Coaching carousel check-in: Evaluating all 7 new hires after 1st month

Four weeks of regular-season action isn't nearly enough to draw sweeping conclusions about the fate of a new staff, but it's plenty for an early temperature check.

What are the initial impressions for each of the seven head coaches hired this offseason? And more importantly, what do they mean for the future?

Evaluating Johnson's early days in Chicago largely depends on expectations. If you were hoping that he'd immediately turn the Bears offense into the second coming of the powerhouse Lions, you're probably a little underwhelmed right now. That's certainly the long-term goal, and he may well get there in relatively short order, but that was never a realistic ask right out of the gate. This is a process, regardless of the fanfare that accompanied the splashy offseason hire.

The good news is that there are already several indications that the Bears are heading in the right direction. Johnson's offensive system is a monumental upgrade over whatever it was Shane Waldron was trying to accomplish last year. It's easy to see that the answers Johnson provides in the pass game, along with the focus on fundamentals throughout the offseason, have Caleb Williams looking more comfortable than he did at any point as a rookie. For the former No. 1 pick, consistently leveraging his rare arm talent in rhythm from the pocket and improvising only when necessary creates a clear path for him to become the player we all expected him to be.

Johnson still needs a capable running back (or two) to unlock the full potential of this offense. If Chicago's in a position to push for a playoff spot by the end of October, that'll be a move worth making at the deadline. Either way, it's probably just a matter of time before the whole thing comes together.

While Bears fans may be disappointed in the returns on Johnson's biggest hire, I'd suggest staying patient with Dennis Allen's defense. The veteran coordinator doesn't have much to work with on that side of the ball. The overall numbers reflect that. But the fact that the club's defense leads the league in third-down EPA/play by a wide margin, according to TruMedia, should be considered a glimpse of this system's upside down the road. Allen built one of the NFL's most consistent defenses after a slow start in New Orleans, and that's firmly on the table here, too.

Though it produced an up-and-down 2-2 start, Chicago's early signs are incredibly promising across the board. Give it another year or so, all while continuing the aggressive approach to building out the roster, and Johnson should have the Bears right in the mix in the NFL's toughest division. This may be the rare hotshot coaching hire that lives up to the hype.

The Vrabel era in New England didn't get off to the most encouraging of starts, as a particularly cowardly fourth-down decision was the nail in the coffin for a Week 1 home loss to the Raiders. But who says an old dog can't learn new tricks?

Seemingly aware of his error, the second-time head coach opened things up a bit in the weeks that followed. The Patriots attempted seven fourth-down conversions over the next three games, converting all but one. Assuming Vrabel is indeed in the process of modernizing his game management, the excitement surrounding his return to New England could prove warranted. All the other qualities are there in spades.

It hasn't taken long to see the fruits of his reputation for program building and getting the most out of his players. The Patriots' roster still had some glaring holes after a busy offseason, but this group is improving every time it takes the field. Last week's win over the Panthers was one of the most lopsided games of the season, and New England would be 3-1 if it weren't for a ridiculous amount of fumbles against the Steelers the week prior.

Crucially, it seems like Vrabel's move to hire Josh McDaniels was a stroke of genius. The veteran offensive coordinator, back for a third stint in New England, has helped Drake Maye take the next step in his development. The second-year quarterback is completing 74% of his passes and is tied for fourth in EPA/dropback. Considering McDaniels will likely never get another head-coaching job, Vrabel might give this up-and-coming team the kind of long-term staff continuity most organizations only dream of. That could go a long way toward helping Maye become one of the best quarterbacks in football, opening another extended competitive window for the Patriots in the process.

Carroll made it clear upon taking over the Raiders that he wasn't here to lead a methodical rebuild. He wanted to win right now, because that's what he's always done. Four games in, it's pretty clear that won't be happening this year.

The veteran head coach's biggest and most important personnel move, reuniting with Geno Smith, has been a spectacular flop over the first month. While the surprise trade was logical for a team coming off a year split between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell, Smith doesn't look anything like the player he was in Seattle. The once-elite accuracy has somehow faded out of nowhere, and his early knack for throwing back-breaking interceptions is killing the offense.

Carroll's No. 1 staff hire, making Chip Kelly the highest-paid offensive coordinator in the league, also hasn't yielded the expected results. The scheme is doing little to elevate a mediocre offensive line, and the result has been some comically bad breakdowns in both pass protection and the run game. Carroll's defensive background appears to be having a positive impact on the other side of the ball (T13th in EPA/play, 17th in success rate), but it's not nearly enough to overcome the offense wasting its wealth of skill-position talent.

Getting the Raiders back to a competitive level will be a process. After everything this organization has gone through over the last two-plus decades, Carroll's well-established ability to build a culture could go a long way to make that happen. Still, at 74 years old, it's fair to wonder if he's going to coach long enough to see it through. If not, will the Raiders end up right back where they started?

Jacksonville was seemingly taking a big risk by turning the organization over to Coen. The results were spectacular in his lone season as the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay, but was that enough of a resume for a successful head coach? As it turns out, the answer may be yes.

Although it's a little early to be making any definitive judgments, Coen is certainly not in over his head. He has immediately demonstrated the same schematic genius that made him a rising star with the Bucs. Most notably, the run game has enjoyed a similar breakout despite returning mostly the same personnel from last year. That unit is tied for third in EPA/rush, and Travis Etienne is topping all running backs with a career-high 6.1 yards per carry.

The passing game hasn't quite been on the same level, and Coen has to make a point of getting the ball to Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter more than he has. But there's even been some encouraging moments from that group, especially considering Trevor Lawrence has been a bottom-five quarterback in terms of inaccurate incompletions and has yet to record a single big-time throw on the year, according to PFF.

Coen also seems to know what he's doing in terms of staff building, a logical area of concern for a coach who climbed the ladder so quickly. Bringing in Anthony Campanile as his defensive coordinator should be considered the assistant coaching hire of the year so far. Jacksonville's defense has been shockingly productive despite what appeared to be a lackluster secondary on paper, leading the league with nine turnovers and sitting tied with the Rams for second in EPA/play. The Jaguars may have hit a home run with this new staff.

There was a lot to like when the Jets hired Glenn away from the Lions. Given the circus-like tendencies of this organization, there was no guarantee it could land a top candidate. Perhaps Glenn's history with the Jets worked in their favor, but it was a significant move nonetheless.

Glenn may well prove himself to be an excellent CEO-type head coach in time, and I'm actually pretty interested in what this offense could look like if (when) they get a chance to select a quarterback at the top of next year's draft. Tanner Engstrand was a good hire to lead that group, and it's nice to see New York embracing a run-heavy play style. I'm having some trouble putting on the rose-colored glasses when looking at this defense, though.

After an impressive run as the defensive coordinator in Detroit, finishing with a top-10 EPA/play mark despite a host of injuries, I was excited to see what Glenn could do with the Jets. This is a talented group with star-caliber players at all three levels. But you wouldn't know it from the early results, which have New York as a bottom-five unit by EPA/play.

A top-three standing in success rate illustrates that these issues are more about explosive plays than anything else. Can that be cleaned up with reps and a little bit of fine tuning? Considering what Glenn built in Detroit, I'm inclined to believe the Jets get there at some point. Still, it might take some time before ending the NFL's second-longest playoff drought (since 2010) becomes a realistic expectation.

Jerry Jones took a lot of heat for hiring Schottenheimer this offseason. While we should remain critical of the sham of a process that led him there, the Cowboys' new head coach was always going to deserve a chance to prove ownership right. He's off to a decent start on that front.

Schottenheimer, who had served as offensive coordinator for the last two years of Mike McCarthy's tenure, clearly knows what he's doing on that side of the ball. He's taken over play-calling duties as part of the promotion, and the results have been largely excellent despite missing CeeDee Lamb for essentially two of the first four games.

Dallas' 40-point output against Green Bay in Week 4 stands as this year's fourth-best offensive showing by EPA/play. But the Cowboys' big day becomes even more impressive when accounting for the fact that most other teams on that list had their offensive explosions against helpless defenses. The Packers, bolstered by the blockbuster move to acquire Micah Parsons, entered that revenge-game spot tied for third in defensive EPA/play and second in success rate.

Schottenheimer's defensive coordinator hire was a complete disaster, as that unit has been as bad as it gets. Are we sure Matt Eberflus wasn't a Jones decision? Bringing the former linebackers coach back to Dallas after his nightmare tenure in Chicago feels like ownership's trademark move of sticking with people it knows and trusts. Either way, that unfortunately has the potential to sabotage any good that Schottenheimer does in his first opportunity as a head coach. As for the things we know are in his control? So far, so good.

Can anyone honestly say they have any sense of what kind of coach Moore will be in New Orleans? I wasn't overly excited by this hire, as he'd become a bit of a journeyman coordinator before winning a Super Bowl with football's version of The Avengers in Philly. The Saints' situation also wasn't particularly appealing for anyone, let alone a first-time head coach.

Prime Bill Belichick wouldn't have been able to do much with a roster like the one the Saints are rolling out every week. And thanks to some salary-cap mismanagement dating back to the Sean Payton era, it'll require considerable patience before Moore and his staff even begin to turn the tide.

With that in mind, wins will be tough to come by this year. You'd likely have a hard time convincing most that a 3-14 record, for example, could be taken as a sign of better days ahead. But if the losses look anything like they did last week in Buffalo, Saints fans should probably feel cautiously optimistic about this new era.

Moore's ability to put Spencer Rattler and the rest of this offense in a position to be competitive on the road against a legitimate Super Bowl contender makes it fun to think about what might be possible a year or two from now, when the battles might be a little fairer. Don't let the frustration of early losses alone determine your opinion on Moore. He might have some juice.

Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.