7 prospects who could be on the move at the NHL trade deadline
To make additions at the trade deadline, you've gotta give something up.
Last year, we saw notable prospects including Owen Tippett, Justin Barron, and Jack McBain land with new teams. Given the star-studded list of players on the market, we could see even more intriguing young players on the move this season.
From top prospects on contending teams to pending NCAA free agents, here are seven prospects that could be on the move at the deadline.
Alexander Holtz, New Jersey Devils
The Devils hit the accelerator on their rebuild this season, going from the 28th-placed team in 2021-22 to a top-five club in 2022-23.
As a result, no contending team has the prospect capital to utilize at this year's deadline like New Jersey. The Devils boast three top-10 picks at the top of their prospect pool, in addition to numerous other intriguing up-and-comers.
The most likely of those top-10 prospects to be traded is Alexander Holtz.
Holtz is an offensive weapon, thanks in large part to his lethal shot. He tallied an impressive 26 goals and 51 points in 52 games as a rookie in the AHL last year. Since 2007-08, only Jack Quinn has scored at a higher goals-per-game rate among AHLers within two years of being drafted (minimum 20 AHL games played).
Despite his immense success in the AHL, Holtz hasn't translated that immediate scoring prowess to the NHL. He has three goals and four points in 19 contests with New Jersey this season while playing just 10:16 per game. He went over a month as a healthy scratch through January and was returned to the AHL on Feb. 17.
If the Devils want to swing big on a player such as Timo Meier, the 2020 seventh-overall pick is a premium asset that few other teams in the market would be able to match.
Ville Heinola, Winnipeg Jets
Ville Heinola has split time between the NHL and AHL every season since he was drafted 20th overall in 2019.
The yo-yo-ing of a prospect in this manner can not only disrupt their development but can also hurt their perceived value. But Heinola hasn't appeared to be too bothered by this lack of continuity, as he's remained on an upward trajectory with a very strong campaign this year.
The soon-to-be 22-year-old has been phenomenal in the AHL, tallying 24 points in 26 games along with a +22 rating. It's been a lot less flashy in Heinola's 10 NHL contests in 2022-23, though, where he has just one assist and ranks second last among Jets defenders in five-on-five Corsi-for percentage.
After missing the playoffs in 2021-22, Winnipeg is firmly in the hunt for the Central Division title. If the Jets want to make a splash, Heinola is among their most intriguing pieces to a selling team.
Winnipeg also has a surplus of left-shot defensemen. The Jets have Josh Morrissey, Brenden Dillon, Nate Schmidt, Dylan Samberg, and Logan Stanley as left-shot options currently on the roster, and each is signed through at least 2023-24 or is a pending restricted free agent.
Given the lack of opportunity on Winnipeg's defense, a selling team would be smart to target Heinola at this year's deadline.
Jordan Spence, Los Angeles Kings
The Kings have the rare luxury of too many right-shot blue-liners. Drew Doughty, Sean Durzi, Matt Roy, and Sean Walker have all played a regular role for Los Angeles this season.
This unique depth has forced Jordan Spence back to the AHL, despite suiting up in 24 NHL games and three playoff contests last season. The 2019 fourth-rounder succeeded in those NHL minutes, too. He posted a 57.4% Corsi-for last season, good for second among Kings defensemen.
Spence has remained a potent offensive force in the AHL, tallying 36 points in 44 contests this season. Though he's continued to score, his on-ice results have dropped off. After dominating opponents to the tune of 61.8% goals-for at even strength in 2021-22, Spence is only even this season at 50%.
Still, the soon-to-be 22-year-old will certainly be a coveted prospect at the deadline. A right-shot defenseman who can move the puck that also has a sample of success in the NHL is a rare asset to be potentially available, even if he is undersized at 5-foot-10.
Should Spence be traded, he'll very likely finish the season in the NHL with whichever team acquires him.
Sean Behrens, Colorado Avalanche
The defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche spent a lot of assets at last year's deadline. Not only do they have the lowest-ranked prospect pool according to The Athletic's Scott Wheeler, but the Avalanche also don't have picks in rounds 2-4 this year.
With a stacked NHL defense that's locked up long-term, then Colorado general manager Joe Sakic dealt blue-line prospects Justin Barron and Drew Helleson in packages to bring in Artturi Lehkonen and Josh Manson. If Chris McFarland wants to make similar additions this time around, he could look to deal from the backend again.
Sean Behrens captured the national title with the University of Denver as a freshman and played a significant role. He scored 29 points in 37 games to land on the NCHC All-Rookie Team.
The puck-moving blue-liner continues to anchor the Pioneers' top pairing this season with 20 points through 27 contests. He also captured a bronze medal at the World Juniors with Team USA in January.
Behrens is undersized - listed at 5-foot-10 and 176 pounds - but is by far the Avalanche's best defense prospect remaining in the system. There's a strong case to be made he's their top prospect, period. With a lack of secondary draft picks in the 2023 draft, Colorado could be forced to part with Behrens in order to bolster its roster at the deadline.
Ryan Johnson & Erik Portillo, Buffalo Sabres
Jack McBain and Nathan Smith were traded at last year's deadline after informing their respective teams that they didn't plan to sign upon the conclusion of their collegiate careers.
The Buffalo Sabres find themselves with two prospects in similar positions.
Ryan Johnson's in his senior season with the University of Minnesota. The left-shot defenseman has 16 points in 32 games but is more renowned for his defensive game. As a first-round pick, the Sabres will receive a compensatory 2024 second-round pick should Johnson not sign with them this summer.
If a team wants to jump the line and bring him in sooner, they'll have to offer something that appeals to Buffalo general manager Kevyn Adams more than a late 2024 second-round pick. Of course, Johnson could still sign with the Sabres.
Another Sabres prospect to watch is goaltender Erik Portillo. The University of Michigan starter burst onto the scene with a .926 save percentage in 42 appearances in 2021-22. His results have dipped this year - down to a .908 SV% - but Portillo remains quite the intriguing option with his 6-foot-6 frame.
Adams has acknowledged they wanted Portillo to turn pro last summer but were unable to get him signed. As a 22-year-old junior, the Swede can elect free agency this summer should he want to begin his professional career. Unlike Johnson, Buffalo won't get a compensatory pick should Portillo refuse to sign, making him among the most notable pending NCAA free agents to watch at the deadline.
Henry Thrun, Anaheim Ducks
Thrun is the lone NCAA prospect that has officially informed their team that they're electing free agency this summer to this point.
The Anaheim Ducks' fourth-rounder has been stellar each season of his NCAA career with Harvard University. Thrun landed on the ECAC Second All-Star Team last year after tallying 32 points in 35 games.
Thrun's once again been a dominant blue-liner for the Crimson in 2022-23, this time as team captain. The 6-foot-2 left-shot has 25 points through 26 contests.
If Thrun already has a destination in mind (he plays for a school in Massachusetts and was born there), getting an asset for his rights will be tougher.
The Ducks have plenty of prospects on the backend, so losing Thrun isn't as big of a hit to the system as it would be for some other teams. Still, getting a draft pick for the 21-year-old rather than letting him walk for free will be much more preferable for Anaheim general manager Pat Verbeek.
Statistics via Elite Prospects, Natural Stat Trick, Pick 224, AHL Tracker