Tom Brady 2020 player props: Overs galore
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Tom Brady in a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform will never not look weird.
After 20 seasons and six Super Bowl titles with the New England Patriots, the soon-to-be 43-year-old will play for a different team for the first time in his career.
It's certainly a shake-up to both the betting and fantasy communities, which will have to account for a new scheme and supporting cast, as well as an unfamiliar slate of opponents. It should make for a fun handicap on Brady's individual props for 2020, which is what we're diving into today.
Brady's 2019 player profile
The veteran quarterback didn't have a ton of support in 2019. The Patriots finished No. 15 in the league in offensive DVOA despite the signal-caller ranking 10th in overall passer rating. And while he'll have plenty of offensive weapons in Tampa Bay, we've already seen signs of decline in the 14-time Pro-Bowler's game.
Here's how Brady ranked in various passing statistics last season:
Snap share: 1
Passing attempts: 4
Deep-ball attempts: 15
Supporting cast efficiency: 17
Protection rate: 18
Passing yards: 7
Completed air yards: 10
Pass attempt distance: 10
Money throws: 12
Interceptable passes: 17
Danger plays: 16
Over/Under 4,300.5 passing yards
It's actually quite amazing that Brady was as close to this number last year (4,057) as he was when you factor in the lack of talent at the skill positions and the fact the Patriots played almost exclusively in a positive game script and finished in the middle of the pack in the NFL in terms of passing play frequency.
Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians' system is tailor-made for quarterbacks to throw for a ton of yards. Over his last four years between the Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals, Arians' offenses ranked in the top eight of pass play frequency in each season. During his five-year stint with the Cardinals, the franchise ranked second in air yards per attempt in the league. And while Jameis Winston's claim to fame last season was throwing 30 picks, he also shattered this prop by more than 800 yards.
The skilled corps Brady played with in 2019 pales in comparison to who he'll be throwing to this fall - a group consisting of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate is what QBs dream of. If Tampa Bay continues to throw the ball at a similar rate to last season, Brady will have no problem getting past this number.
Pick: Over
Over/Under 30.5 touchdown passes
I'd recommend going over the total here, too, as we've seen the number drop from an opener of 32.5 to 30.5. Consider the athleticism at Brady's disposal once the field shrinks: Evans is a jump-ball target, Howard is a mismatch, and Godwin and Brate are coming off a season in which they combined for 13 receiving touchdowns.
Brady was No. 1 in passing attempts inside the red zone last season, which fits right into Arians' philosophy. No team threw for more yards in the red zone than the Cardinals did during Arians' five-year tenure.
Pick: Over
Over/Under 10.5 interceptions
The first thing that stands out here is the number of "danger plays" Brady committed last season. He was No. 16 in that category and No. 17 in interceptable passes, but he registered only eight picks. That's some good fortune, and the increased frequency at which Brady will throw in 2020 likely signals an increase in turnovers. Each of the last four qualified starting quarterbacks under Arians has averaged 19.3 interceptions over a single season, with all four throwing more than 10.
Pick: Over
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.