Another split on Saturday takes me to 17-8 on this run, but that's just on the picks I write about.
I'm sitting at 66-48 on the season entering the week after going 2-3 over the weekend, resting at +19.55 units.
Let's get above that 20-unit mark again, starting with the following games I'm eyeing for the next two nights. And remember, any added bets will be posted on Twitter for full transparency.
I really had to sweat out my Hurricanes bet on Saturday, with the game between these teams ending in a shootout after Carolina blew a 2-0 lead and almost lost late in regulation. The Panthers, meanwhile, are reviving the Cardiac Cats nickname with their third-period heroics of late, and the results have been well-deserved, according to all the underlying metrics.
After starting the season well, Florida has found another gear while owning 59.6% of the expected goal share at five-on-five over the team's last six games. The club's CF% also sits at 57.5% during that span.
In addition, the Panthers hold the edge in tonight's goaltending matchup, with Chris Driedger getting the nod after Sergei Bobrovsky started in Saturday's loss. Bobrovsky ranks 55th in the NHL in GSAA and 63rd in GSAx, while Driedger enters the contest sitting sixth and 15th in those two categories, respectively.
Pick: Panthers (+100)
We're getting really good value here with a Wild team that the market continues to undervalue. Minnesota has been good this season, and all the underlying numbers support its strong start. At five-on-five, the Wild rank first in the NHL in HDCF% and second in xGF%. They're also ninth in expected goals per 60 minutes while allowing the third-fewest per 60.
The club ranks ahead of the Golden Knights in every significant category, and while I'm not suggesting the Wild are better, they're certainly playing that way right now.
Ride the hot team here, because passing on the Wild at this price is tough given how the squad has been playing over the first six weeks of the season.
Pick: Wild (+125)
The lookahead line for this matchup has the Rangers at -140, a price I'd jump on given the state of the Sabres right now. They're in absolute shambles, with no end in sight. The Sabres aren't getting production from their top players, they're saddled with several terrible contracts, their starting goaltender is out for at least a month, and the team is now dealing with an unhappy and unsettled Jack Eichel.
Eichel's return on Sunday did nothing for Buffalo, which was shut out in back-to-back games over the weekend, and the club hasn't scored a five-on-five goal over its last eight periods. The Sabres rank 28th in expected goal share at five-on-five, which is especially bad considering they sat fourth after the first two weeks of the season. Since then they've been dead last in the NHL with a miserable 41.6% share.
Conversely, the Rangers rank a respectable 11th this campaign, and they continue to play well despite Artemi Panarin's absence. New York holds a significant advantage over the Sabres at five-on-five, as well as in goal, where Igor Shesterkin has posted strong GSAA and GSAx numbers. Carter Hutton, meanwhile, is 1-6 with a sub-.900 save percentage, ranking 47th in GSAA and 46th out of 50 goalies in Goals Above Replacement (via Evolving-Hockey).
Pick: Rangers (-140)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.