun An +4000
Chez Reavie +4000
Doc Redman +4000
Dylan Frittelli +4000
Emiliano Grillo +4500
Lucas Glover +4500
Pat Perez +4500

Burns leaps off the page as a value option at +3000. He was +1400 to win last week in Punta Cana and now is double the price despite the field getting only marginally stronger. The Louisiana native finished third in Jackson last year, has made the cut all three times at the event, and is playing some of the best golf of his career.

Redman is also a tremendous value play. He's knocking on the door of his first Tour title by placing third in two of his past three starts thanks to some incredible strokes gained: approach numbers.

Harman, Reavie, and Frittelli are reasonably priced and should carry recent form into contention this week.

The long shots

Given the level of confidence in Scheffler or Im winning this week, it's risky to dive too far into the long-shot range. However, here are a few players to consider whose prices don't match their talent level:

Henrik Stenson (+5500): His pedigree is unmatched in this field, and he's coming off a solid result in Punta Cana. These are really long odds for one of the best ball-strikers in a field lacking star power.

Cameron Davis (+6000): The Aussie's length off the tee and ability to catch a hot putter resembles the method Cameron Champ used to win the 2018 Sanderson Farms Championship.

Xinjun Zhang (+6500): He has back-to-back top-15 results and had a real shot at winning last week before a poor Sunday. Zhang is no stranger to the winner's circle, taking home two Korn Ferry Tour titles in 2019.

Davis Riley (+12500): The Mississippi native, who's arguably as skilled as Zalatoris, should feel right at home this week. He's won twice this season on the Korn Ferry Tour and finished tied for 39th at last year's Sanderson Farms.

Picks to win

Scottie Scheffler (+1200)

Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Very rarely is it recommended to bet the favorite, but it seems warranted this week. First, Scheffler is priced above +1000 and offers some value compared to other front-runners in the betting market.

He's also on a completely different tier compared to the rest of the field. In his last five starts (which include a major, a WGC, and three playoff events), he's recorded three top-fives and no finish outside the top 20.

Next, he's averaged 6.8 strokes gained: tee to green in his last six starts, all of which were in stacked fields. He tied for 16th at last year's Sanderson Farms - a week that included a second-round 66 - and finished 45th but gained over 10 strokes tee to green in 2018 as a Korn Ferry Tour member.

Scheffler fits the trend of first-time Tour winners in Jackson and could potentially dominate this weak field.

Doc Redman (+4000)

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If you want to take only Scheffler and hope for a sweat come Sunday, all the power to you. But winning on the PGA Tour is still very hard, so it's worth considering a few other options.

Redman would top the list of players who can go toe to toe with Scheffler. His approach game is one of the best in the field, which will give the 22-year-old ample birdie opportunities over 72 holes. His recent near-misses will only help him when he finds himself in contention again on Sunday. Plus, this is a rare opportunity to get Redman at +4000; you could argue he should be priced in the +2000 range.

Cameron Davis (+6000)

Jed Jacobsohn / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Davis is another young player looking for his maiden PGA Tour victory. He's played well in four straight events and one of the few bombers in the field who can also go lights-out on the greens. He placed 29th in Jackson last season and gained over four strokes through approach shots in each of his two attempts at Sanderson Farms.

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Sanderson Farms betting preview: Scheffler returns at perfect time
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