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Every week during the NFL season, theScore's betting writers release their best bets. Each writer has been given an imaginary $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the campaign. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.
Odds are courtesy of theScore Bet.
Thomas Casale ($1,233)
Season record: 11-8-2, +233
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Total: 49
I have $20,000 riding on the Ravens winning the Super Bowl, so I've seen every snap of Baltimore's season. What I know is the Ravens are the most physical team in the NFL, and if an opponent doesn't show up to play, it'll get mauled. We saw this in Week 12 when the Ravens hung 45 points on the lifeless Rams and ran L.A. out of its own building. The Browns were the AFC North team that was supposed to compete for a Super Bowl berth, but instead, Cleveland has been a disaster. The Browns gave minimal effort last week in Arizona where the Cardinals scored 38 points. The Ravens' team total this week is 30, a number they have reached seven times this season.
The Browns are the last team to beat Baltimore, 40-25, in Week 4. The Ravens' top-ranked rushing offense still racked up 173 yards and gained 6.0 yards per carry. However, that was one of the few times this season that the Ravens fell behind in the second half and had to ditch the run. I don't expect that to happen again Sunday. Baltimore's ground game should roll over the Browns' defense, which is allowing an average of 135 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per attempt this season.
I don't want to lay 10 points on the road here, so I'll grab the over on the Ravens' team total in a game where the Browns may not even get off the bus.
Pick: Ravens team total over 30 ($100)
Alex Kolodziej ($980)
Season record: 12-9, -$20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons
Total: 46.5
I hit this over early at 45.5. The number then jumped to 46.5 shortly after. I agree with the move, and it's not one that overly affects my stance on the game, seeing as it hasn't hit a key number yet.
I don't trust either defense, in a dome, with nothing to play for. Jacksonville ranks No. 21 in pass defense DVOA and No. 31 in rush defense; Atlanta is No. 27 in pass defense and No. 13 against the rush. D.J. Chark should be back for the Jaguars, and this is a favorable matchup for Matt Ryan and the Falcons' offense. Expect plenty of points.
Pick: Over 46.5 ($50)
C Jackson Cowart ($926)
Season record: 16-14-3, -$74
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Total: 37
This total keeps dropping ahead of what should be a below-freezing day, but the weather is far from the only reason to bet under here. The Bills and Patriots are two of the best under teams in the league behind elite secondaries, which should be an issue for a pair of quarterbacks who struggle with downfield accuracy and have mediocre run games to support them.
Low totals have also been money this year, with lines of 40 or below going 16-5 (76.2%) to the under. The Bills are 6-0 to the under in that spot and should reward bettors here, too.
Pick: Under 37 ($75)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 50.5
There's a chance that Seattle could get to this number on its own against Arizona's 32nd-ranked secondary, per PFF. Hyperbole aside, it's hard to imagine the Seahawks not hitting 30 points with Russell Wilson and his collection of downfield threats, even without Josh Gordon.
Conversely, safety Quandre Diggs' injury is significant for Seattle's shaky secondary, which could struggle against Kyler Murray's cannon arm. Like unders on low totals, overs on high totals have been a nice bet, and this spot looks like a good opportunity for a high-scoring game.
Pick: Over 50.5 ($75)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+260) at Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers (+250) at Indianapolis Colts
All four of these teams stink. None of them have anything to play for beyond pride and opportunity, yet the Falcons and Colts are laying 7 and 6.5 points, respectively. Both the Jags and Panthers are worthy spread bets, but life's too short to sweat out bad teams in Week 16 side action. Go for gold and take two live underdogs to win outright.
Pick: Jaguars-Panthers ML parlay ($25 to win $290)
Alex Moretto ($895)
Season record: 16-17-1, -$105
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Total: 37.5
Frankly, I hate betting unders on such low totals. I hate betting unders, period. But, sometimes the occasion calls for it. In four games against top-10 defenses in DVOA this season, the Jets have amassed a total of 23 points (5.8 per game). The Steelers rank third. Sam Darnold is completing just 45% of his passes when under pressure this season and the Jets are 0-4 in games where he's been sacked at least three times, averaging just 13.7 points. Pittsburgh leads the league in sacks.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers are averaging a meager 4.9 yards per play and just 15.5 points per game since Devlin Hodges took over for Mason Rudolph. It's going to be a fairly public play, but I genuinely can't see a scenario in which this game goes over the total.
Pick: Under 37.5 ($100)
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-1)
There's actually a lot to like about Cincinnati's play over the past month despite its stranglehold on the first overall pick - even with a win here. Since reinstalling Andy Dalton as the starting quarterback, the Bengals are averaging 5.3 yards per play, while giving up just 4.8, largely due to the drastic improvements on the defensive front. This isn't as horrible a team as the record suggests.
The Dolphins are, though, and the grind of this historic campaign - they're the first franchise in NFL history to use 80 players in one season - feels like it's caught up to them. They've allowed an average of 33.4 points per game over the past five weeks and shouldn't prove much resistance to the Bengals' offense, which finally seems to be hitting its stride. Better late than never, right Zac Taylor?
Pick: Bengals ML -105 ($100)