NFL Week 7 best bets: Lay the points with Packers, Bills
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Well, that was brutal. A winless Week 6 brings us below .500 on the year, but this week offers plenty of value. Here are my best bets for Week 7.

Packers (-3.5, 57) @ Texans, 1 p.m. ET

I've been staring at this line all weekend, and I still don't buy it. The Packers have been a stellar bet all year and looked like one of the league's best teams before getting dominated by an elite Buccaneers squad on the road. Now they're short favorites over a one-win squad that can't cover to save its life?

The Texans are fun offensively, but they have serious issues on defense. They've allowed 177.5 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry - both worst in the NFL - and they were powerless a week ago against Derrick Henry (212 yards, 9.6 YPC). Things won't get much easier this week against one of the most efficient ground games in the league.

The Packers have three regular-season losses under Matt LaFleur. After each loss, they came out firing and won convincingly. Expect a similar result Sunday.

Pick: Packers -3.5

Panthers @ Saints (-7.5, 51.5), 1 p.m.

I wrote earlier this week about the Panthers' favorable chances to upset the Saints straight up, so clearly I'm all in on the value against the spread, too. Carolina has performed like a top-half team this season and ranks just below New Orleans in key advanced metrics, yet oddsmakers are pricing this like an impending blowout.

Do you really trust the Saints to blow out anyone, especially with Michael Thomas considered a long shot to play? In four games without him, they've lost outright to the Raiders (+4) and Packers (+3) and had to erase double-digit deficits against the Lions (+3) and Chargers (+7).

For whatever reason, oddsmakers have priced these two quarterbacks inefficiently for years in this particular spot. Drew Brees is riding a 14-28-1 ATS run as a home favorite, while Teddy Bridgewater is 14-4 ATS in his career as a road underdog. Until the market corrects, take full advantage.

Pick: Panthers +7.5

Bills (-11.5, 46) @ Jets, 1 p.m.

This one shouldn't take a lot of convincing, but I'll try my hand, anyway. The Jets are horrible. They're the first team to start 0-6 ATS / SU since 2011, and they've lost those six games by an average of 18.3 points, which is on pace for the worst point differential in NFL history over a full season.

This line would be higher if the Bills hadn't coughed up two consecutive games in ugly fashion, but that shouldn't concern bettors too much given the faith oddsmakers are placing in them here. Double-digit road favorites are a stellar 16-2-1 ATS since late 2017, winning by an average of 22.3 points in 19 outright victories.

As of Friday, Sam Darnold is expected to reprise his starting role this Sunday after missing two games with a shoulder injury. Does it even matter? The Jets quarterback is 10-20 ATS in his career, including 2-7 ATS in his last nine, and his supporting cast is getting worse by the day. Don't get cute with this one.

Pick: Bills -11.5

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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NFL Week 7 best bets: Lay the points with Packers, Bills
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