NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game
Copy rooms were in high demand last week as hockey fans lined up to print the weekly NHL betting value cheat sheet and carry it around in their pocket. Of course, you can always bookmark it on your phone, but hockey fans are an old-school group.
We provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
I've taken the advanced stats I value most from those games, the market rating for regular-season win total markets, and last season's advanced stats to create a rating for each team. (I make adjustments for injuries to key players.)
With roughly 10% of the season played, here's how I'm weighing those three factors as of Nov. 1:
Last season's advanced metrics act as a baseline so we don't overreact to a good start to this year. There's still an undefeated team in the NHL, and it isn't the reigning Stanley Cup champion.
Next, we're going to use the regular-season point-total market to account for what we thought of these teams before the campaign. There's one hiccup, though. The Seattle Kraken were assigned a near league-average point total for fear that setting the bar too low would result in the sportsbooks getting beat the way they did with the Vegas Golden Knights in their first year. As such, we'll take their numbers with a grain of salt, as they've performed 7% below league average.
Lastly, we use the games we've seen so far this season. The Carolina Hurricanes are the aforementioned undefeated club - the market assumed a dip for them this season - but aren't the top team this season based on my numbers. The early leader there is the Florida Panthers.
The cheat sheet
The following is a lookahead to a week's worth of games. It includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet.
|DATE||GAME||TRUE ML||PRICE TO BET|
|NOV. 1||WSH@TB||+113/-113||WSH +133/TB -109|
|OTT@CHI||+131/-131||OTT +154/CHI -125|
|SEA@EDM||+122/-122||SEA +144/EDM -117|
|NOV. 2||DET@MTL||+140/-140||DET +165/MTL -134|
|VGK@TOR||+169/-169||VGK +201/TOR -162|
|AZ@PHI||+177/-177||AZ +211/PHI -169|
|DAL@WPG||-118/+118||DAL -114/WPG +139|
|OTT@MIN||+172/-172||OTT +206/MIN -165|
|NSH@CGY||+104/-104||NSH +122/CGY -113|
|NJD@ANA||-139/+139||NJD -133/ANA +164|
|NYR@VAN||-110/+110||NYR -106/VAN +130|
|BUF@SJ||+161/-161||BUF +192/SJ -155|
|NOV. 3||CAR@CHI||-118/+118||CAR -113/CHI +139|
|NSH@EDM||+130/-130||NSH +153/EDM -125|
|CBJ@COL||+221/-221||CBJ +268/COL -211|
|STL@LAK||+111/-111||STL +130/LAK -107|
|NOV. 4||VGK@OTT||+112/-112||VGK +131/OTT +105|
|TB@TOR||+103/-103||TB +121/TOR +114|
|WSH@FLA||+119/-119||WSH +140/FLA -114|
|PHI@PIT||+134/-134||PHI +158/PIT -129|
|DET@BOS||+186/-186||DET +223/BOS -178|
|NYI@MTL||-108/+108||NYI -103/MTL +126|
|DAL@CGY||+107/-107||DAL +126/CGY -109|
|BUF@SEA||+172/-172||BUF +206/SEA -165|
|STL@SJ||+106/-106||STL +125/SJ +110|
|NOV. 5||CHI@WPG||+106/-106||CHI +125/WPG -102|
|NYR@EDM||+110/-110||NYR +130/EDM -106|
|AZ@ANA||+120/-120||AZ +141/ANA -115|
|NSH@VAN||+106/-106||NSH +110/VAN +125|
|NJD@LAK||+128/-128||NJD +151/LAK -123|
|NOV. 6||TB@OTT||-121/+121||TB -116/OTT +143|
|CAR@FLA||+126/-126||CAR +148/FLA -121|
|BOS@TOR||+125/-125||BOS +147/TOR -120|
|DET@BUF||+112/-112||DET +132/BUF -108|
|PHI@WSH||+125/-125||PHI +148/WSH -120|
|VGK@MTL||+124/-124||VGK +146/MTL -119|
|NYI@WPG||-128/+128||NYI -123/WPG +151|
|COL@CBJ||-180/+180||COL -173/CBJ +216|
|MIN@PIT||-115/+115||MIN -111/PIT +115|
|NYR@CGY||+103/-103||NYR +121/CGY -113|
|SEA@AZ||-135/+135||SEA -130/AZ +159|
|NJD@SJ||-104/+104||NJD -100/SJ +122|
|NOV. 7||VGK@DET||+106/-106||VGK +124/DET +111|
|NSH@CHI||+101/-101||NSH +118/CHI +117|
|STL@ANA||-121/+121||STL -116/ANA +142|
|NYI@MIN||+107/-107||NYI +125/MIN -103|
|DAL@VAN||-106/+106||DAL -102/VAN +125|
We talked about being careful with the Kraken, but there's another team that has the ratings in flux: the Arizona Coyotes. Though they're not as bad this season as the Blackhawks, according to my numbers, there's more hope for Chicago to turn things around based purely on organizational motivation. The Desert Dogs are likely angling for the first overall pick, while the Blackhawks stink by accident.
Many hockey bettors set a parameter for big favorites/underdogs. They don't want to lay a big price on a favorite, nor do they want to suffer the losses that will come if you blindly bet on teams like the Coyotes because the sportsbook gives you a few percentage points of value. Sticking to games priced inside of -200/+300 is certainly a reasonable strategy with the number of games the NHL season provides.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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