NFL betting insights: How are bettors hoping the 2023 season unfolds?
This is the time of the year when football fans are bursting with anticipation. The start of the 2023 NFL season is only a day away.
The hundreds of different outcomes from an unpredictable 18-week regular season are why NFL football dominates nearly half of the sports calendar. It's also why bettors love speculating on how a season will unfold.
Let's take a look at what outcomes bettors are hoping for most from the 2023 campaign.
All data provided is from theScore Bet and Barstool Sportsbook.
Super Bowl winner
| Team | Odds | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | +650 | 10.4% | 17.3% |
| Bengals | +1000 | 10.4% | 11.5% |
| Bills | +850 | 9.4% | 7.1% |
| Chiefs | +550 | 9.0% | 16.5% |
| Jets | +1500 | 7.7% | 7.6% |
Bettors have made the Eagles their clear choice to win the Super Bowl LVIII after last year's heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs. Philly has garnered 10.4% of the bets - the same amount as the Bengals - while collecting 17.3% of the handle (total money wagered) to lead the Super Bowl favorite Chiefs in that category.
It's obvious why the Eagles are a popular pick. Jalen Hurts proved last year he's an MVP-caliber talent who can lead a loaded roster deep into the playoffs. Philadelphia is also in what many consider to be the far weaker conference, making its path to the Big Dance a lot less stressful.
Bettors who believe an AFC team will be crowned champions favor the Bengals. However, the Bills, Chiefs, and Jets are all in the top five in terms of percentage of bets, highlighting the fact that many believe the majority of the NFL's best teams reside in the AFC.
It's interesting to note that the Chiefs have received 9% of the bets but have accumulated the second-most handle at 16.5%. A large reason for this is they're the shortest priced at +550, which tends to mean recreational betters make fewer bets while those willing to back the favorite offer bigger wagers.
MVP winner
| Player | Odds | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | +1000 | 13.9% | 14% |
| Justin Fields | +2000 | 9.4% | 8.7% |
| Trevor Lawrence | +1600 | 8.7% | 6.6% |
| Lamar Jackson | +1400 | 8.2% | 7.0% |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1600 | 6.8% | 8.2% |
| Patrick Mahomes | +600 | 5.5% | 13% |
| Joe Burrow | +700 | 5.8% | 11.5% |
The love for the Eagles this season pours over into the MVP market, as Hurts leads the way in both the number of bets and handle.
His +1000 price is a tad longer than Mahomes and Burrow, making him appear like a better value bet than the other two front-runners.
Because they're the favorites, you'll see Mahomes and Burrow well down the list in terms of the number of bets but right near the top in terms of handle. Casual bettors tend to be willing to take a longer shot - someone like Justin Fields (+2000) or Trevor Lawrence (+1600) - rather than back the favorite for a lower payout.
Speaking of Fields, the Bears quarterback surprisingly sits second on the list for most bets. His +2000 odds are likely the driving force behind this action. However, bettors must also be hoping he can take a giant leap forward in his passing ability in Year 3 - much like Hurts did - and lead the Bears to a playoff birth.
In fact, that's exactly what bettors are hoping for. Fields' passing yard total for the season is set at 2,925.5, and a whopping 90.6% of the wagers have been placed on the over.
The Bears are +7500 to win the Super Bowl, +400 to win the NFC North, and +170 - an implied probability of 37% - to make the playoffs.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
| Player | Odds | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +900 | 19.0% | 17.1% |
| Bijan Robinson | +260 | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| Zay Flowers | +1500 | 13.1% | 13.5% |
| Anthony Richardson | +700 | 12.5% | 14.7% |
| Bryce Young | +500 | 6.2% | 9.7% |
Five players dominate the Offensive Rookie of the Year market in both bets and handle, led by Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs.
Gibbs was a surprise selection 12th overall, but no one questioned his talent. He should slide right into D'Andre Swift's role from last year as a dynamic playmaker out of the backfield. The fact that he'll split carries with David Montgomery hasn't scared away bettors.
Bijan Robinson, the first running back selected in 2023, is the favorite to win the award. Yet the former Texas standout's short odds haven't deterred bettors as he's accumulated the most handle.
First overall pick Bryce Young is the second favorite behind Robinson, but Anthony Richardson is the most popular bet among first-year quarterbacks. The Texans' C.J. Stroud, who's +900 to win the award, didn't crack the top five in either category.
Here's more data on who bettors are hoping to lead the NFL in three offensive categories.
Most passing yards
| Player | Odds | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | +400 | 32.0% | 27.9% |
| Trevor Lawrence | +2000 | 10.4% | 6.2% |
| Joe Burrow | +900 | 9.8% | 7.7% |
| Patrick Mahomes | +275 | 8.9% | 39.5% |
| Josh Allen | +1000 | 5.7% | 2.0% |
Most rushing yards
| Player | Odds | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | +750 | 15.2% | 19.7% |
| Nick Chubb | +425 | 13.6% | 20.7% |
| Derrick Henry | +850 | 10.7% | 10.1% |
| Tony Pollard | +1600 | 9.1% | 7.8% |
| Saquon Barkley | +1500 | 7.6% | 7.9% |
Most receiving yards
| Player | Odds | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | +500 | 17.9% | 26.0% |
| Tyreek Hill | +850 | 14.4% | 16.0% |
| Garrett Wilson | +1600 | 10.5% | 8.3% |
| Chris Olave | +2500 | 9.7% | 11.9% |
| Calvin Ridley | +3500 | 7.6% | 6.6% |