Just about everyone has weighed in on 'Deflategate' and whether or not New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady should have been suspended four games. Now, a team from the American Enterprise Institute has conducted an independent study to get to the bottom of the issue.
Kevin A. Hassett and Stan A. Veuger released their findings in a piece for The New York Times on Friday.
Our study, written with our colleague Joseph Sullivan, examines the evidence and methodology of the Wells report and concludes that it is deeply flawed. We found that the Patriots balls declined by about the expected amount, while the Colts balls declined by less. In fact, the pressure of the Colts balls was statistically significantly higher than expected. Contrary to the report, the significant difference between the changes in pressure of the two teams' balls was not because the pressure of the Patriots balls was too low, but because that of the Colts balls was too high.
The group feels the reason for this had to do with when the pressure of the footballs was measured.
How could this be? The report's own findings suggest an explanation: At halftime, NFL officials measured the pressure of "only a sample" of the Colts balls (four out of 12) before they ran out of time; the second half of the game was about to begin. This implies that the Colts balls sat in the warm room where they were to be measured - and thus increased in pressure - for almost the entirety of halftime before being measured. All of the 11 available Patriots balls, by contrast, were measured at halftime, which suggests that they were measured earlier, when they were colder -- and thus lower in pressure. Although this explanation contradicts the Wells report's conclusions, it fits all the evidence.
AEI also did an independent study on "Bountygate" in 2012 and presented their information at an NFL hearing, before suspensions to the players were lifted.
Whether or not this report has an impact during Brady's appeal hearing later this month is anyone's guess, but the NFLPA will likely be bringing it to the attention of Roger Goodell as evidence.