Tom Brady's suspension will have major betting impact, but books won't overreact

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Christian Petersen / Getty Images Sport / Getty

With the news of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady's four-game suspension stemming from the "Deflategate" scandal, oddsmakers and bettors alike are scrambling to figure out a way to attack the news.

Brady will miss the Patriots' home games with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars, and road dates with the Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys. His absence from those contests could impact the lines by as much as a touchdown.

"He means the world to them and he’s the major factor on that team," Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Jason Logan of Covers. "He's worth a full touchdown, depending on who they're playing. If they're like 14-point favorites, he might not be worth that much. But I'd say about a touchdown. He’s as big as they come and definitely near the top."

In the immediate wake of the news, the Patriots dropped from consensus six-point favorites to one-point favorites in their opener against the Steelers.

While Brady's impact on the Patriots' odds in the short term could be fairly significant, books aren't overreacting to his absence in the long term, and aren't going to make significant shifts to their lines.

In anticipation of the suspension, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook lowered the Patriots' season win total from 10.5 to 10.

"We took some money on (under 10.5), and we were definitely aggressive in moving that," SuperBook assistant manager Ed Salmons told Marcus DiNitto of Sporting News early Monday.

The SuperBook kept the Patriots' win total at 10 following the announcement of the suspension, but adjusted its AFC East division odds.

Team Pre-suspension Post-suspension
Patriots -180 -160
Dolphins +350 +350
Bills +450 +450
Jets +900 +700

The Patriots will now have four months to prepare sophomore Jimmy Garoppolo to start the team's first month of games and prove its supporters right.

With that said, it seems likely Brady's suspension will be appealed and reduced. That would give oddsmakers with the foresight not to overreact to Monday's news the upper hand.

The Digest

Everything you need to know about Tom Brady's suspension

by theScore Staff

On May 11, the NFL suspended New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games of the 2015 season for his role in the "Deflategate" scandal involving underinflated footballs discovered during January's AFC Championship game against the Indianapolis Colts.

Need to know

  • The NFLPA filed an appeal of Brady's four-game suspension on his behalf on May 14, criticizing the NFL's "history of inconsistency and arbitrary decisions in disciplinary matters, " and requesting the appeal be heard by a neutral arbitrator.
  • The NFL announced on May 14 that Goodell will preside over Brady's appeal, the commissioner invoking his right to do so as stipulated in the CBA. "My mind is open," Goodell said in a statement on June 2 when he officially informed the NFLPA of his decision to hear the appeal.
  • Along with Brady's suspension, the Patriots were fined $1 million and must forfeit their first-round draft pick in 2016 and fourth-round draft pick in 2017.
  • Goodell spoke to the media on May 20, saying Kraft's decision to accept the NFL's penalties will have no impact on Brady's appeal. "I look forward to hearing from Tom," Goodell said. "If there's new information ... I want to hear directly from Tom on that."
  • The punishment for Brady and the Patriots came five days after the release of the Wells Report. The report declared it was "more probable than not" that Patriots personnel violated league rules by lowering the air pressure in game balls and that Brady was aware of the activities.
  • Ted Wells, author of the Wells Report, defended his findings following the backlash after the Patriots' punishment was revealed. Wells shot back at detractors, saying "I think it’s wrong to question my independence because you don’t like my findings."
  • The Brady suspension has already impacted the gambling world. The Patriots dropped from a six-point favorite in Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers to a one-point favorite, while their odds of winning the AFC East also took a hit.
  • If Brady's four-game suspension is upheld on appeal, his first game back would come Week 6 against - oddly enough - the Colts.

Further Reading

  • theScore's own Arun Srinivasan examines the need for the league to come down hard on both Brady and the Patriots. While the punishment may have been overly harsh, it proves no one, even a four-time champ, is above the rules in the NFL.
  • Following a series of PR nightmares in relation to punishment doled out by the NFL (Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson), USA Today's Chris Chase argues the league finally got it right with Brady and the Patriots. [USA Today - For The Win]
  • On the other hand, Yahoo Sports' Frank Schwab makes the case that the NFL royally screwed up, presenting five reasons - including the lack of evidence against Brady - the decision was "dead wrong." [Yahoo Sports]
  • The MMQB's Peter King points out that the league wanted to show it doesn't play favorites by severely penalizing the Patriots. He also considers the impact of the situation on Brady's legacy. [The MMQB]
  • Sports Illustrated's Greg A. Bedard makes the case for Patriots' owner Robert Kraft leading the charge to replace Roger Goodell as commissioner. “I really don’t see how Robert is going to get past this with Roger,” a Patriots source told Bedard. [Sports Illustrated]

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