NFL Week 14 teasers: Deja vu in Denver?
One of our seven teaser legs last week was ruined mere hours after publication, which is why we teach novice bettors that it's less about the teams and more about the numbers. As soon as the Daniel Jones injury news hit, it should've been clear that a Giants teaser was no longer in play as the line rose with Mike Glennon starting at quarterback.
The only other loser of the group came on the game's final play in Detroit, as the previously reliable-to-lose Lions pulled out the victory with no time remaining on the clock. If you can't trust them to lose, who can you trust?
Not all teaser legs are created equal. The biggest mistake novice bettors make is teasing through zero because they're wasting valuable price points on a number the game probably won't land on: a tie. So, how can we maximize the six-point move? How can we get what we're paying for at -270 per leg?
Let's use the Seahawks' visit to the Texans on Sunday as an example:
| SPREAD | ODDS |
|---|---|
| SEA -7.5 | -110 |
| SEA -7 | -125 |
| SEA -6.5 | -145 |
| SEA -6 | -163 |
| SEA -5.5 | -175 |
| SEA -5 | -180 |
| SEA -4.5 | -185 |
| SEA -4 | -200 |
| SEA -3.5 | -205 |
| SEA -3 | -270 |
| SEA -2.5 | -300 |
| SEA -2 | -315 |
| SEA -1.5 | -320 |
The alternative spread gives you the Seahawks -3 at -270. Would you rather that, or the -1.5 that a teaser leg provides at the same price? What about Seahawks -1.5 at -270 versus the moneyline of -340?
The answers are obvious, but we'll need some options to pair with Seahawks -1.5, which is why we turn to the teaser basket for the best options to capture as many key numbers as possible.
Teaser basket
Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 14:
| TEAM | SPREAD | TEASER LEG |
|---|---|---|
| Falcons | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Ravens | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Seahawks | -7.5 | -1.5 |
| Broncos | -8 | -2 |
| Bills | +3 | +9 |
| Rams | +2.5 | +8.5 |
Even if I lean towards the Panthers, Browns, and Cardinals as -2.5 home favorites, getting any of their opponents at +8.5 is definitely worth the -270 price.
As road touchdown favorites, the Seahawks feel a lot like the trap we fell into with the Vikings last week, except the Texans are the unlikely trappers instead of the Lions. Do you feel lucky? At least the Broncos have the benefit of a legitimate home-field advantage and the assumption that Detroit is unlikely to win two games in a row after a 360-day gap between its last two victories.
Lastly, the Bills can be teased up through the key numbers we look for, but there are two considerations. If you like the Bills, then you might be able to get them at +3.5 (-110), which is the better deal. The other reason not to tease Buffalo is that if you catch the Buccaneers on the wrong day, they can blow you out, and -270 is a hefty price to pay to get Tom Brady'd right in the heart.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.