Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Best bets for this week's action in California
The PGA Tour is in Northern California this week for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which is typically one of the most unpredictable tournaments on the golf schedule.
Pebble Beach Golf Links (6,816-yard par 72), Monterey Peninsula Country Club's Shore Course (6,958-yard par 71), and Spyglass Hill (6,960-yard par 72) will all play host to the 156-man field.
The cut will come after 54 holes, with the final round being played at Pebble Beach.
High winds are expected for Friday, with some rain and cooler temperatures in the forecast adding another layer of variability to the event.
Add in the fact that each professional is partnered with an amateur for the event, and this week is simply chaotic - it shows with recent winners like Ted Potter Jr. and Vaughn Taylor.
With that being said, here are the best bets for this limited-exposure week:
Outright winners
Jordan Spieth (18-1)
It's rare to see Jordan Spieth priced this high, especially at a tournament where he's had plenty of success. In comparison, he's no greater than 16-1 at any of the majors this season, all of which have far deeper fields than the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Spieth showed flashes of his old self at Torrey Pines two weeks ago and looks to have regained confidence with the flatstick. This week's shorter courses will allow him to keep the driver in the bag more often - a positive given his recent struggles off the tee.
Branden Grace (33-1)
Branden Grace embraces terrible weather. He proved it by charging up the leaderboard when it was raining and cold during the Phoenix Open's final round, nearly edging out Rickie Fowler after a final-round 2-under 69.
The South African finished inside the top 20 at Pebble Beach last year as the course rotation fits his accuracy-over-power game. With strong form and ugly weather, Grace should thrive.
Russell Henley (75-1)
Russell Henley finished in a tie for 15th at last week's Phoenix Open. He gained 6.1 strokes tee to green, indicating that the typically strong putter is primed to contend. He's played well at events prone to windy conditions as well, with good results at the Houston Open and Sony Open in Honolulu.
Henley opened at 90-1 and has been bet down to 75-1, which is still great value for a player with his pedigree. It's easy to forget he's a three-time PGA Tour winner.
Tournament matchup
Jason Day (+140) over Dustin Johnson
This one is a bit risky, as Dustin Johnson can lap the field any given week, however, Jason Day has very similar success at Pebble Beach - only without DJ's two wins. The big concern for Johnson is the travel factor after playing in Saudi Arabia last week. Yes, he won, but he's never traveled halfway around the world the week prior to competing at Pebble Beach.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (EVEN) over Shane Lowry
This matchup bet is heavily influenced by weather, as Fitzpatrick and Lowry are playing the three courses on different days. Lowry will play the much tougher Pebble Beach on Friday, which is expected to see wind speeds around 20 mph from the south - where the course is exposed to the ocean. Fitzpatrick will play the much easier Monterey Peninsula on Friday and should be able to play well when the winds are blowing. Fingers crossed the weather reports are accurate.