NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

Juan Ocampo / National Hockey League / Getty

Back to life. Back to reality.

While the number of star players returning to NHL rosters last week probably wasn't the focus of Soul II Soul's hit song, it should have had hockey fans doing some '90s-style dancing. Meanwhile, I was just happy that I no longer had to make educated guesses about how much Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Hughes, Drew Doughty, and Max Pacioretty mean to any game's win probability.

Of course, it can't all be so simple, as Aleksander Barkov is still listed as out and various day-to-day injuries abound with the Colorado Avalanche, among other teams.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

I've taken the advanced stats I value most from those games, the market rating for regular-season win-total markets, and last season's advanced stats to rate each team. I've also made adjustments for injuries to key players.

With roughly 30% of the season played, here's how I'm weighing those three factors as of Dec. 6:

LAST SEASON MARKET 2021-22
5% 60% 35%

We're pulling away from last season's advanced metrics, for reasons exemplified by a pair of eastern Canadian teams: the Montreal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators. Relying on last season's numbers makes them look better than they really are.

However, the regular-season point total markets painted a different picture, as hope for a step forward for Ottawa wasn't reflected in its 76.5-point projection. Meanwhile, despite the Canadiens' run to the Stanley Cup Final, their missing pieces tempered expectations, which led to an 89.5-point projection. In hindsight, even that looks too high.

Both teams are among the worst in my statistical ratings this season, and the longer that continues, the more my rating is legitimized.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected near a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to be worthwhile wager.

DATE GAME TRUE ML PRICE TO BET
DEC. 6 COL@PHI -160/+160 COL -153/PHI +190
ANA@WSH +168/-168 ANA +200/WSH -161
OTT@NJD +166/-166 OTT +197/NJD -159
ARI@DAL +209/-209 ARI +253/DAL -200
PIT@SEA -105/+105 PIT -101/SEA +124
LAK@VAN +101/-101 LAK +111/VAN +110
DEC. 7 NYI@OTT -103/+103 NYI +107/OTT +114
TB@MTL -113/+113 TB -108/MTL +132
NSH@DET -125/+125 NSH -120/DET +147
CBJ@TOR +219/-219 CBJ +266/TOR -209
ANA@BUF +141/-141 ANA +166/BUF -135
CAR@WPG +112/-112 CAR +132/WPG -108
FLA@STL -120/+120 FLA -115/STL +141
NYR@CHI -116/+116 NYR -112/CHI +137
MIN@EDM +108/-108 MIN +127/EDM -104
CGY@SJS -107/+107 CGY -103/SJS +126
DEC. 8 PHI@NJD +129/-129 PHI +152/NJD -123
COL@NYR -139/+139 COL -133/NYR +164
BOS@VAN -106/+106 BOS -102/VAN +125
DAL@VGK +132/-132 DAL +156/VGK -127
DEC. 9 CHI@MTL +111/-111 CHI +131/MTL -107
ANA@CBJ +110/-110 ANA +129/CBJ -105
TBL@TOR +141/-141 TB +167/TOR -136
NSH@NYI +113/-113 NSH +133/NYI -109
DET@STL +115/-115 DET +135/STL -110
BOS@EDM +110/-110 BOS +129/EDM -106
CAR@CGY +111/-111 CAR +131/CGY -107
WPG@SEA -105/+105 WPG +106/SEA +116
DAL@LAK +127/-127 DAL +150/LAK -122
MIN@SJS -126/+126 MIN -121/SJS +148
DEC. 10 PIT@WSH +113/-113 PIT +133/WSH -108
NYR@BUF -133/+133 NYR -128/BUF +157
NSH@NJD +128/-128 NSH +151/NJD -123
DET@COL +230/-230 DET +280/COL -219
FLA@ARI -160/+160 FLA -154/ARI +191
PHI@VGK +167/-167 PHI +199/VGK -160
WPG@VAN +127/-127 WPG +150/VAN -122
DEC. 11 TBL@OTT -117/+117 TB -112/OTT +138
WSH@BUF -145/+145 WSH -139/BUF +172
MTL@STL +109/-109 MTL +128/STL -105
CHI@TOR +180/-180 CHI +215/TOR -172
ANA@PIT +177/-177 ANA +211/PIT -169
NJD@NYI +150/-150 NJD +177/NYI -144
PHI@ARI -123/+123 PHI -118/ARI +145
CAR@EDM +120/-120 CAR +142/EDM -116
CBJ@SEA +142/-142 CBJ +169/SEA -137
BOS@CGY +102/-102 BOS +113/CGY +109
MIN@LAK -114/+114 MIN -110/LAK +134
DAL@SJS -105/+105 DAL -101/SJS +124
DEC. 12 ANA@STL +130/-130 ANA +154/STL -125
NSH@NYR +129/-129 NSH +153/NYR -124
FLA@COL +131/-131 FLA +155/COL -126
MIN@VGK +110/-110 MIN +130/VGK -106
CAR@VAN +126/-126 CAR +148/VAN -121

This chart is a good reference to determine whether you're truly getting value betting on one side or the other. However, keep in mind that new injuries or lineup issues will naturally arise.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game
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