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After impressive wins in Week 1, the Seattle Seahawks (-4, 45) and New England Patriots face off for the first time since 2016, when Seattle's goal-line stand thwarted New England on Sunday night. Can the visitors flip the script this time around?
Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Sunday night.
Good luck fading the 'Hawks in prime time. Since Russell Wilson took over in 2014, Seattle is 20-9-3 against the spread in the late-night slot and 12-4-1 ATS in that spot at home. The team is especially sharp when giving points, with a 13-3-2 ATS record as prime-time favorites under Wilson and an average scoring margin of 13.6 points.
The same can't be said for Cam Newton, who's 6-13 ATS in his career in prime time and 1-4 ATS in that spot as a road 'dog. The Patriots quarterback has had his fair share of struggles on the road in recent years, owning a 10-16-1 ATS record since late December 2015 and a 2-8 ATS mark over his last 10 road games.
One area that does excel in those spots is the over, which is 23-12-1 when Newton is a road 'dog with a 16-6 run since 2014. Conversely, the Seahawks are 7-1 to the over in their last eight night games and 24-10 to the over against AFC teams under Wilson. They've also gone over in five straight vs. the Patriots and five straight against Newton-led teams.
Russell Wilson under 235.5 passing yards (+108)
Wilson threw it all over the yard against the Falcons in Week 1, topping 300 passing yards for the first time in his last eight regular-season games. The matchup played a key role - Atlanta has allowed at least 236 passing yards in 10 of its last 16 games, while the Patriots have done so just twice in their last 14 games.
The best way to beat New England is on the ground, which has long been the offensive focus of Seattle. Don't let one strong performance through the air detract from the most obvious outcome on Sunday.
Sony Michel under 34.5 rushing yards (-118)
The Seahawks' run defense was one of the few areas on that side of the ball that didn't need an overhaul after last season. Sure enough, it performed admirably in Week 1, holding the Falcons to a combined 72 rushing yards on 3.4 yards per carry.
The Patriots are likely to attack it anyway, but expect much of the damage on the ground to come via Newton runs. Michael tallied 37 yards against a soft Dolphins defense; he won't sniff that number vs. Seattle.
In Week 1, the Seahawks finally "let Russ cook" to the tune of 322 passing yards and four touchdowns. That won't happen Sunday against an elite Patriots secondary daring to be challenged, but Seattle is more than capable of winning with its bread and butter ground game, exposing the weakest part of New England's reworked defense.
That would make the under a solid play, too, though there's still a chance Wilson finds daylight in the passing game a few too many times. Either way, this game is trending the Seahawks' way, and there isn't enough talent for the Patriots to stop them.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.