Super Bowl betting: Which popular trends are worth buying, selling?

Sifting through the various markets and picking a side for the Super Bowl can create a tense week for avid bettors ahead of Sunday's game. This is the time of year when trends are thrown in your face, inviting you to choose one team over the other.

We've combed through some of those trends, and we'll explain which to buy and which to sell in order to give you a better sense of who and what to bet on leading up to kickoff.

👉 Check out all of the Super Bowl markets available on theScore Bet here

Trend: The outright winner is 49-7-3 against the spread (83%) in Super Bowl history

🧑‍⚖️ Verdict: Sell

In the most recent Super Bowls, this has been a trend worth subscribing to. However, that's a result of six of the last seven Super Bowls having a spread of three or fewer points. A team isn't likely to cover a one- or two-point spread without winning. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are favored by 4.5 points in a game with an unusually low total.

This contest, which features two elite defenses and questions about both quarterbacks, could easily come down to a field goal.

Trend: Underdogs are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 Super Bowls

🧑‍⚖️ Verdict: Buy

While you shouldn't blindly bet on the Patriots because of this trend, it does show that the big game is often poorly priced and, for reasons we explain here, not a good indicator of who will win. The Super Bowl creates a level playing field. No team should be significantly favored over another.

Trend: Since 2000, favorites of 4.5 points are 1-10 ATS in the Super Bowl

🧑‍⚖️ Verdict: Buy

This trend represents why we don't recommend betting on a spread based on who you think will win outright. Underdogs have reigned supreme of late, and 4.5 points is too many to bet solely because you think the Seahawks win. As indicated, 4.5-point favorites don't typically cover in this spot. Would it surprise anyone if Seattle wins by three?

Trend: The team wearing white has won 15 of the past 20 Super Bowls

🧑‍⚖️ Verdict: Sell

This is a fun but purely random trend that doesn't lend an advantage. Unless putting on a white jersey leads to newfound athleticism, strength, and talent that I'm not aware of, please don't place a bet based on social media accounts running with this irrelevant trend.

Trend: Teams that played on Wild Card Weekend are 14-1-1 ATS in the past 16 Super Bowls in which they've faced teams that had a first-round bye

🧑‍⚖️ Verdict: Buy

There has to be something to this. Each team has plenty of rest after two weeks off, but the squad that starts its postseason run during the wild-card round likely carries extra momentum into the Super Bowl, with three playoff games under its belt instead of two. The more experience, the better.

Trend: Across the past 15 Super Bowls in which one team had a better record than the other, the team with the better record is 2-13 straight up

🧑‍⚖️ Verdict: Sell

While this is pretty wild, it doesn't mean much when projecting the outcome of this weekend's game. All this tells us is that records are irrelevant in the final game, especially considering home-field advantage isn't a factor. I wouldn't place a bet solely because one team has a worse record.

Trend: Teams that win the turnover battle are 39-7 straight up

🧑‍⚖️ Verdict: Buy

Football coaches at all levels preach the importance of winning the turnover battle. Protecting the football is a sacred pillar to emerging victorious, and that's no different on the biggest stage. The Seahawks and Patriots are elite at capitalizing on mistakes. Whoever makes more of them will almost surely end the night disappointed.

While this trend is important, who does it really favor in Sunday's matchup? Sam Darnold threw 14 interceptions during the regular season, third most in the league. And while Drake Maye didn't commit as many errors in the regular season, he's thrown two picks and fumbled six times (losing three) in three playoff games. Seattle and New England averaged nearly the same number of takeaways per contest, ranking around the top of the league. This really comes down to which quarterback you trust more.

Trend: Wide receivers have scored the first touchdown in 25 Super Bowls (42% of them)

🧑‍⚖️ Verdict: Buy

Wide receivers have scored the first touchdown more than any other position; running backs have accounted for 17, quarterbacks for six, tight ends and defense/special teams for five each, and fullbacks for two.

It's easy to understand why: There are more wide receivers on the field than any other skill position. This trend can help you find value in a first touchdown scorer Sunday. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the best odds among all wide receivers and the second-best odds overall at +550 on theScore Bet. Stefon Diggs holds the best odds among Patriots wideouts and is tied for the sixth-best odds overall at +1500.

Trend: The coin toss has landed on tails in 31 of the 59 Super Bowls

🧑‍⚖️ Verdict: Sell

Maybe there's something to "tails never fails." We're only joking, of course. Everyone's favorite non-football prop bet is a complete 50-50 proposition, even if tails has landed face up more often than not. But that's not how probability works. If you're going to bet on the coin toss, you might as well flip a coin to make your decision rather than following this trend.

US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

ON: Please play responsibly. 19+. ON only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call ConnexOntario 24/7 at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca.