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Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Monday night.
It's hard enough to bet against Patrick Mahomes in any given week, and it's even harder as an underdog - a position where he's 5-0-1 against the spread with four outright wins in his career. He's also 5-1 ATS in his last six against teams with a winning record, and 5-0 ATS in his last five games with a total of 50 or higher.
Lamar Jackson is 8-3 ATS versus teams above .500 and 3-0 ATS in his career with a total of at least 50, including 2-0 ATS in two matchups with the Chiefs. Yet he's disappointed as a home favorite, with a 5-10-1 career record ATS in that spot. Mahomes is 10-5-2 ATS in his career on the road.
The trends also favor Kansas City in the coaching department. Andy Reid is 55-31-2 ATS as a road underdog in his career, including a 9-1-1 record ATS over his last 11 contests. John Harbaugh, the 2019 Coach of the Year, is 12-20-1 ATS in his last 33, giving 3.5 points or more at home.
If you're eyeing the over on a high total, history favors it. Playing over on a total this high has clearly been profitable in three of the last four seasons - with a 32-22-3 record in that span - while totals above 50 have gone 16-9-3 to the over since 2019.
Patrick Mahomes under 17.5 rushing yards (-103)
The Ravens, whose defense has to corral Jackson every week in practice, are better at containing quarterbacks than most teams. And it's translated to games - Baltimore has allowed 8.3 rushing yards per game to opposing signal-callers in 2019, third-best in the NFL, and has allowed just 20 rushing yards through two games this season.
Mahomes got loose for 54 rushing yards a week ago against the Chargers, but had zero rushing yards in the opener and topped 17.5 yards in just five of his last 17 regular-season games.
Mark Andrews to score a touchdown (+125)
Mark Andrews is a scoring machine. The Ravens tight end has nine touchdowns in his last nine regular-season games, with at least one in six of those contests, and narrowly missed on another score in Week 2.
The Chiefs' defense was among the worst at defending tight ends in 2019 and struggled against Jordan Akins and Hunter Henry in two games this season. At plus-money, betting on Andrews to score is a must-bet prop.
Ravens over 28.5 points (-113)
There's no way around it: the Chiefs' rushing defense is really bad, and the Ravens' rushing offense is historically good. Baltimore abandoned its run game late against Kansas City in 2019 because of Mahomes' explosive second quarter, but the Ravens still put up 28 points despite two failed two-point conversions in the fourth quarter.
Their secondary is much-improved from that first meeting and should outlast an onslaught from Mahomes. But can the Chiefs survive Jackson and co.? The Ravens have scored at least 30 points in nine of their last 12 regular-season games, and they'll reach that mark again on Monday.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.