SNF bets: Can Nix lead Broncos to 10th win vs. Commanders?
The Commanders host the Broncos to cap Sunday's slate of games in a matchup that looked far more appealing before the season started. Marcus Mariota gets the nod again for the injured Jayden Daniels, while Bo Nix and the 9-2 Broncos will look to continue to extend their AFC West lead.
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🏈 Pick: Broncos (-5.5)
Nothing could sway me into backing the Commanders. With a 3-8 record and Daniels still on the sideline, their season is over. Add injuries to an already bad defense and there's nothing working in their favor.
The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league and could easily hold Washington to single-digit points. Nix hasn't been stellar this season, but he continues to find ways to win games and score points when required. The only way the Commanders cover is if they can cause chaos in the Broncos' backfield, but they haven't been able to generate much pressure all season, and I don't see them starting now against a really good Denver offensive line.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg is our "Anytime TD Guy," providing touchdown scorer props all season long.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+110)
Washington boasts one of the worst run defenses in the league, ranking 25th in EPA/rush and 27th in rushing yards allowed. Harvey, who is now Denver's top running back with J.K. Dobbins sidelined, is primed for a breakout game on Sunday night.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+185)
With Denver's defense allowing a league-best two touchdowns to wideouts this season, we'll keep it chalk in this game and go with two running backs. Rodriguez leads Washington in red-zone carries and has more rushing attempts than Jacory Croskey-Merritt over the last three contests.
🏈 Bet: Longest reception over 18.5 yards
The Commanders' secondary frequently gives up big plays. Franklin has surpassed 18.5 yards with his longest reception five times this season and has also landed on exactly 18 yards twice. I expect him to clear this number with ease.
🏈 Bet: Over 23.5 receiving yards
Bryant has operated as the Broncos' third wide receiver in recent games, ahead of Marvin Mims Jr., and is producing as a result. He's gone for 40 or more yards in three of his past four outings while emerging as the Broncos' big-play threat. He could easily clear this total with one catch, but he could also do it thanks to his uptick in volume: He received six targets last week and has two or more targets in six straight games.
🏈 Bet: Over 4.5 receptions
Samuel's built a rapport with Mariota this season. He surpassed this total in two of his last three games and six of 10 for the year. Terry McLaurin is back in the lineup, but that shouldn't take away much of Samuel's volume, as he mostly operates in short-yardage areas around the line of scrimmage.
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