NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

Christopher Mast / National Hockey League / Getty

The NHL was originally supposed to take two weeks off for the Olympics at the start of February, but the league derailed those plans. Instead of Beijing, the sport's top players will head to Las Vegas during the weekend of February 4-6.

As a result, we've got an extended edition of the weekly moneyline betting guide. The natural break - and the NHL's announcement about pulling back on the COVID-19 testing afterward - can give us a better idea of who's going to be in the lineup each night, and that will be a welcome change in a season that has frustrated bettors looking for roster certainty.

The recipe

Before the campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and how to use that information to create your own moneylines.

Five weeks ago, we shared my 2021-22 campaign ratings, which use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Considering all the lineup inconsistency across the league, I'll continue to rely on a 50-50 split between those ratings and the preseason priors via the regular-season point-total markets. This provides a more consistent base for assessing teams in the future rather than allowing mismatches generated by COVID-19 to pollute the numbers.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the club more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a side on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel.

DATE GAME TRUE ML PRICE TO BET
Jan. 24 VGK@WSH -105/+105 VGK +106/WSH +116
LAK@NYR +139/-139 LAK +164/NYR -133
DAL@PHI -101/+101 DAL +109/PHI +112
ANA@BOS +206/-206 ANA +248/BOS -197
MTL@MIN +166/-166 MTL +198/MIN -159
STL@CGY +144/-144 STL +170/CGY -138
CHI@COL +171/-171 CHI +204/COL -164
Jan. 25 BUF@OTT +143/-143 BUF +169/OTT -137
ARI@PIT +206/-206 ARI +249/PIT -197
DAL@NJD +136/-136 DAL +160/NJD -130
VGK@CAR +122/-122 VGK +143/CAR -117
PHI@NYI +160/-160 PHI +191/NYI -154
FLA@WPG -119/+119 FLA -114/WPG +140
NSH@SEA -101/+101 NSH +109/SEA +112
EDM@VAN -105/+105 EDM +105/VAN +116
Jan. 26 SJS@WSH +140/-140 SJS +165/WSH -134
ANA@TOR +198/-198 ANA +238/TOR -189
CGY@CBJ -116/+116 CGY -112/CBJ +137
CHI@DET +103/-103 CHI +114/DET +107
BOS@COL +127/-127 BOS +149/COL -122
Jan. 27 NJD@TBL +163/-163 NJD +194/TBL -156
NYR@CBJ -107/+107 NYR +103/CBJ +119
CAR@OTT -124/+124 CAR -119/OTT +146
LAK@NYI +125/-125 LAK +148/NYI -120
SEA@PIT +143/-143 SEA +169/PIT -137
VGK@FLA +120/-120 VGK +141/FLA -115
ANA@MTL +143/-143 ANA +169/MTL -137
CGY@STL +133/-133 CGY +157/STL -127
VAN@WPG +122/-122 VAN +144/WPG -117
NSH@EDM +133/-133 NSH +157/EDM -128
Jan. 28 MIN@NYR -134/+134 MIN -129/NYR +158
DET@PIT +183/-183 DET +219/PIT -175
COL@CHI -142/+142 COL -136/CHI +168
BOS@ARI -167/+167 BOS -160/ARI +199
WSH@DAL +102/-102 WSH +113/DAL +108
Jan. 29 ANA@OTT +122/-122 ANA +143/OTT -117
LAK@PHI +108/-108 LAK +119/PHI +102
SEA@NYI +131/-131 SEA +154/NYI -126
WPG@STL +115/-115 WPG +136/STL -111
SJS@FLA +177/-177 SJS +212/FLA -170
TOR@DET -140/+140 TOR -134/DET +165
VGK@TBL +126/-126 VGK +149/TBL -121
NJD@CAR +127/-127 NJD +150/CAR -122
EDM@MTL -145/+145 EDM -139/MTL +172
BUF@ARI +108/-108 BUF +119/ARI +103
VAN@CGY +123/-123 VAN +145/CGY -118
Jan. 30 SEA@NYR +145/-145 SEA +171/NYR -139
LAK@PIT +169/-169 LAK +202/PIT -162
SJS@CAR +134/-134 SJS +158/CAR -129
BOS@DAL +100/+100 BOS +111/DAL +110
CHI@STL +117/-117 CHI +138/STL -112
CBJ@MTL -104/+104 CBJ +107/MTL +114
MIN@NYI -116/+116 MIN -112/NYI +137
BUF@COL +342/-342 BUF +437/COL -323
Jan. 31 FLA@CBJ -184/+184 FLA -176/CBJ +220
ANA@DET +128/-128 ANA +151/DET -123
VAN@CHI +134/-134 VAN +158/CHI -128
EDM@OTT -139/+139 EDM -133/OTT +164
Feb. 1 WSH@PIT +109/-109 WSH +121/PIT +101
WPG@PHI +103/-103 WPG +114/PHI +107
SJS@TBL +188/-188 SJS +225/TBL -179
TOR@NJD -113/+113 TOR -108/NJD +133
SEA@BOS +162/-162 SEA +193/BOS -155
STL@MTL -114/+114 STL -109/MTL +134
FLA@NYR -115/+115 FLA -111/NYR +136
OTT@NYI +182/-182 OTT +217/NYI -174
VAN@NSH +143/-143 VAN +169/NSH -137
CGY@DAL +115/-115 CGY +135/DAL -110
ARI@COL +251/-251 ARI +308/COL -239
BUF@VGK +255/-255 BUF +313/VGK -243
Feb. 2 EDM@WSH -127/+127 EDM -122/WSH +149
LAK@DET -102/+102 LAK +109/DET +112
MIN@CHI -126/+126 MIN -121/CHI +149
CGY@ARI -118/+118 CGY -114/ARI +139

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game
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