Running analysis of Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

Our hockey writers are sharing observations throughout Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Check back for daily analysis. Tap to see the upcoming schedule.

Wednesday, April 30

Ullmark is Leafs' latest nemesis

Linus Ullmark was the picture of calm in the Senators' net Tuesday. He stoned 29 shots in Ottawa's 4-0 road win at a subdued Scotiabank Arena. He's the sixth goalie whose brilliance in an elimination game prevented the Maple Leafs from closing out a series.

Opposing netminders own a 13-1 record with the following numbers in this Leafs core's 14 closeout opportunities:

Their collective stat line: 408 saves on 433 shots, .942 save percentage, two shutouts, five overtime victories. They famously foiled 30 consecutive Leafs power plays in these games. Toronto's last PP goal in a clinching scenario came from Patrick Marleau's deflection two minutes into Game 7 against the 2018 Bruins.

The Battles of Ontario and Florida are the only ongoing series that haven't featured a goalie change. Ottawa stuck with Ullmark through a few shaky games. Toronto's Anthony Stolarz was dominant early in the matchup and has been let down by a lack of scoring support, with two Leafs goals tallied over the last six periods of action.

Ullmark's Senators were the 212th NHL team to go down 3-0 in a series. They're the 26th to force Game 6, upping the success rate of underdogs in the situation to 12%, per Hockey Reference. For the record, 15 of those clubs fell in the sixth game, six lost in seven, and four rallied to complete the reverse sweep. - Nick Faris

Pearson's feel-good moment

Stick tap to Tanner Pearson. The veteran forward has been through a lot over the last few seasons.

Pearson was limited to 14 games in 2022-23 due to a hand injury that was mismanaged by the Canucks. Another hand injury limited him to 54 contests with the Canadiens a year ago. After signing a professional tryout, he had to earn a roster spot with the Golden Knights this campaign.

But Pearson played a huge role in the Golden Knights' overtime victory in Game 5 against the Wild, winning a key puck battle behind the net before setting up Brett Howden's game-winner with a sweet no-look pass. The assist was Pearson's first playoff point since the 2020 bubble.

The 32-year-old, who won a Cup with the Kings in 2014, is a depth player at this point in his career, but it's great to see him healthy and contributing again. - Josh Wegman

Caps, Jets, Bolts injury carousel

The expected return of Aliaksei Protas from a skate cut would be a major boost to the Capitals, who have the second round in their sights. Breakout seasons from the likes of Protas, a hulking 30-goal forward, helped catapult the Caps from the playoff fringe to the top of the Eastern Conference. They can eliminate the young, overachieving Canadiens at home in Wednesday's Game 5.

Lit up by the Blues in consecutive games, the Jets hope Gabe Vilardi can supply a spark in his comeback from injury. Vilardi authored his own career year while riding shotgun with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the NHL's most-used forward line. His return strengthens every line and adds support for Connor and Scheifele, who carried Winnipeg to two opening victories but were stifled along with the rest of the lineup in St. Louis.

The Lightning will try to stay afloat without Brandon Hagel, who absorbed the elbow to the head that got Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad suspended. The Battle of Florida's been nightmarish for Hagel. He has no points, hasn't been on the ice for a Tampa Bay goal, and was banished from Game 3. Hagel's late hit on Aleksander Barkov initiated a tit for tat in a chaotic, violent series. - Nick Faris

Losing goalies deserving better

There's only so much goalies can do at times. They can do their job incredibly well but have nothing to show for it. Take Jacob Markstrom, for example.

The Devils were vastly outmatched in a 4-1 series loss against the Hurricanes, but Markstrom was the only reason New Jersey was able to steal Game 3 and force overtime in Game 5. He faced 180 shots in the series (36 per game), more than any other goalie in the playoffs. He posted a .911 save percentage and stopped 5.07 goals saved above expected - the second-best mark among goalies this postseason, trailing only his counterpart for most of the series, Frederik Andersen (6.89), per Evolving-Hockey.

Markstrom isn't the only one, though.

Filip Gustavsson stole Games 2 and 3 for the Wild, stopping 30 of 32 shots in each contest. Even in back-to-back OT losses he turned aside 65 of 71 shots - especially impressive considering he was likely playing through an illness in Game 5 before eventually departing after the second period. He leads all goalies with a .919 save percentage this postseason and ranks fifth in GSAx.

Even Darcy Kuemper, whose playoffs started with a rough showing in Game 1, has turned a corner. He was the only reason L.A. managed to stay in Game 5, saving 43 of 45 shots. His save percentage the last four games is .916. Overall, his 1.48 GSAx is eighth-best this postseason - an impressive mark against the high-powered Oilers offense that's totally controlled the last few games. - Josh Wegman

Oilers' unsung heroes emerge

Mattias Janmark, scorer of six goals over his last 151 regular-season games, bagged his sixth goal of the past two postseasons for the surging Oilers in Wednesday's 3-1 win.

They leaned on the Kings until the dam burst. Evander Kane tied Game 5 on the Oilers' 22nd shot, and Janmark was on the spot to bury shot No. 38, a rebound in transition. Coach Kris Knoblauch dresses Janmark to kill penalties and be stingy for 10 minutes a night, but the fourth-line center's reputation for clutch offense continues to grow. Last year, his breakaway finish was Edmonton's only goal in Game 7 of the Cup Final.

Plus-minus is a flawed stat, but there's no discrediting Jake Walman's plus-8 differential in this series, the current NHL high. The deadline pickup gained body position on a Kings forechecker and airmailed the puck to start the rush that led to Janmark's winner. Los Angeles has four goals in the last eight periods, and none in the span when Walman, a defensive stabilizer, has been on the ice. - Nick Faris

Carolina's finally clutch

Sebastian Aho's series clincher at 4:17 of double overtime snapped the Hurricanes' cold streak in sudden death. The Canes had lost six consecutive playoff overtime games since the 2023 Eastern Conference Final on goals by these opponents: Matthew Tkachuk, Tkachuk again, Mathew Barzal, Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin, and Simon Nemec.

A fitting hero pushed Carolina to Round 2. Aho's eight points against the Devils were a series high. He had two power-play snipes in Tuesday's theatrical 5-4 win, starting with the equalizer after the Canes got down 3-0 within 10 minutes and trailed again in the second period. Aho's second career playoff OT goal follows his series finisher against the Predators in the first round of 2021.

Aho models consistency. He's virtually assured to post a double-digit point total for the seventh straight postseason. He's up to 78 points in 79 career playoff outings. The only NHLers with better scoring rates over a similar volume of games are this era's defining legends (Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, Sidney Crosby) and their superstar sidekicks (Leon Draisaitl, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, Evgeni Malkin). - Nick Faris

Leafs' power play disappoints - again

The Maple Leafs' five-forward power-play unit dazzled down the stretch of the regular season, then put up five goals on nine opportunities to start the playoffs. The past two games have been a completely different story.

Toronto's power play was a liability in both Game 4 and Game 5.

On Tuesday, it failed to capitalize on three crucial opportunities against Ottawa despite extensive offensive-zone time. Props to the Senators for adjusting their penalty-killing strategy mid-series. All four skaters are collapsing in the slot area, encouraging Toronto to pass the puck around the perimeter while basically daring Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and the other Leafs stars to pick a corner on goalie Linus Ullmark. Zero picked so far.

Making matters worse, the Leafs have now surrendered a shorthanded goal in consecutive games. Matthews misread the PK coverage Tuesday and passed the puck to Adam Gaudette instead of Mitch Marner. Nylander, gassed from a long shift, couldn't keep up with Dylan Cozens on the ensuing rush. Gaudette fed Cozens, and he beat Anthony Stolarz clean for the shortie.

The special teams score in Games 4 and 5: Sens 3, Leafs 0. The power-play time: Toronto 12:24, Ottawa 5:32.

There's much more to pick apart about the Leafs' woeful showing in Game 5. But the headlining issue is the power play and its lack of pop. - John Matisz

Spotless victory for plucky Sens

Brady Tkachuk is apparently a man of his word.

"We're coming back here," the Senators captain barked multiple times to the Canadian Tire Centre crowd Saturday, having just avoided a series sweep at the hands of the Maple Leafs. Now, after Tuesday's statement victory in Toronto, the Senators are indeed headed back to Ottawa. Game 6 of the Battle of Ontario goes Thursday, and all the pressure is on the visiting Leafs.

The Sens played a nearly flawless team game Tuesday. The skater group was excellent defensively in all situations. Goalie Linus Ullmark authored his finest performance so far, turning aside 29 Toronto shots. Key offensive pieces produced - Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle combined for six points, while Thomas Chabot and Dylan Cozens each bagged their first career playoff goal.

The 4-0 win was the Sens' 11th shutout of 2024-25. Their 10 regular-season blanks tied the Connor Hellebuyck-juiced Jets for most in the NHL.

Jake Sanderson deserves a boatload of credit. The stud blue-liner was good in the opener and has upped his value with each passing game. He sniped the winning goal in Game 4 and put on an absolute clinic in modern defending in Game 5. Sanderson eliminated offense all over the ice in a game-high 26:27, leveraging his skating and reach like few NHLers can. - John Matisz

Tuesday, April 29

Ekblad's punishment fits on-ice crime

Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad was suspended two games for delivering what the NHL Department of Player Safety considers a "high, forceful elbow" to the head of Lightning forward Brandon Hagel.

It's a reasonable punishment for Ekblad's retaliatory actions.

The incident occurred Monday in the second period of Game 4 in the Battle of Florida. It was Ekblad's second contest back after serving a 20-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy.

Hagel exited Game 4 with an apparent head injury, and the Lightning have already ruled out the 90-point man for Wednesday's Game 5. Hagel himself was suspended for one game earlier in the series after laying out an unsuspecting Aleksander Barkov. The feisty winger had a target on his back.

The league said in its explanation video that Hagel's injury factored into the length. Conversely, Ekblad's clean record ("no relevant history") helped the 11-year veteran's case. - John Matisz

Bednar's doppelganger goes viral

The Stanley Cup Playoffs don't have to be completely serious all the time, and the Dallas fan impersonating Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar on Monday night offered a fun reminder of the spirit of the game.

In what was the biggest game of the series so far, this fan's getup created a lasting memory in an outstanding Stars performance that gave the team a 3-2 series lead. Bednar's doppelganger is reminiscent of former Senators bench boss Paul MacLean's lookalike, and with the Stars guaranteed to return home - be it in this series or the next - look out for this fan's next act. - Sean O'Leary

McDavid, Gretzky, and a historical quirk

When Connor McDavid faces the Kings in the postseason, his mind-boggling production puts him on par with No. 99.

McDavid has nine points through Game 4 (average of 2.25 per night), 45 points in 22 career Oilers-Kings matchups (2.05), and 126 points in 78 total playoff games (1.62). His colossal scoring average ranks second in Stanley Cup Playoffs history.

Wayne Gretzky (1.84 points per game) is the enduring record-holder. Mario Lemieux (1.61) is right behind McDavid. Retired center Barry Pederson (1.53) torched some defenses for the 1980s Bruins. And Edmonton's Leon Draisaitl (1.50) is another Kings slayer. They're the only qualified players who remotely compare to McDavid across a century of playoff action.

Then there are McDavid's unqualified comparables. Newsy Lalonde's 15 goals in seven bygone playoff games are the stuff of legend. Four fringe forwards dazzled in playoff cameos, never drew into the lineup again, and place high on the career points-per-game leaderboard before a filter is applied.

Derek Laxdal dished two assists for the 1990 Islanders in his single playoff outing. Rusty Crawford (1918 Toronto Arenas), Don Deacon (1939 Red Wings), and Steven Rice (1991 Rangers) share a stat line: two appearances, two goals, one assist. Rice, a first-round draft pick who was shipped to Edmonton in the Mark Messier trade, skated in 329 regular-season games for teams that tended to miss the playoffs, like the '90s Oilers and Hartford Whalers.

For a fleeting moment, these guys produced like McDavid on the NHL's big stage. That's a cool claim to fame. - Nick Faris

Rantanen takes charge for Stars

Mikko Rantanen's strange season produced a rewarding moment in Monday's pivotal Game 5.

His first Stars playoff goal stood as the winner in a 6-2 rout that pushed his former team to the edge of elimination. Rantanen skated in a straight line from the defensive zone to the Avalanche crease in the second period and shelved Roope Hintz's pass on an odd-man rush.

Players don't luck into 100-point years. Rantanen had two of those and won a Cup in Colorado, yet his stardom was questioned when he embarked on a winding journey and struggled to mesh with the Hurricanes as a blockbuster rental. He was traded again at the deadline, extended in Dallas through 2033, and rediscovered his scoring touch, but then he settled for one assist through the first four Stars-Avalanche matchups.

Rantanen's 31 shot attempts (18 on net) in the series are a team high. He couldn't have scripted a better time to dent Mackenzie Blackwood's save percentage, which fell from .939 to .909 after Monday. Dallas scored off the opening draw after holding leads for a measly 62 seconds of action through Game 4. Rantanen clapped back at his skeptics with assists to Wyatt Johnston and Hintz that helped foil Colorado's attempted comeback. - Nick Faris

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