Stars might have squandered best chance to win Stanley Cup

This was supposed to be the year for the Dallas Stars.

A team that had come so close to winning its second Stanley Cup in franchise history in 2020, 2023, and 2024 was supposed to break through the dam in 2025. But instead, its season ended at the hands of the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Final for the second consecutive year Thursday night.

Making it further than 28 other teams is impressive in its own right, especially with series wins against the juggernaut Colorado Avalanche and the Presidents' Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets. But there's no denying the 2024-25 campaign should be viewed as a failure for Dallas. It was Stanley Cup or bust.

The Stars went all in prior to the 2025 trade deadline, acquiring Mikko Rantanen, Mikael Granlund, and Cody Ceci. They're now without first-round picks for three of the next four drafts.

Rantanen - who signed an eight-year extension after coming to Dallas - gave the Stars the game-breaker atop the lineup they desperately needed. Granlund provided valuable offensive punch to an already deep forward group. Ceci was acquired to help shore up the right side of the blue line, but it's fair to wonder if he made much of a difference.

The failure to better address the right defense proved to be a major part of Dallas' undoing. Jim Nill is up for his third straight GM of the year award, but he's far from perfect.

Ceci struggled mightily against the Oilers, going minus-5 in five games with a 46.75% expected goals share at five-on-five. Nill's other right defense additions from the offseason - Ilya Lyubushkin and Matt Dumba - combined for just one appearance in the Western Conference Final.

Lyubushkin, who signed a three-year deal with worth $3.25 million annually in the summer, was a healthy scratch in Games 2-5. Dumba was a healthy scratch the entire postseason, despite his $3.75-million cap hit that was bewildering the moment it was signed July 1. He's under contract for next year, too, which is especially troublesome considering the cap crunch the Stars find themselves in this offseason.

Well-deserved, yet high-priced extensions kicking in next season for Rantanen ($12M), Wyatt Johnston ($8.4M), and Jake Oettinger ($8.25M) eat up a lot of Dallas' cap space. The team enters the offseason with just $4.95 million left to work with and only 16 players under contract.

Wondering where everyone else is? Captain Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, Evgenii Dadonov, Colin Blackwell, Granlund, and Ceci are unrestricted free agents. Mavrik Bourque and Nils Lundkvist are restricted free agents due for modest raises. Bourque, in particular, could be a prime offer sheet target.

Nill must find a way to move Dumba's $3.75 million, though the cost to do so likely won't be cheap. Lyubushkin could be easier to move, but he's more serviceable than Dumba. Mason Marchment, earning $4.5 million in the last year of his deal, could be a cap casualty, too - though the Stars would be able to get something positive for him if they trade him.

One thing is clear: A team that was built on extraordinary depth will be much thinner in 2025-26. If the Stars couldn't get past the Oilers this year, what chance do they have next year with what stands to be a significantly worse roster?

The Stars will still remain competitive. A core built around Rantanen, Hintz, Robertson, Johnston, Heiskanen, Harley, and Oettinger should be good for years to come. But it's hard to imagine Dallas will be able to replicate the depth of the 2024-25 team - even with the blue-line flaws - anytime soon.

(Cap source: PuckPedia)
(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick)