Key takeaways and analysis from the divisional round
Playoff Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.
Nix delivers before heartbreak
If you had told me heading into this game that the Broncos would be putting the ball almost exclusively in the hands of Bo Nix, I would have guessed that the AFC's No. 1 seed was going to be one-and-done. This passing attack had been far too inconsistent to trust in a big spot, and it was just last week that the Jaguars showed the world the consequences of not exposing a porous Bills run defense. That evidently wasn't Sean Payton's takeaway from the wild-card matchup, as his running backs saw just 10 carries in Saturday's divisional-round opener.
Fortunately for the Broncos, they didn't have to pay the same price as Jacksonville. That's because Nix stepped up pretty much whenever they needed him to make a play. On the first touchdown drive, it was a bullet up the seam to Marvin Mims. Then came the 29-yard touchdown to Lil'Jordan Humphrey with 22 seconds left before halftime. He also made two massive throws on a go-ahead touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter - a 25-yard strike to Courtland Sutton on a critical third-and-11, and a dime to Mims for the score four plays later.
It was the kind of performance that, for all his inconsistencies, created a feeling that the Broncos might just have everything they need to win a Super Bowl. And then came the stunning post-game announcement from Payton: Nix will miss the rest of the playoffs after suffering a broken bone in his ankle on the second-last offensive play of the game. That leaves Denver turning to Jarrett Stidham for the fifth start of his seven-year career with the AFC title on the line next week.
Perhaps Payton can find a run game and scheme things up well enough for his relatively inexperienced backup to keep the offense afloat. Assuming the Broncos get a bounce-back performance from the defense, they may not need much. But it's exceedingly difficult to shake the feeling that getting two more wins has suddenly become an impossible task.
More devastation for Bills
There's going to be a lot of talk about the controversial play in overtime, where the Broncos were awarded an interception on a deep ball to Brandin Cooks. Personally, I think officials made the right call. Freeze frames will make it look like Cooks was down with possession before having it ripped away by Ja'Quan McMillian, but the rules state that the receiver also needs to survive the ground to complete a catch. The more egregious call, to me, was the 17-yard pass interference that put the Broncos in field-goal range four plays later. But the Bills were going to be penalized 15 yards anyway, as Joey Bosa was also flagged for roughing the passer. And for the record, there should be no debate about the second pass interference call on Tre'Davious White that put Denver inside the 10-yard line. They don't get much more obvious than that.
Buffalo's uncharacteristic mistakes are what actually decided this game. James Cook's early fumble spoiled an opportunity for the Bills to take a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter. After back-to-back Broncos touchdown drives, Denver was gifted another three points when Allen coughed up the ball on a reckless play before half. Allen's second lost fumble gave the Broncos another field goal immediately after the break, and his poor decision on a deep interception trailing 23-17 wasted the opportunity Bo Nix provided by throwing a horrific pick two plays prior. Allen is the best quarterback on the planet right now - he's the reason this deeply flawed Bills still had a chance to chase down that elusive first Super Bowl. But with Buffalo having such glaring issues on defense and at receiver, it seemed possible, if not likely, that any such run was going to require him to string together four consecutive superhuman performances. That was always an unrealistic ask.
Joe Brady makes his case
The Bills giving this game away with some costly turnovers becomes an even more difficult pill to swallow when you consider what they were otherwise doing to the vaunted Denver defense for the better part of the day. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady had his unit marching up and down the field despite a relatively underwhelming game from his star quarterback, posting a 58.3% rush success rate and a 51.3% figure for the unit as a whole, according to TruMedia. Both are the second-best marks posted against the Broncos this season.
Brady hasn't been generating much buzz in this year's head coaching cycles, receiving just three known interview requests ahead of this week's game. Don't be surprised if he has a few more waiting for him first thing Sunday morning. Because while some will be wary about what his offense might look like without a unicorn quarterback, there aren't many play-callers who could so consistently have the Broncos' defense on its heels. Brady has a unique ability to scheme up space for playmakers, and his creativity was on full display with the hook and ladder call that helped the Bills get in range for a game-tying field goal to force overtime. It's probably only a matter of time before an organization looking to set a young quarterback up for success gives him a chance to lead a team of his own.
Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.