SNF bets: Picks, touchdown scorers for NFC clash between Rams, Bucs
The Rams welcome the Buccaneers to SoFi Stadium to close Week 12's Sunday slate. Both teams lead their respective divisions and should be playing meaningful football in January. While it's not a divisional game, this meeting will affect the NFC playoff picture.
Let's get to our pick against the spread, touchdown scorers, and player props for Sunday Night Football.
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π Pick: Rams (-6.5)
After winning a handful of close games early in the season, it seems as though injuries have finally caught up to the Buccaneers. They've lost three of their past four games, and the only team they beat over that span was the Saints in Week 8. Tampa Bay recently lost 24-9 to the Lions and 44-32 to the Bills, both on the road.
The Rams are in the same tier as the Bills and Lions and should be able to cover by a touchdown at home in prime time. Matthew Stafford is the MVP front-runner, and his elite receiver duo of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams should feast on the Buccaneers' secondary. Tampa gives up the sixth-most passing yards per game (241.6) while Los Angeles throws for the sixth most at 246.9 yards per game.
The Rams have the better offense and better defense, they're much healthier, and they're at home. There's a lot working in the Rams' favor to make us feel comfortable laying nearly a touchdown against a solid NFC opponent.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+160)
Los Angeles' defense has been one of the best stories of the year, but its weak spot is the outside. The Rams rank in the bottom 10 in targets, receptions, and receiving yards allowed to wide receivers. Egbuka's six scores lead all Buccaneers offensive players, and you get good value at +160 here.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+425)
Let's go with a long shot on the Rams' side and roll with a tight end who's scored a touchdown in back-to-back games. Parkinson's seven red-zone targets rank second on L.A. since Oct. 1, and he took 15 more snaps than any other tight end on the team last week. With Tyler Higbee sidelined, Parkinson has been a key contributor on Sean McVay's offense.
π Bet: Over 2.5 passing touchdowns
Stafford has thrown for three or more touchdowns in five of 10 games this year, a 50% clip, while the odds for this bet suggest a 39.2% implied probability. The Bucs can be difficult to run on, so I'd expect a pass-heavy game plan that will help pad Stafford's NFL lead for most passing touchdowns.
π Bet: Over 7.5 receptions
Nacua caught eight or more passes in five straight games to open the season but hasn't reached that mark since Week 6. However, he missed two games due to an injury, and he caught seven passes in two of his three games since returning. At plus money, this is too much value to overlook.
π Bet: Over 49.5 rushing yards
Sean Tucker continues to take on a larger role in the Bucs' backfield while Bucky Irving remains sidelined and Rachaad White struggles with efficiency. Tucker ran for 106 yards last week against the Bills and 53 yards on nine carries against the Patriots two games ago. He should be in line to lead Tampa Bay in rushing attempts, and 50 yards isn't much to ask for.
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