AFC East betting preview and predictions
The AFC East may not be all that fun, but it's damn sure consistent.
As parity strikes across the league and the balance of power routinely shifts in multiple divisions, the AFC East has long been ruled by the New England Patriots, who've taken home 10 straight divisional crowns and 15 of the last 16. The only thing at stake for the rest of the division is to see who can close the gap with New England. But for now, the defending champs once again reign supreme.
Here, we dive into the best bets, value plays, and picks to avoid for the AFC East in 2019.
(Over prices in parentheses)
| Team | Win Total | AFC East Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 11 (-140) | 1-5 | 6-1 |
| Jets | 7.5 (-125) | 5-1 | 100-1 |
| Bills | 7 (-125) | 10-1 | 100-1 |
| Dolphins | 4.5 (-130) | 60-1 | 500-1 |
Best bet
Dolphins under 4.5 wins (+110)
The Dolphins put up arguably the flukiest 7-9 season in 2018. Miami was -114 in overall point differential, won every single game by eight points or fewer, and was an expected 4.5-win team despite playing a middle-of-the-pack schedule. Now the 'Fins break in a new head coach, as well as a quarterback who'll turn 37 in November.
Their strength of schedule is again right in the middle, but if we use their opponents' projected 2019 win totals instead of their winning percentages from last season, the Dolphins will face the seventh-toughest slate this season. Miami will get a couple wins it shouldn't - that's just the nature of the NFL. But even with a slim margin for error on such a short number, I don't think the Dolphins have enough talent on their roster to win five games.
Best value play
Patriots to win the AFC East (1-5)
The term "value" often gets misconstrued. I can hear it now: How in the world is a -500 favorite to win the division a value play?
Because I don't see a scenario in which three teams with 100-1 or better odds to win the Super Bowl will finish with a better record than the champs.
There's been a lot of talk about the Bills and Jets' improvements, but it feels more like Patriots fatigue than a belief that a pair of struggling franchises can hold a candle to New England's experience and coaching.
Somehow, the Pats still feel short in this market.
Bet to avoid
Bills over 7 wins (-125)
Bettors have been drinking some Bills juice this offseason. We assume every quarterback will take a massive step in Year 2, but Josh Allen's running ability masked some flaws last season, as he completed only 52.8 percent of his passes and registered more picks than touchdowns.
Buffalo's defense only has one way to go - down - and the offense attempted to patch up a dismal skill corps with a couple of average receivers. Some expect a huge leap for the Bills, but we might actually see a regression from last year's six-win club.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.