NFL Divisional Round Weekend Betting Preview

The first weekend of the NFL playoffs is in the books.

As mentioned in last week's preview, with only four games on the card, it's harder to find the same type of advantages that are available throughout the regular season. Nevertheless, there are a couple of good betting opportunities that present themselves this weekend. I went 2-2 ATS last weekend, although the recommended wagers went 2-1 overall.

As always, I've linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page, which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats and other items of note for each game.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

Consensus Line: Patriots -7 +100, total of 47.5

Public Betting Action (courtesy of SportsInsights): 53% on the Ravens, 60% on the over

Styles make fights. There's no question the Patriots are a better overall team than the Ravens, but Baltimore seems to give New England trouble, particularly due to their ability to shut down the running game. The Ravens finished with the NFL's third best run defense, surrendering just 3.6 yards per carry, even with Haloti Ngata suspended for the final four games of the season.

The Patriots pride themselves on having a balanced attack. When New England was seemingly blowing out every opponent in the middle of the season, they were doing it with a total offensive effort. That could pose an issue for the Patriots this weekend. New England lost four games this season, and were unable to build up a margin in three of their victories. Here's how their running game fared in each contest, minus the relatively meaningless Week 17 contest against the Bills.

The Patriots averaged 107.9 rushing yards per game this season, but were held to just 78.7 rushing yards in close games and losses. If the Ravens' run defense can hold up again, the Patriots will be forced to become one-dimensional, and that's been a major issue for them this season.

As a numbers guy, I hate talking about momentum, but recent trends have shown that it could play a factor in the divisional round. Eleven of the last 14 underdog winners in the wild-card round have gone on to cover the spread in their next game. The bye week hasn't been kind to the #1 seed either, as they've gone 1-7 ATS in the divisional round over the past four seasons. Granted, these are extremely small sample sizes and aren't worth a whole lot, but recent history suggests teams riding momentum into the divisional round are solid wagers.

Finally, I have to touch on #RoadFlacco vs. #PlayoffFlacco. I outlined Joe Flacco's struggles on the road in last week's preview, but for some reason or another, once the playoffs hit, #RoadFlacco disappears. After last week's victory, Flacco is now 10-4 in his playoff career, throwing for 21 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. Not outstanding numbers, but Flacco does so many other little things that contribute to winning. Whether it's picking up a first down with his feet when nothing is available downfield, or throwing the ball to draw a pass interference penalty, Flacco always seems to give his team a chance in the postseason.

The Pick: This is a really tough call. It seems as though the Patriots may have peaked a bit too early this season, but I can't find it within myself to pick against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady with an extra week to prepare. Patriots 23, Ravens 20

The Play: Give me the points. I don't blame oddsmakers for hanging this line because a large portion of the public will blindly bet the Patriots at home any chance they get, but I believe it's a few points too many. Baltimore is a live underdog. Ravens +7 (My cutoff would be Ravens +6. Anything short of that and it's a pass).

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks

Consensus Line: Seahawks -10.5 -115, total of 39.5

Public Betting Action (courtesy of SportsInsights): 59% on the Seahawks, 56% on the under

The Panthers have played well against the Seahawks over the past few seasons with the teams having met in three consecutive years. The Seahawks have emerged victorious in each, but all the games were fairly close, as evidenced below.

The issue for Carolina is that all three losses came on home field. The Panthers now have to travel to Seattle to face the team with arguably the biggest home field advantage in the league. The Seahawks are 26-3 straight up in their last 29 home games, covering the spread in 22 of those 29 games (75.8%). Seattle's home field advantage is worth more than the standard three points, with some models giving up to six points to the Seahawks in primetime home contests.

To make matters worse for the Panthers, the Seahawks' defense has most certainly found the form that led them to a Super Bowl victory a season ago. Seattle hasn't allowed more than 20 points since Week 11. Since then, they've surrendered 3, 3, 14, 7, 6, and 6 points. Granted, their opponents were cream puffs, but holding five of six opponents to single-digit points is downright insane. Despite topping 24 points just once in those six contests, Seattle's average margin of victory was 15.8 points.

The Panthers enter this game having won five straight, but Carolina's strength of schedule down the stretch raises many question marks. Three of the Panthers' last five games have come against Josh McCown, Brian Hoyer (with a Johnny Manziel cameo) and Ryan Lindley. It's hard to be impressed with those victories, especially since the Panthers only won by a combined 17 points.

If that's not bad enough, the Panthers suffered a major blow when defensive tackle Star Lotuleilei was put on injured reserve this week. It's no secret that the Seahawks love to run the ball, and it'll be a lot easier for Marshawn Lynch to find gaps without Lotuleilei across from him. The Seahawks get center Max Unger back from injury this week, so it's a double whammy of sorts. The Seahawks lead the league in rushing by a country mile (5.3 yards per carry), while the Panthers had the fourth worst run defense in the league (4.5 yards per carry). You do the math.

If there's one thing favoring the Panthers this week (at least in terms of covering the spread), it's a strong betting angle. Betting against #1 or #2 seeds in the playoffs when they're receiving 51%+ of the action is 24-8 ATS (75%) [+46.1% ROI] since 2004 (via BetLabs). Again, this is a relatively small sample size, as most playoff trends are, but it's something worth noting.

The Pick: The Seahawks' offense is capable of laying an egg in any given week, but their defense is just too good for Carolina to handle, as the last three games between the two teams suggest. I just don't see the Panthers scoring enough points to make this a game. Seahawks 16, Panthers 6

The Play: ​I liked the Panthers quite a bit when this line was first posted, but my enthusiasm has waned as the week progressed. Instead, I'll look to play the total in this one. I don't see Carolina scoring into double-digits, which makes this an absolute no-brainer for me. If the Seahawks put up 30+, so be it, but I'll take my chances. Under 40 (Play this one at a square book like Sportsbook.com or Bovada/BoDog, where you can get a slightly better number)

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

Consensus Line: Packers -5.5, total of 52.5

Public Betting Action (courtesy of SportsInsights): 56% on the Packers, 58% on the over

When this game is over, a perfect streak will have been broken. The Packers put their 8-0 home record on the line against the Cowboys' 8-0 away record.

What's especially intriguing about this matchup is that both teams' offensive strengths are their opponents defensive weaknesses. The Packers have a stellar aerial attack as they finished second in the league in yards per passing attempt (8.3), and Aaron Rodgers' 38-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season is nothing short of unbelievable. The Cowboys are awful against the pass, surrendering 7.5 yards per attempt. They're one of only six teams that gave up 14 or more passes of 40+ yards this season, which doesn't bode well against a Packers' offense that isn't afraid to take a deep shot. If that's not bad enough, the Cowboys were fifth-last in the league in sacks this season, with 28. Green Bay should conceivably move the ball through the air with ease.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, their offense should have similar success. Dallas had the third-best running game in the league with 4.6 yards per carry, and their offensive line should have their way with the Packers' defensive front. The Packers surrender 4.3 yards per carry, while allowing nearly 120 rushing yards per game. Green Bay could choose to sell out to stop the run, but their cornerbacks don't stand much of a chance playing one-on-one against Dallas' group of wideouts and tight ends. If the Packers choose to stack the box, Dez Bryant could have a career day, especially since Dom Capers refuses to make any in-game adjustments. The Cowboys' passing game actually topped the Packers' passing game in terms of yards per attempt this season.

Although both offenses should seemingly find major success, Rodgers' calf injury is a major concern. He has a slight tear and a strain in his calf, and was limited in practice on Thursday. There's really no way to know how much the injury will hamper Rodgers on Sunday, but it could affect his mobility and effectiveness.

The Pick: I've made it known I'm a Cowboys' fan. With that being said, I can be impartial. Dallas can give Green Bay a fight, but I just don't know how they slow down Rodgers unless he's one step away from being crippled. With some major injury concerns in Dallas' linebacking corps, I have to pick with my head over my heart. Packers 35, Cowboys 31

The Play: ​Last week, I went with a major square play (Colts ATS) and it worked out. I'll come back with another Square Special this weekend. This game is going over the total. Even if Dallas tries to run the ball to keep Rodgers off the field, the Packers' offense will connect on some big strikes when they get their chances. The Packers average nearly 40 points per game at home this season (!) and this is one of the worst defenses they'll see all year. Over 52 (Pinnacle)

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos

Consensus Line: Broncos -7 -105, total of 54

Public Betting Action (courtesy of SportsInsights): 59% on the Broncos, 71% on the over

There are a ton of question marks surrounding Peyton Manning entering this contest. Manning's last four games in the regular season left much to be desired as the future Hall of Famer threw for just three touchdowns while turning the ball over seven times. There's speculation that Manning is injured in some way, and whether or not that's the case, there's no denying his arm strength is completely sapped. Luckily for the Broncos, early weather reports in Denver are calling for no wind. Manning has struggled to move the ball through the air in bad conditions, but that shouldn't be much of an issue this weekend.

What may be an issue though is Indianapolis' 3-4 defense. For whatever reason, Manning has struggled against 3-4 defenses in his postseason career, winning just three of 10 matchups. The Colts' transition to the 3-4 has had decent returns this season as well. When Robert Mathis was lost to injured reserve early in the season, many people questioned how the Colts could possibly get after the quarterback, but they finished tied for ninth with 41 sacks. The Colts improved in many other defensive aspects as well, including forcing turnovers and getting off of the field on third down. If there's something to Manning struggling against 3-4 defenses (again, small sample size), then the Colts may be able to wreak some havoc.

It's still hard to take the Colts seriously though. They've come up short in almost every big game this season. The Colts' five losses came against the Broncos, Eagles, Steelers, Patriots and Cowboys, all of whom finished with winning records. The last three losses weren't even close (51-34, 42-20, 42-7). Indianapolis is great at beating up on terrible opponents, but there's no denying they have issues with quality teams.

These two teams met back in Week 1. Last week, I pointed out that I'm a non-believer in revenge spots, and took the Colts to beat the Bengals, despite the fact that the Bengals were in a revenge situation after being steamrolled by Indianapolis in the regular season. I'm not going to be a hypocrite this week. Denver handled the Colts relatively easily for three quarters in Week 1, before taking their foot off the gas. In typical Indianapolis fashion, Andrew Luck mounted a fourth quarter comeback, but that game looked like men against boys for a long time. Obviously, a lot has changed since Week 1, but I believe that result is more likely to be duplicated.

The Pick: There's no question Denver seems to be the most vulnerable of the #1 or #2 seeds this weekend. The Broncos didn't look good down the stretch but I'm simply not a believer in the Colts. Broncos 31, Colts 20

The Play: There's just nothing appealing about this game from a betting perspective. The total seems a little too high, but forgive me for not taking a shot with the under in a game involving Manning and Luck. Pass