Why Marshawn Lynch deserves a raise, but he won't get it

Marshawn Lynch is a complex guy.

This is a man who doesn’t take kindly to anyone with a camera or notepad, famously ducking the media during the Super Bowl. But when he does speak, he offers a unique perspective on life. Like when he looked back, um, warmly on his arrival in Buffalo (“there was like SLUSH, on the GROUND”), or when he described the daily events in his dog’s life (“he’s just a doggie dog, living in his doggie dog world, you feel me?”).

When he skips the Seattle Seahawks mandatory minicamp next week -- which is a near certainty, according to a report from ESPN’s Terry Blount -- it’s hard to make a definitive statement about his intentions, because he’s the sort of weird character who throws skittles at an adoring crowd and demands Fireball whiskey. He’s a little unpredictable.

Blount’s sources said Lynch missed the Seahawks’ voluntary sessions and intends to also be away for the mandatory workouts to protest his current contract, one the running back believes he’s outplayed.

If that indeed is his true motivation, he’s not wrong.

Why Marshawn Lynch deserves more money

Lynch signed a four-year contract in 2012 worth $31 million, $17 million of which was guaranteed. It’s a deal now unfathomable for a running back, sadness we’ll dig into below. Of that cash mountain, he’s scheduled to be given $5 million in 2014.

At the time of that agreement Lynch had re-established himself after falling out of favor in Buffalo, boosting the price tag for his services with a 2011 season when he ran for 1,204 yards at a pace of 80.3 per game. Two seasons later, Lynch is an even better running back.

If Adrian Peterson didn’t pump his bionic legs so much in 2012, we would have talked about Lynch much more. He rushed for 1,590 yards -- still a career high -- and he did it at a pace of five yards per carry, with nine runs for 20 yards or more. Toss in his receiving yardage, and we get a season with 1,786 total yards.

Then during this past season that finished with a championship in Seattle, Lynch had his second straight year with over 1,500 yards from scrimmage (1,573), and a career single-season high in total touchdowns (14).

Including their three-game playoff run that culminated in confetti, the Seahawks played 19 games during the 2013 season. In 10 of them Lynch had over 100 total yards, and in five he high-stepped and pinballed to over 130 yards. It was a year highlighted by two +30 yard runs during the playoffs, and 140 yards posted on the Saints.

Lynch scored 39 times over the past three seasons, more any other player at any position during that time.

If that’s not enough in Lynch’s quest for more dollars, he accounted for 29 percent of the Seahawks’ offensive production in 2013, an offense that leaned on him heavily. Lynch was given the ball on a handoff 301 times, and overall Seattle finished second in rush attempts with 509.

Those high-volume touches are a problem though, among other things.

Why Marshawn Lynch isn’t getting more money

Despite those glowing numbers, when you look for Lynch’s leverage, you find none.

Lynch’s current salary makes him the league’s fifth highest paid running back for 2014. At first that sounds swell, but then you see he’s behind Arian Foster ($5.75 million in 2014), the brittle mess who appeared in only eight games last year. He’s also well behind Matt Forte ($5.95 million), who’s the same age as Lynch. Forte has averaged 1,577 total yards per season over the past three years, while Lynch has clipped along at 1,591.

If there was any fairness in football economics, Lynch would get closer to Forte’s tax bracket. But fair carries little meaning here.

No, we deal in bruised bones and deteriorating bodies. The reality of swift running back decline -- or at least the potential of it -- is discussed often during the offseason, and not even Adrian Peterson is free from those fears.

Lynch is 28 years old, and over his past three wildly productive seasons he’s averaged 329 touches per year. Overall throughout his career he’s logged 1,955 touches, meaning his odometer will cruise past the ever dangerous 2,000 plateau early next season. As noted in a study by Ryan Boser, 2,200 touches is typically the productivity cliff for running backs. Even if the Seahawks let up on Lynch’s gas pedal by working in Christine Michael more often this year, that edge still looms.

Mileage is strike one on Lynch, and Michael himself is the second whiff. In this age of constant backfield churn, there’s always a shinier model waiting who’s only just been removed from his running back box. Anticipating Lynch’s eventual decay, the Seahawks used a second-round pick on Michael in 2013, which now qualifies as a substantial draft investment at the position.

But here’s the third strike, a knuckler: running backs are currently paid in Oreos.

A year ago Reggie Bush signed a contract that averaged just $4 million over four years. More importantly, only $4 million was guaranteed .

Chris Johnson led the 2014 running back market with a two-year deal also averaging $4 million, but his guarantee was only $3 million. Before Johnson was cut by the Titans, Ben Tate was the hottest running back commodity. He received a meager $6.2 million over two years.

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If we’re looking just at his production compared to his peers, Lynch is justified in seeking a raise. But NFL general managers don’t live in that vacuum. Neither can we, and neither can Lynch.

His age, the abuse he’s faced, and the presence of fresh legs on the depth chart behind will all lead to Lynch getting cut long before he’s given more money.